GDPNow's 5.4% Forecast Was Way Off
Remember the administration crowing when the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model said in early Jan that Q4 GDP growth was 5.4%? Latest official estimate: 0.5%. Moral: Ignore "tracking" models. And Trump's econ team.
March Payroll Surge Likely Unsustainable, New Data Shows
If you think the reported jump in payrolls in March is sustainable, I have some news: https://t.co/zRB6pq1mqD
Iran's 2,000 Mines: Old Tech, High Risk, No Limits
On the mines: - They are old tech, but they work. A WWI-era mine almost sank the USS Roberts in 1988. - Iran reportedly has ~2000 mines. Including modern rising mines - Laying the latter is more complex than old ones. They might...
WTI Surge Pushes US Gas to $3
With WTI now at $87, the oil price spike is now definitely in the big-enough-to-matter-to-the-US-domestic-economy zone. National average gas price is headed to about $3.80; was just $2.90 at start of Feb. I expect this increase will prove extremely popular.
Trump’s 5.4% GDP Claim Was Just a Model
Remember when Trump was bragging about Q4 GDP growth, quoting a 5.4% rate? That was the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, not the actual. Now we have the actual: 1.4%. Moral: Don't take GDP "trackers" or anyone citing them, remotely seriously....
Biden's Trade Deficit Slightly Lower than Trump's, Not 78% Drop
So, for the record: The trade deficit in the first 11 months of the Trump administration was $839.5B. In the same period in 2024, the final Biden year, it was $806.6B. And if you think this year's performance is a...
