The Real Rate of Inflation In Japan: Official Numbers Vs. BOJ Correction For Subsidies
The Bank of Japan has begun publishing inflation rates that strip out government subsidies, such as gasoline price support, to show the underlying price pressure. These “core‑without‑subsidy” figures differ across categories—total prices, excluding fresh food, excluding fresh food and energy, and excluding all food and energy. The BOJ says the adjusted numbers will guide its upcoming policy meeting, scheduled for next Tuesday. The mixed signals from the various measures have sparked debate among analysts about the true trajectory of Japan’s price growth.
Will BOJ Rate Hike to 1% Be Tipping Point, Or Just A Step In Gradual Normalization?
The Bank of Japan announced a policy rate increase to 1%, marking the end of its negative‑rate era. While some market watchers view the move as a tipping point for financial markets, the author argues it is a measured step...
I'll Be Speaking At Temple University of Japan May 21, 6:30 PM
The speaker will present at Temple University Japan on Thursday, May 21, from 6:30 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. Seats are limited, and attendees must reserve a spot by emailing Robert Dujarric. The event is exclusive to paid subscribers and will be held...
Bessent Hints BOJ Should Raise Rates to Boost Yen
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that the Bank of Japan should raise interest rates at its June meeting to bolster the yen, which has slipped to roughly ¥155 per dollar. He framed the comment as a subtle "jawbone" intervention, suggesting...
I'll Be Speaking At Temple University of Japan May 21, 6:30 PM
On May 21, a speaker will address an audience at Temple University of Japan in Tokyo from 6:30 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. Seats are limited, and attendees must reserve by emailing Robert Dujarric. The invitation is sent exclusively to paid subscribers of...
In Rare 6-3 Vote, BOJ Delays Interest Rate Hike Again
The Bank of Japan’s policy board voted 6‑3 to postpone a rate hike to 1%, marking a rare split decision. BOJ now projects 2024 GDP growth at just 0.5%, half of its January outlook, as the Iran‑Ukraine conflict drags on....
Why Rates on Ultra-Long Gov’t Bonds Hit Record Levels
Japan’s 30‑ and 40‑year government bonds surged to record yields earlier this year, breaching the 2% threshold for the first time in decades. The move coincides with the Bank of Japan’s pending decision on whether to lift the overnight policy...
Shunto Provides Little Evidence For BOJ To Hike Rates
Japan’s spring wage negotiations (Shunto) project a 5.26% headline increase for unionized workers, translating to roughly a 3.5% rise in base pay. Across all employees, the average wage gain is about 2.3%, well below the Bank of Japan’s 3% target...
Iran War Worsens BOJ’s Stagflation Dilemma, Postpones Rate Hike
The ongoing Iran war is intensifying the Bank of Japan’s stagflation dilemma, forcing a choice between raising rates or maintaining ultra‑low policy for longer. Core inflation excluding food and energy fell further below the BOJ’s 2% target in January, while...
Chinese Automakers: Pioneering Technology, But Plunging Domestic Sales & Profits
Chinese automakers have become the first to mass‑produce EVs featuring three breakthrough technologies: five‑minute charging, solid‑state batteries, and sodium‑ion cells that sidestep critical minerals. Despite this technical edge, their profit margins are collapsing as a fierce price war and excess...