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Jason Furman

Jason Furman

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Harvard economist; former Chair of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers. Posts timely analysis on inflation, wages, interest rates, and macro policy.

Recent Posts

Accounting Rules Reveal Shutdown’s Massive Real GDP Loss
Social•Feb 20, 2026

Accounting Rules Reveal Shutdown’s Massive Real GDP Loss

A fun(?) 🧵 on how nerdy government accounting rules had a big impact on Q4 GDP. And how they reflect how wasteful the 43-day government shutdown was. TL;DR: Small reduction in nominal federal spending in Q4. But a big decline in what we got for our dollars. So real down a lot.

By Jason Furman
Data Hints at First Post‑WWII US Soft Landing
Social•Feb 13, 2026

Data Hints at First Post‑WWII US Soft Landing

After this week's employment & inflation data it is starting to look like the elusive soft landing may finally happen. Would be the first indisputable US post-WW II soft landing. We've had false hopes before dashed by the underlying economic dynamics &...

By Jason Furman
Core CPI Spikes in January, Steadies at 2.5% Yearly
Social•Feb 13, 2026

Core CPI Spikes in January, Steadies at 2.5% Yearly

Core CPI inflation rose during the month of January. But it fell and was relatively muted over longer periods of time--although still some concern the numbers a bit lower due to shutdown-related quirks. Annual rates: 1 month: 3.3% 6 months: 2.5% 12 months: 2.5%

By Jason Furman
CBO Underestimates AI's Productivity Boost, Forecasts Too Low
Social•Feb 11, 2026

CBO Underestimates AI's Productivity Boost, Forecasts Too Low

CBO is mostly dismissive of the effects of AI on productivity growth (overly so IMHO). They expect *slowing* potential labor force productivity as the modest AI boost to TFP is swamped by the reduction in capital services. I would take the over...

By Jason Furman
Jobs Surge, Unemployment Drops: GDP Gains Confirm Strength
Social•Feb 11, 2026

Jobs Surge, Unemployment Drops: GDP Gains Confirm Strength

On the surface a strong jobs report (130K jobs & unemployment falls to 4.3%). And just about every detail makes that stronger: participation up, involuntary part-time down, hours up, wages up. The mystery of strong GDP and weak jobs is being resolved...

By Jason Furman
Underlying Inflation Near 2.5%, Likely to Ease Further
Social•Feb 10, 2026

Underlying Inflation Near 2.5%, Likely to Ease Further

The ECI data out this morning is consistent with the thesis that underlying inflation is around 2.5%. And labor market looseness suggests that is more likely to go down than up. Wages ex volatile incentive pay have been steadily growing at...

By Jason Furman