Real‑time Shelter Shows Zero Inflation, Official CPI Overstated
Big moves in CPI focused on oil and commodity impacts Shelter continues to be a place where real world indicators are much lower than official stats. Our real time shelter indicator over trailing 12m shows 0 price increase vs official shelter which printed at 3%. Our alt-core CPI shows <1.5% vs 2.6% officially. Tricky dynamics for the Fed here with the money supply moving up sharply last month.
M2 Surges >10% Annualized, Fed Cuts Now Unlikely
While all time high gets the headline, the annualized growth rate in this latest monthly money supply report important to watch—over 10%. This makes fed rate cuts harder to see
Tokenized Money Market Funds Extend the Bank Walk
My friend @biancoresearch used to call it the bank walk from checking accounts to money market funds. From firsthand experience, paying all my bills via a tokenized money market fund, the bank walk is destined to continue IMO even if most...
Capital‑Efficient International Overlay Adds Global Exposure Without Selling US
Our latest 90/60 ETF idea out today This idea came from a client in our capital efficient overlays w/ gold. Problem: current portfolio was 100% US stocks --likes idea of adding international, but doesn't want to sell US core. Solution:...
Real‑time Shelter Data Cuts Inflation Outlook to Under 2%
Update on our Alt Inflation Indicators: Real time shelter continues to run quite below official stats. We show more real time shelter running just +0.2% vs 3.0% in BLS stats. Subbing this alt shelter into CPI, we get headline inflation < 1.6%...
Commodities Under 2% of ETF Assets—Gold Over‑crowded, Under‑held
When I look at total assets of the ETF market, commodities less than 2% of total assets. ETF investors definitely under weight
Passive Investing Still Beats Human‑Run Index Committees
Passive has been tough to beat -for sure—but 20 years ago I did a study “What Happened to the Original Stocks in the S&P 500 index” and the recent experience is far from unique. The committee members are human still.
