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Jurrien Timmer

Jurrien Timmer

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Director of Global Macro, Fidelity; macro charts and U.S. equity cycle context.

Recent Posts

Gold Tops Sharpe Rankings; Bitcoin Shows Hopeful Higher Low
Social•Feb 20, 2026

Gold Tops Sharpe Rankings; Bitcoin Shows Hopeful Higher Low

For the spectrum of asset classes that I track, equities remain in the middle with modest 52-week Sharpe Ratios, while gold remains on top and Bitcoin at the bottom. Gold continues to exhibit very resilient behavior, recovering quickly from corrections. This is what super-bull markets are made of. Bitcoin has been more challenged as we all know, but I think it’s constructive that it made a higher low on Friday while the more speculative equities made lower lows. That’s a hopeful sign, especially after reaching the $65k support zone.

By Jurrien Timmer
Soft CPI at 2.4% Signals Declining Inflation Trend
Social•Feb 19, 2026

Soft CPI at 2.4% Signals Declining Inflation Trend

Last week’s CPI report came in soft at 2.4%, which was understandably well received by the bond market. The Truflation index, which has plummeted to a 0.7% year-over-year rate of change, hinted at a softer turn for the CPI. https://t.co/ZsIPypfaNW

By Jurrien Timmer
AI Productivity Gains Pave Way for Fed Rate Cut
Social•Feb 19, 2026

AI Productivity Gains Pave Way for Fed Rate Cut

The combination of decent economic data (see last week’s employment data) and the softer inflation report might be anecdotal evidence that the promise of an AI-driven productivity boom (which would lift the economy’s non-inflationary speed limit) is becoming a reality....

By Jurrien Timmer
Earnings and Dividends Now Power Half of Market Gains
Social•Feb 19, 2026

Earnings and Dividends Now Power Half of Market Gains

One positive aspect of the evolution of this market cycle has been how the market has become less reliant on multiple expansion. Earnings and dividends now comprise almost half of the cumulative gains since October 2022, with the P/E expansion...

By Jurrien Timmer
Rising Capex May Curb Buybacks, Pressure Valuations
Social•Feb 19, 2026

Rising Capex May Curb Buybacks, Pressure Valuations

With credit spreads low and profit margins seemingly on the rise, valuations seem OK at current levels. These two variables are important drivers for the equity risk premium, which is currently at 4.0% according to my version of the DCF...

By Jurrien Timmer
Mega‑Cap Weakness Could Drag Entire S&P Down
Social•Feb 18, 2026

Mega‑Cap Weakness Could Drag Entire S&P Down

The reason this is important (even though it’s only a few stocks) is that the Mag 7 is so big that if they should fall they could well take the S&P 500 (cap-weighted) index with it. History shows (below) that...

By Jurrien Timmer
Equal‑Weighted S&P Nears Cap‑Weighted Levels Amid Broadening Market
Social•Feb 18, 2026

Equal‑Weighted S&P Nears Cap‑Weighted Levels Amid Broadening Market

The market has been broadening out nicely as of late, and since the April 2025 Tariff tantrum low, the equal-weighted S&P 500 index has almost caught up to the cap-weighted index (34% vs 38%). It has been good to see....

By Jurrien Timmer
Equities Up, Trend Flattens Amid 4% Yield, Rotation
Social•Feb 18, 2026

Equities Up, Trend Flattens Amid 4% Yield, Rotation

As for the markets, last week the Dow briefly reached the 50k milestone while the S&P 500 continued to hang out just below 7,000. The 10-year yield has been flirting with 4% again and the terminal rate for the Fed’s...

By Jurrien Timmer
M7 Tech Stocks Test Low, Threatening Repeat Correction
Social•Feb 18, 2026

M7 Tech Stocks Test Low, Threatening Repeat Correction

However, as the AI narrative continues to unfold, from euphoria a few months ago to handwringing now (over the commodification of the SaaS stocks and the unknown ROI of hyperscaler capex), the Might Mag 7 is showing some strains. The...

By Jurrien Timmer