Energy Costs Crush Low‑income Workers, Warns Fed
Note To Fed: Energy Costs Are Crushing the Workers Who Can Least Afford It https://t.co/XD2UPmrpFN via @hedgeye
US Inflation Stays High, No Fed Cut Yet
Bond Market Message = #HFL = Higher For Longer on US Inflation with no Fed Rate Cut bailout (yet)
Oil Surges 8.2%, Signaling New Quad3 Cycle Highs
Did you buy more Oil and Energy Stocks when they were on sale last week? Oil inflating another +8.2% here with immediate-term upside in our Risk Range™ Signal to new #Quad3 Cycle Highs https://t.co/ye9Xfr03uQ
Germany's Market Slides 1.1% Amid Quad3 Stagflation
GERMANY: been an easier short than $SPY (which I'm not short), down another -1.1% here this morning with #Quad3 Stagflation hitting that economy hard this summer https://t.co/GlXz59NyOM
CTA Buying Surge May Quickly Flip to Selling
The Flows @t1alpha CTA Buying (epic last week) can easily become Selling Will walk you through the math on The Macro Show https://t.co/Z8lRHULEn1
Bitcoin Plunges as USD Climbs, -0.90 Correlation
Bitcoin straight down on this USD up move. The immediate-term TRADE Correlation between the 2 Assets is -0.90 https://t.co/6OnxLjiG4v
Beyond Price: Analyze Volume and Volatility Momentum
When you "look" at markets, are you just looking at the color and the "Moving Average" of price or the ROC of the volume and volatility of that price? https://t.co/qgJeZy0Z5c
SPX Implied Vol Premium Plummets From 95% to 13
$SPX Implied Vol collapsed to a +13% premium (vs. 30-day realized) vs. a +95% premium 1-month ago https://t.co/JxuNpzgXz1
Gold Volatility Signals Caution for US Equities
Cross Asset Class Vol as of Friday's close = yellow lights for US Equities; Gold Vol in particular matters at this level https://t.co/VoSL6lvMfU
SPY Volume Decelerates After Seven Straight Gains
VOLUME: CTAs were still chasing Friday, but total volume continued to decelerate post 7 straight up days for $SPY https://t.co/4GpuK0sjtf
SPY's Friday Rally Masked 18:1 Downside Risk
For those of you who chased $SPY on green on Friday, there was only 18:1 downside vs. upside in our immediate-term Risk Range™ Signal. No worries
Core Short Ideas Held Over 30 Days
INVESTING IDEAS (longer-term research product) Looking for Core Short Ideas tomorrow? We've held these for 30 days or more https://t.co/LF9BBqVzXP
Core Inflation Surge Signals Fed Rate Cuts, Bond Yields Rise
First, "core" accelerated. Second, he's making a case for the Fed lowering rates. Third, and most importantly, its y/y headline Inflation that drives long-term Bond Yields and he also knows that if the Hedgeye Inflation Nowcast is correct that we'll...
Monthly Inflation Nowcast Predicts CPI Acceleration 90% Accurate
Our monthly inflation nowcast is a weekly publication which augments our existing quarterly nowcast by offering a closer look at likely trajectory of the front month Headline CPI number. As always, our process is rate-of-change centric and we have thus built...
March Inflation Hits 3.26% YoY, Near Hedgeye Forecast
Hedgeye INFLATION Nowcast Headline inflation measured +3.26% y/y in March, accelerating +85 bps sequentially. The headline number came right the midpoint of our base case (+3.31% y/y) and downside case (+3.20% y/y) estimates https://t.co/aaAC54cfuk
