Chief Investment Strategist (Schwab); macro/markets strategist who often discusses policy, cycles, and implications for currencies/commodities.

GDPNow model (a “nowcast,” not a forecast) from @AtlantaFed down to +3.7% q/q annualized for 4Q2025 https://t.co/NKqC4jdaL0

December retail sales 0% vs. +0.4% est. & +0.6% prior; control group -0.1% vs. +0.2% prior (rev down from +0.4%); ex-autos 0% vs. +0.4% prior (rev down from +0.5%) https://t.co/BbJwHL35ne

January @NFIB Small Business Optimism Index down to 99.3 vs. 99.8 est. & 99.5 prior … net % of respondents expecting a better economy ticked down to 21%; percentage saying it’s a good time to expand rose to 15%; uncertainty...

U.S. large caps dominated inflows last week, followed by global equities and consumer cyclicals ... high yield bonds saw most outflows, but broader fixed income universe was still positive @DataArbor https://t.co/l0soXmQF4S

Share of households expecting to be in a worse financial situation a year from now ticked up in January and has been elevated over past year per @NewYorkFed https://t.co/fGqXylhwzD

Consumers still showing concerns over labor market, with average of nearly 42% expecting higher unemployment in next year per January @NewYorkFed survey https://t.co/ykN7Bdc2C0

Quarter-to-date, Energy sector is outpacing S&P 500 by nearly 19 percentage points … best since first quarter of 2022 and one of best performance spreads (as of now) since 2000 [Past performance is no guarantee of future results] https://t.co/1vvb9Qf0Mh

Per @NewYorkFed survey, as of January, consumers’ median 1y inflation expectations moved down to 3.09% https://t.co/y6Jab93CyT

S&P 500 Equal Weight, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P SmallCap 600 all hit records on Friday, and so did Dow, which also surpassed 50,000 level for first time ever Friday; although Dow is almost 130 years old, it has evolved over decades ensuring...

Flight to value was unmistakable last week in factors; S&P 500 Pure Value +4.0%, while S&P 500 Growth slumped 2.1%; yield-seeking behavior also dominant theme, with S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats and Dow Jones U.S. Select Dividend index +3.5% and +3.3% respectively; Momentum (powerful driver in past several...

Americans expect the stock market (50%) and economy (49%) to improve over the next six months but predict higher inflation (62%) and unemployment (50%) @Gallup https://t.co/n8pQ2GIAHd