Social•Mar 7, 2026
Ukraine’s Shifting Launch Sites Highlight OWA’s Adaptability
Ukraine uses a variety of launch sites and changes between them. It’s much easier to adapt OWA to launching from fields, rotating sites, or even using mobile platforms. Some things in wars are observations vs lessons. Context matters.
By Michael Kofman
Social•Mar 6, 2026
Inside Russian Military Thought: Future War Lessons Revealed
Latest Russia Contingency is out. I join @OAJonsson and @MariaEngqvist to talk about how the Russian military see the future of war, their lessons learned, gaps between theory and practice, and what to make of Russian military thought. @WarOnTheRocks https://t.co/xrgDESr8RN
By Michael Kofman
Social•Mar 5, 2026
Interceptors Primarily Target Missiles, Not OWA Drones
It’s an important point to raise. Most of the interceptors folks are concerned with are likely used on ballistic missiles not OWA drones.
By Michael Kofman
Social•Feb 26, 2026
Drones Redefine Modern Warfare: Emerging Tactics Explored
Good discussion on how the war evolved, the role of drones, what is novel or perhaps new. https://t.co/ZKWx3h4J6D
By Michael Kofman
Social•Feb 25, 2026
KIA-to-Wounded Multiplier Drops as Russians Use Expendable Assault Layer
Good thread here. My own view is the multiplier for KIA to seriously wounded is now unusually low due to the battlefield dynamics and RF fighting with an expendable assault layer within the force. Officially many are counted as MIA...
By Michael Kofman
Social•Feb 24, 2026
Upcoming Analytics May Quantify Russian Military Rebuilding Percentages
Yes I joked on the podcast that this kind of progress bar isn’t exactly the smartest way to represent it, but we’re probably not far from seeing analytical products with this kind of percentage assessment on Russian military reconstitution.
By Michael Kofman
Social•Feb 24, 2026
Debunking War Myths: Offensives, Attrition, CENTCOM Spending
The latest RC is out with @MassDara. We go through some of the current myths, arguments, and assumptions about the war. From assessing offensives to attrition ratios, and my rant on how CENTCOM is about to spend everyone’s munitions. @WarOnTheRocks...
By Michael Kofman
Social•Feb 22, 2026
Frontlines Are Porous: Presence Doesn’t Equal Control
This discussion highlights the challenge of mapping the frontline right now. Presence doesn’t confer control. Positions are interspersed. The front is porous. Infiltration creates grey zones. Counter attacks often retake grey areas that the opponent didn’t control.
By Michael Kofman
Social•Feb 20, 2026
Wounded Soldiers Inflate Russian 2025 Force Numbers
In 2025 Russian forces did not contract, however it is also very unlikely that the overall force grew by 100k. This amount of personnel did not go to force expansion. The likely discrepancy stems from those seriously wounded still being...
By Michael Kofman
Social•Feb 16, 2026
2026 War Outlook: Current Battlefield Dynamics Explained
Happy to share the latest. My views on the current battlefield dynamics and where the war stands in 2026. https://t.co/Wkrnmn3nE1
By Michael Kofman