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Michael Mauboussin

Michael Mauboussin

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Researcher/author, specializes in capital allocation and valuation frameworks

Recent Posts

Historical Base Rates Reveal AI Growth Realities
Social•Feb 10, 2026

Historical Base Rates Reveal AI Growth Realities

We have a new report out today, "Bayes and Base Rates: How History Can Guide Our Assessment of the Future." -We place projected sales growth rates of some artificial intelligence (AI) businesses in the context of history. - We review literature on success rates for big projects (% on budget, on time, deliver expected benefits). -We discuss Michael Porter's work on plans to expand capital expenditures. Link in comment

By Michael Mauboussin