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Mohamed El‑Erian

Mohamed El‑Erian

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Macro economist/strategist; comments on macro funds’ positioning in commodities within broader policy and growth context.

Recent Posts

Supreme Court Blocks Key Tariff Components, Administration Must Seek Alternatives
Social•Feb 20, 2026

Supreme Court Blocks Key Tariff Components, Administration Must Seek Alternatives

Update on US tariffs: The Supreme Court has ruled 6-3 against components of the administration's tariff policy. The ball is now in the administration’s court—specifically the willingness and ability to impose tariffs under alternative legal authorities. #economy #tariffs #markets

By Mohamed El‑Erian
US Growth Decouples From Jobs, Entering Uncharted Territory
Social•Feb 16, 2026

US Growth Decouples From Jobs, Entering Uncharted Territory

Via the Financial Times: My thoughts on why US "jobless growth" may have entered uncharted territory. The decoupling of US growth from employment looks more persistent—and consequential—than the three previous episodes we've seen over the last 40 years: https://www.ft.com/content/298a38bb-4cc1-44f3-bd62-6aff25d58b94 #economy #jobs #employment #unemployment #growth...

By Mohamed El‑Erian
January Jobs Spark Rate‑cut Doubts Despite Solid Hires
Social•Feb 11, 2026

January Jobs Spark Rate‑cut Doubts Despite Solid Hires

Analytically, the January U.S. jobs report supports competing views. The market reaction, however, was clear: traders have sharply dialed back expectations for a June rate cut. The big beat on January job creation, paired with a dip in the unemployment rate...

By Mohamed El‑Erian
Jobs Report Day Shows Record Forecast Divergence
Social•Feb 11, 2026

Jobs Report Day Shows Record Forecast Divergence

Good morning and welcome to Jobs Report Day in the US. The consensus forecasts are for a monthly employment gain of 65,000, an unemployment rate of 4.4%, and a 3.7% annual increase in average hourly earnings. As we head into this release,...

By Mohamed El‑Erian