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Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Creator
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Scholar and author; seminal long-volatility/convexity thinker; options/hedging, tails, and risk.

Bomb Replacement Costs Outpace Target Value Amid Supply Disruption
Social•Apr 3, 2026

Bomb Replacement Costs Outpace Target Value Amid Supply Disruption

Another asymmetry with the West: at some point, with the supply chain disruption, the replacement cost of the bomb starts to exceed that of the target.

By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
One Hit Can Undo Hundreds: Asymmetric Warfare’s Tail Risk
Social•Apr 3, 2026

One Hit Can Undo Hundreds: Asymmetric Warfare’s Tail Risk

Asymmetric warfare is similar to tail risk. You hit 100 targets; they hit just one and you've lost.

By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Higher Energy Products, Debt‑Heavy West Stalls Stagflation Fight
Social•Mar 21, 2026

Higher Energy Products, Debt‑Heavy West Stalls Stagflation Fight

In 1973, the oil embargo lasted 5m & caused a decade of stagflation. The world was not globalized & things were sourced locally. 1) Today the ENERGY CONTENT of products around you is much much higher than 1973. 2) The West has...

By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Saddam Expected Quick Win; War Lasted Eight Years
Social•Mar 14, 2026

Saddam Expected Quick Win; War Lasted Eight Years

For idiots w/either short memory or lack of historical curiosity/sophistication, a reminder that Sadam w/U.S. support invaded S. Iran in 1980 to grab a contested area thinking that it would be a "matter of days" w/an Iran "weakened" by...

By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Israel's Ceasefire Violations Undermine Any Peace Treaty Trust
Social•Mar 10, 2026

Israel's Ceasefire Violations Undermine Any Peace Treaty Trust

Peace Treaty? Israel violated --unilaterally --the Lebanese ceasefire 10,000 times. Everything they have done is in BAD FAITH, particularly now with the U.S. under Calligulino. They just killed 500 Leb civilians while crying abt Iran attacks. How can you TRUST a peace...

By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
State Collapse Boosts Lebanon's Solar Surge, Free EV Driving
Social•Mar 10, 2026

State Collapse Boosts Lebanon's Solar Surge, Free EV Driving

One data point: the collapse of the state in Lebanon favored localism. It now has the highest solar penetration (even >> since 2023, 34% of total energy). Totally unregulated. You can use an electric car and drive for free...

By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Israel's Tech Prowess Masks Strategic Blunders Creating Enemies
Social•Mar 9, 2026

Israel's Tech Prowess Masks Strategic Blunders Creating Enemies

Israelis have proved to be smart at technology & horrible at grasping the consequences of their own actions: They helped create Hezbollah by occupying S. Lebanon They helped create Hamas to counter the 2-state solution I let you assess the mistake they...

By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Western Economies Can't Afford Stagflation Amid Rising Deficits
Social•Mar 9, 2026

Western Economies Can't Afford Stagflation Amid Rising Deficits

Western economies cannot afford stagflation, particularly with current deficits. Before the "war" started. The Calligulino administration is composed of dimwits incapable of grasping the consequences of their actions. https://t.co/dtGLn9cwTw

By Nassim Nicholas Taleb