Social•Feb 21, 2026
Venezuela: Underrated U.S. Geopolitical Triumph
Politics aside, Venezuela has been an enormous geopolitical victory for the US that is probably understated and not well understood by most.
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Small‑cap Outlook Dim Amid Credit Crunch, AI Slowdown
Asking for a friend how small caps are going to perform after everyone piled in long behind the economic reacceleration trade while private credit implodes, the AI capex buffer declines and the Fed remains on hold...
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Trump’s Iran Deal Risks Mirror Obama, Favor Equity Shorts
Trump is going to have some explaining to do if he goes through all of this commotion and expensive military build up only to walk away with a deal not too dissimilar from Obama's. Oil is up over 6% since...
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 18, 2026
2024 Forecast Missed: Iran Tensions Now Escalate
Some of my armchair geopolitical analysis from 2024 where I expected a cooling of tensions and no conflict with Iran. Circumstances are very different today.
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 17, 2026
TLT Seen as Lower High, Still Hating Treasuries
I think I might be the only person in the world who still hates US Treasuries here. $TLT is just another lower high imo until proven wrong.
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 16, 2026
Investors Buy Protection Despite Record VIX Short Positions
Does anyone have a good explanation for why equity skew shows investors are paying up for downside protection but also VIX futures are at near record shorts? Those seem to be contradictory. https://t.co/IWYZ9IHTYl
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 16, 2026
Seeking Causes Behind Hedge Funds' Rising Leverage Beyond
Are there any other explanations for the multi-year vertical ascent in hedge fund gross leverage aside from a reduction in front end interest rates / funding costs? https://t.co/WkIt1xAlmd
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Potential Crisis Looms as Fed‑White House Tensions Rise
How ironic would it be if there were a market crisis event in the next few months while Powell is still at the helm of the Fed, requiring extreme Fed and White House/Treasury cooperation while those relations are as strained...
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Investors Choose Safe Bonds, Accepting Low Real Returns
One way to interpret recent price action in the bond market is that large pools of investment capital have made the determination that a 3.6%-4.1% guaranteed nominal return over the next 5-10 years is preferable to taking on the risk/reward...
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 13, 2026
US Should Avoid Iran Strike During Ramadan, Preserve Allies
This is the last weekend before Ramadan (2/17 - 3/26) and it happens to be a 3 day US holiday. Not that someone with Trump's risk appetite couldn't strike Iran during the holiest month of the Islamic calendar, it certainly...
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Defensive Sectors Exhausted, Market Poised for Broad Correction
While sectors like staples (XLP), energy (XLE), materials (XLB) and industrials (XLI) have all provided a safe haven in recent weeks as large cap tech has sucked wind, most of these are all now reaching exhaustion. This means that from...
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 13, 2026
AI Spending Lifts some Assets, Hurts Major Stock Valuations
The AI capex boom is absolutely stimulative to *certain* assets in the ecosystem and supply chain, but that won't be Mag7 stock prices from here. Revenue growth is slowing, input prices rising and you can connect the dots on what...
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 11, 2026
US Backs Coal Revival as Indonesia Slashes Output
Two major coal developments in the last 24 hours. 1. White House announcing purchases and support to revive the industry 2. Indonesia just ordered the world's largest nickel mine to sharply cut output. They are also looking to cut coal production by...
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 10, 2026
Dollar Weakening as Diverging Policies Boost Global Assets
I keep playing through the potential outcomes over the coming months and I have a very difficult time painting a bull case for the dollar. I expect: 1. Monetary policy divergence widens (more dovish US vs RoW/Japan) 2. Capital flight risk as...
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 10, 2026
Weak Retail, Slowing Wages Hint at Poor NFP
Bad retail sales, falling wage growth and now Hassett and Navarro comments implying bad NFP tomorrow...
By Quinn Thompson