Israel's Unchecked Aggression Fuels Regional Retaliation Risks
If you’re top brass in Iran and Israel has shown no restraint in killing every new person that assumes US negotiating duties, why would you fly to Islamabad only to have your plane tracked and blown up the second you land back in Iran?
Software/Bitcoin Divergence Historically Signals Bearish Crypto
Looking forward to having @Tyler_Neville_ explain to me why today's software/Bitcoin divergence is bullish crypto when every time this has happened in the last year+ it has been bearish. https://t.co/FZ4UbCPPpH
Europe Faces Fuel Shortage After Hormuz Shipment Ends
So tomorrow Europe gets its last shipment of oil from the Strait of Hormuz. Based on that timing, if the Strait were to open tomorrow Europe's next oil shipment would come at the end of May. Reports are circulating that...
Israel's Rapid Bombing Spree Kills over 100 Civilians
What is Israel doing in Lebanon? Dropping 100 bombs in 10 minutes on a city of 2 million people during rush hour? 100+ civilians dead and counting.
Strait Closure Fuels Market Drag; Iran Refuses Leverage Trade‑off
Two points that remain top of mind for me. How do you solve these? 1. Delays that don't open the Strait keeps negative carry on the stock market https://t.co/xqJjSx51rF 2. Iran is not going to open the Strait for a ceasefire and forego...
Inflation‑Adjusted Six‑Month Futures Spread Near Record
"After adjusting for inflation, the six-month futures spread is on course to exceed the previous record set in October 1990, after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and as the United States and its allies massed forces in the Gulf." @JKempEnergy https://t.co/26TVbx2H9d
Brent Slides Despite PMs' “Batten Down” Warnings
Why is front month Brent oil down on the day both Australian and UK prime ministers gave 'batten down the hatches' addresses to their nations?
IWM Puts Cheap—Sell Now for Pre‑weekend Hedge
Near dated $IWM puts are way too cheap given my view of the probability distribution of outcomes over the next week. At a minimum you can probably monetize them tomorrow into pre-weekend hedging if you don't want to own them...
Bitcoin and Commodities Fail to Confirm Equity Momentum
Wondering if $BTC is a tell that aligns with what Andy is saying since it doesn't have the same mechanical flows. Long bonds, oil and ags are also not corroborating this equity move.
STRC Threatens MSTR Capital Structure, Risks Death Spiral
You'd think with $MSTR -80% from highs, bagholders would be more skeptical of every new "digital credit" innovation and its effect on the capital structure, but given the hype over $STRC, that appears to not be the case. While consensus on...
Initiating Long Bond Shorts to Bet on Steepening
I am also beginning to leg into long bond shorts against a portion of this position to play for a steepener.
NVDA Breaks 200‑Day Average at $167
$167 $NVDA now and cut through the 200 DMA like butter. The updates can now conclude.
Monetary Policy Lag Shapes Current Decision-Making Framework
A special shoutout to Fed guy @josephwang. During our chat Joseph gave a beautiful breakdown of the lagged effects of monetary policy and how that feeds into the current decision making framework and then 3 hours later when @fejau_inc interviewed...
Top Bitcoin Miner Forced to Liquidate $1B Loss
The largest Bitcoin miner balance sheet is now a distressed seller after liquidating over $1B of its Bitcoin at ~$72,000 after making purchases 30-40% higher above $90,000 per BTC. This is just the beginning of a major unwind across the...
MARA's Cash‑flow Failure Forces BTC Dump, Exposing Crypto Scams
Death spiral imminent for $MARA. They've never once had a positive cash flowing year in all of their existence, their mining is pillaging funds and now they're finally selling BTC holdings. They sold their $1.1B of BTC for ~65k. Anyone...
Long SOFR Futures Cheap, Expect No Rate Hikes
Now that cuts have been completely priced out through late 2026 into 1H 2027, long SOFR futures are extremely attractively priced. I do not believe hikes will happen as that would twist the knife into a global recession, so therefore...
Trump Repeats Military Charade; Iran Sees Through It
Trump did this exact charade while sending hundreds of military assets to the Middle East while the initial strikes were already approved. He is now running the same playbook while sending additional assets, troops and restockings. Iran is not stupid.
Iran Holds Leverage; Trump Appears Forced Into Ceasefire
Seems highly irrational for Iran to open the Strait during a ceasefire and forego all negotiating leverage. In that case, Trump would just aim for an indefinite ceasefire. And for that to even get off the ground Iran would need...
Trump’s Policies Erode Market Integrity, Enabling Scams
The damage Trump has done to the integrity of financial markets is one of the biggest stains of this entire administration. The deregulation and financial market innovation are positive but they don't need to come at the expense of rampant...
NYC Offers Eight Lox Varieties for Bagel Lovers
Only in NYC do you get to choose from 8 different types of lox for your bagel sandwich https://t.co/KrOIqUXyXE
Retail Hype Shifts, but Latecomers Still Suffer
While retail mania rotated from Silver $SLV to Korea $EWY, the outcome is likely to be the same. Pain for FOMO latecomers. Artwork courtesy of my boy @CavanXy. https://t.co/8ff8rIpWpd
European Gas Prices Soar, Boosting US Nat Gas Asset Value
European gas is now >6x the price of US gas. US nat gas assets becoming more valuable by the day.
Agriculture Offers Untapped Value, Says Jeff Currie
Jeff Currie reads Scouting the Tape. "I think the best sector to try to get value in right now would be agriculture, because it hasn't priced it in." https://t.co/toQMBsZcct
MU Mirrors
Feels like they ran the $NVDA playbook nearly identically on $MU. Run it up into an earnings print everyone knew was going to be a massive beat, trap everyone at the top and dump it. https://t.co/U6oFLLrLx9
Shorting Ignored Even in Perfect Bearish Environment
A recent fintwit observation is that I've never seen such strong sentiment against shorting, particularly equities, despite what seems like the perfect environment for it. I guess it's not surprising that's the consensus view given record low investor cash levels,...
Short EWY Offers Strong Risk‑Reward Setup
The technical setups for shorts here look good too. Strong risk:reward propositions with invalidations nearby. Stop loss at new closing high above $138 on $EWY for example risks $6 to make $20-$40 depending on if it lands at 100 or...
US May Have Sparked War to Deter China’s Taiwan Ambitions
For the geopolitical experts out there - what are the odds that the US was keen to start this war due to intel that China was looking to make a move on Taiwan and that an energy crisis / Strait...
Three Weeks of Strait Closure Sparks Ongoing Chaos
Approaching 3 weeks of Strait closure and no end in sight. Crazy things are happening out there.
US Strikes on Iran Risk 5% Global Oil Loss
Iran produces 4-5% of the world's total oil supply, making it the 3rd largest producer in OPEC. The best case for this conflict just took a leg lower. At best, this ends in the next 1-2 months and the Strait...
Fed Rate Outlook Shifts Dramatically in Three Months
Wild to think just 3 months ago there was an FOMC member projecting a 2-2.25% Fed Funds rate for 2026 (6 cuts from current). How quickly the times change... https://t.co/pLQLDHIdVx
Allies' Oil Shortage Fuels US Strait Standoff
It should be taken with a grain of salt when you hear European and Asian countries saying they won’t help to open the Strait. Majority of these countries are short oil and will face severe crises if they don’t act....
Few Missiles and Drones Can Keep Hormuz Shut Indefinitely
Question for all the maritime insurance experts out there - what will it take for the large P&I clubs to reactivate coverage through the Strait of Hormuz? One of my takeaways from this conflict is how few missiles and drones it...
No TACOs: Trump Lacks Leverage in Energy Crisis
The discussion around TACO is wrong. There are no TACOs here. TACOs don't exist when: 1) It's not a unilateral decision. It's very clearly not up to Trump any more. Things we said in this episode are playing out - he...
Fed Treasury Holdings Surge, Keeping Gold Bullish
The Fed's balance sheet holdings of US Treasuries is now at October 2024 levels and rising. This is why it's difficult to get secularly bearish on gold. Material balance sheet expansion has begun with asset prices at ATHs and no...
AI Compute Shift Forces Miners to Dump Bitcoin
A large underappreciated headwind for Bitcoin is the disaster that which is mining economics. The only way this heals is through a decline in hashrate, which is being spearheaded by the AI compute first movers like $CORZ, $WULF, $CIFR, $IREN,...
Market Walkdown Signals Impending Sprint to Exit
How wild would it be if everyone who called for Black Monday last weekend was just a week early? The market is being consistently walked down and eventually people come to their senses as to what's going on and the walk...
NVDA Short Offers 4:1 Risk‑reward,
With a stop loss at $192, where $NVDA has not been able to break out above, the risk is $10 from here with $40 upside (short) down to $142. Great risk / reward. Oh by the way, $NVDA is 7.7%...
Desensitized by Media, Markets Sleepwalk as Prices Surge
The internet and social media has desensitized humans to a lot of things. I don’t think we grasp just how crazy the stuff that’s going on is and the fact that it’s broadcast for the world to see in real-time. Markets...
Record Put Skew Raises Risk of Downward Spiral
It seems like everyone and their brother is aware of the record levels of put skew and hedging in the market by now. I wonder what magnitude of a tail event is required to break that loose? Is there a level...
Nasdaq up 6%; Shift From Small‑cap to Big‑tech Shorts
Nasdaq outperforming Russel by +6% since this. Would start to exit the small cap underperformance theme and rotate back to the big tech short theme, although both probably struggle together from here. https://t.co/H7964lBBpH
Bitcoin Correlation Charts: Fresh Narratives, No Lasting Impact
It seems like every month there’s a new Bitcoin correlation chart that is always used to try and strike up a new narrative but never holds
High Commodity Prices Spell Trouble for Bonds
Assuming oil and commodity prices stay anywhere remotely close to current, bonds have a big problem. You should read @fejau_inc's piece.
Market Offers Few Safe Havens: Short COST, WMT
Another illustration that displays just how few places there are to hide in this market. Short $COST big. Short $WMT smedium. https://t.co/GNQlkIyRbv
MSTR Lows and Premium Persist; Capitulation
I don't think the lows in $MSTR nor its premium to NAV are in. True capitulation only arrives when the orange dots stop. https://t.co/Xo0lbzEvxE
Broadcom Overtakes Meta in Market Capitalization
Broadcom $AVGO just surpassed Meta $META in market cap. Which would you rather own here @ramahluwalia? https://t.co/ZmgmD0NMMq
Iran War Doubles Oil Moves, Halves Dollar Impact
Compared to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine invasion, this Iran war has produced 2x the move in oil, but only 1/2 the move in DXY. This is exactly what I'm talking about playing out - the dollar is structurally challenged. https://t.co/H1VIqKNbr7
Low US Rigs Signal No Rapid Production Surge
The low level of active US oil and gas rigs indicate a quick ramp in production is unlikely without sustained high oil prices and higher E&P company share prices. https://t.co/GDCcOHcEBE
Higher Oil/Gas Gains, AI Capex Stalls, Credit Strains
Pretty much agree with everything @abcampbell wrote in this. He articulates things very well. 1. Long oil and gas equities who stand to benefit from higher for longer futures curves https://t.co/OpqxY05aWo 2. Economic growth will be tested and small cap longs behind...
Iran Conflict Fuels Endless Oil‑price, Russia‑Ukraine Funding Loop
So the longer the Iran conflict lasts... 1. The longer oil prices are higher 2. The longer the Trump admin allows Russian oil to be sold without sanctions 3. The more financial firepower Russia has to support Iran to prolong the conflict ...rinse and...
Back‑end Oil Futures Boost Equities Despite Physical Short Squeeze
Andy makes a great point here around potential L/S positioning in the oil and gas space. I think chasing the physical commodities up a tree here is dangerous but I still really like oil and nat gas equities for two...