Ray Dalio

Bipartisan Push for 3% GDP Deficit Cap Gains Momentum

I Love and Endorse the Bipartisan 3 % of GDP Budget Deficit Solution In the House of Representatives there is now a bipartisan bill in the works to enact, and a growing agreement that we need, a 3% cap on the budget deficit. The bill was introduced by Representatives Bill Huizenga (R) and Scott Peters (D) to reduce and maintain the federal budget deficit at or below 3% of GDP. While most responsible members of both parties don't agree on much, they agree on this, which is also urged by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and almost all knowledgeable investors, economists, and business leaders beyond them. Treasury Secretary @SecScottBessent has long been a supporter of this path, publicly saying, “I would urge [President Trump] to make public his desire to get the deficit down to 3% by the end of his term.”   In my book How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, I described the mechanics of how the United States will go broke unless it gets the budget deficit down to 3% of GDP, which I describe as my "3% 3-Part Solution." All leaders from both parties I spoke with in private agree. The only impediment is their fear of the political consequences of being in favor of raising taxes and cutting benefits if that is required to reach the 3% GDP budget deficit. Passing this bill would be a step toward overcoming that objection as it would help legislators argue for fiscal responsibility. A stated 3% GDP ceiling goal would become a benchmark for accountability across administrations, providing both a rule and a report card. With it in mind, each year we would naturally ask, “Is the nation moving toward or away from sustainability?” That stated goal and progress toward fiscal responsibility would strengthens markets, bolster investor confidence, and reduce the risks of the U.S. experiencing a sovereign debt/currency crisis.