Copper: We Have a Problem
BHP projects global copper demand to surge roughly 70% to over 50 million tonnes per year by 2050, far outpacing the 22 million tonnes produced in 2024. Cumulatively, the 2025‑2050 demand curve represents about 1 billion tonnes—more copper than humanity has mined in the past 6,000 years. Existing mining capacity and investment pipelines are insufficient to meet this unprecedented scale. The industry has yet to embark on the massive expansion required to close the gap.
AI Capex Doesn't Care About the Strait Today. Mid 2027 Is a Different Story
The blog argues that the ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade and the resulting oil‑price shock are not curbing today’s AI‑related capital expenditures. While the Nasdaq hits record highs and consumer spending tightens, AI compute demand remains strong. However, the author...
The Hormuz Cascade, Tier Two
The Hormuz Cascade, Tier Two, maps how the Hormuz Strait bottleneck will ripple through a dozen supply chains beyond the already‑priced crude, fertilizer, helium, aluminum and auto sectors. The author argues that each downstream industry experiences cost inflation on its...
Six Months, If We're Lucky: The Arithmetic of Reopening the Strait of Hormuz
The Pentagon disclosed to Congress that clearing Iranian mines from the Strait of Hormuz could take up to six months, and that a serious clearance operation is unlikely to start until the conflict with Iran ends. The estimate, revealed in...
The $100 Billion Muni Sector Where Corporate Credit Risk Wears a Tax-Exempt Wrapper
The municipal bond market contains a $100 billion niche of prepaid energy bonds that appear and trade like traditional tax‑exempt munis, but their credit risk is tied to corporate guarantors rather than the issuing municipality. Increasingly, these guarantors are insurance companies...
Middle East Production Offline: Current Status, Restart Timelines, and Well Damage Risk
More crude oil is offline across the Middle East than ever before, with roughly 7 million barrels per day shut in due to conflict‑related damage and precautionary curtailments. The blog analyses restart timelines, highlighting that infrastructure repairs and well damage could...
Gold: Anatomy of a Selloff
Gold has slumped 18.6% from its January 28, 2026 all‑time high of $5,589 to $4,575, marking a 9.6% weekly drop—the steepest since September 2011—and setting up its worst month since October 2008. The decline is not rooted in a fundamental...
The G-7 SPR Bluff: Why 300 to 400 Million Barrels Changes Nothing
The G‑7 is debating a coordinated release of 300‑400 million barrels from IEA strategic petroleum reserves to mitigate the Hormuz supply crisis. Historical draw‑down rates have never exceeded about 2 million barrels per day, meaning the release would cover only a fraction...
Everyone's Watching Fertilizer Stocks. The Real Hormuz Agriculture Trade Is in South America.
The sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a rapid surge in urea prices, prompting sell‑side analysts to recommend buying North American nitrogen producers such as CF Industries, Nutrien and Mosaic. The logic hinged on the fact that roughly...