Better Week in Review
During the holiday‑shortened week, U.S. consumer confidence slipped slightly in May, with two‑thirds of respondents cutting back on spending as prices stay high. The S&P Cotality Case‑Shiller national home‑price index posted a modest 0.7% year‑over‑year gain, underscoring persistent affordability challenges. Oil prices dropped below $90 a barrel as the United States and Iran moved toward a tentative agreement, though they remain about $20 above February levels. Travel volumes at TSA checkpoints were roughly 1% below the 2025 Memorial Day peak despite soaring airfares.
Contradictory Week in Review
The week saw a stark mix of macro signals: consumer sentiment hit record lows while equity markets reached all‑time highs, and gasoline surged to $4.58 per gallon as the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed. The Federal Reserve’s SLOOS revealed construction‑loan...
Highway Spending Boomed. Highway Building Didn't.
Highway and street construction spending rose nominally after the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, but after adjusting for the 73% increase in construction costs, real spending fell 7.5%. Labor wages climbed about 32% and asphalt prices jumped over 40%, pushing...
Reopened Week in Review
Iran’s foreign minister announced the Strait of Hormuz fully open for the remainder of the Lebanon cease‑fire, prompting Brent crude to tumble below $80 a barrel. The drop in oil prices coincides with a 3.6% decline in existing‑home sales in...
Inflated Week in Review
Egg prices fell to their lowest level since early 2022, marking a 12‑month decline, while the gas component of the CPI surged to its biggest monthly gain since 1967. The ISM Services PMI showed a 21st consecutive month of expansion,...
Unpacking the Healthcare Hiring Boom
The healthcare and social assistance sector added roughly 1.7 million jobs since the start of 2024, while all other industries collectively shed about 56,000 positions. Almost half of the new jobs are concentrated in nursing care facilities and services for the...
Construction's Scarce Momentum
Private construction spending has slipped nearly 1% since the start of 2024, with almost all momentum confined to residential improvements and data‑center projects. Excluding those two segments, private non‑residential construction is down roughly 9% over the past two years. Residential...
Construction Wage Escalation Reaccelerates
Construction wage growth, which had slowed throughout 2023 and most of 2024, re‑accelerated in November 2024. By February 2025, production‑employee earnings were up 5.1% year‑over‑year, the strongest gain in over two years. Specialty‑trade contractors led the surge, with a 6.5%...
Grim Week in Review
Industrial production nudged up 0.2% in February, marking a modest 1.4% year‑over‑year gain, a small but positive signal for the NBER recession gauges. Homebuilder confidence ticked higher in March yet remains historically low, with 37% of builders cutting prices. Gasoline...
A Brutal Jobs Report
The latest BLS jobs report showed U.S. employment contracting by 92,000 jobs in February, with a further 69,000‑job downgrade for December and January, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.4%. Over the past 12 months, employers added just 156,000 jobs—far below...