CLARITY, Correlations, and Risk On
The Senate Banking Committee advanced the CLARITY Act with a 15‑9 vote, and market odds now place a 68% chance of passage this year. Bitcoin’s implied volatility sits at 54%—well below its 50‑80% historical range—while realized volatility is just 29%, suggesting a coiled market ready to break out of its 77‑84k range. Correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 has tightened to 0.97 over 30 days, linking crypto performance to the equity rally. If CLARITY clears, tokenization and stablecoin use are expected to accelerate, favoring platforms like BlackRock, Ondo and Coinbase.
Volatility Ramp
The author warns that escalating geopolitical tensions, notably the war in Iran, are pushing oil prices higher and reigniting inflation fears. This feedback loop is driving interest‑rate volatility, with the U.S. 2‑year Treasury yield jumping 30 basis points in two...