ARMS RACE
The Supreme Court’s Callais ruling sharply narrows the Voting Rights Act, allowing partisan redistricting to replace race‑based criteria. The decision sparks an "arms race" as both Republicans and Democrats eye the dismantling of majority‑minority districts in Southern states and beyond. Analyst Brian of Oath projects up to four House seats could flip in 2026 and as many as twelve by 2028, while Senate control remains marginal for Democrats. Economic headwinds, however, are currently muting market reactions to the political shift.
BANK ROLLED
In early April, Polymarket odds rose that the Iran‑backed Houthis would close Bab al‑Mandab and resume Red Sea attacks, but the author argues those odds are inflated. Since the February 2026 U.S.–Israeli airstrikes forced the closure of the Strait of...
NEW: Polymarket Tools for Journalists
Polymarket has launched a suite of free journalism tools designed to help writers incorporate real‑time prediction‑market data into their reporting. The platform’s Draft Analyzer, Market Timeline, Liquidity Checker, and API Explorer let journalists match articles to relevant markets, visualize odds...