Fed Faces Yet Another Negative Supply Shock
Worth repeating that this is another negative supply side shock the Fed has been easing into.
War Saves Fed From Failed Inflation Forecast
Yep, though the Fed will never admit they had a failing inflation forecast. The war bailed them out.
Fed Officials Recognize Easing Bias in Policy Adjustments
"In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments..." The "additional" is the easing bias. Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan and everyone else at the Fed understands this.
State‑directed Capital Hampers Growth by Rewarding Politics over Efficiency
The textbook negative take is that over time state directed capital lowers potential growth by allocating capital on the basis of political connections rather than efficiency. Any one off can look successful, it’s the impact over years that important.
Warsh Didn't Vote Against Fed at Every Crisis Meeting
I have plenty of criticisms of Kevin Warsh, but it's factually untrue that he voted against the Fed at every meeting during the financial crisis.
FOMC Slashes Rates 75 Bps to 3.5%
January 22, 2008. The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 3-1/2 percent...Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice...
Median Voter Demands Lower Inflation Than Fed Tolerates
I have come to believe the median voter has a different loss function than the Fed. The median voter wants inflation at 2% or lower and would tolerate higher unemployment as a tradeoff. The Fed’s revealed preference is at...
Fed Serves as On‑Demand Safety Net in Collapse
There already is one. Love it or hate it, the Fed is the backup in a true collapse on demand.
Trump's Fed Influence Could've Cut Rates by 100bps
If Trump had been able to pack the Fed, rates would have been 100bp lower going into this price shock.
Out‑of‑state Tuition at Low‑selectivity Schools Wastes Money
Heterogeneity and debt are the killers here. If you are paying out of state tuition for a school with an 80% acceptance rate, you are doing it wrong from a financial point of view. It's not about the educational return,...
Data Shows Firms Are Passing Through Price Increases, Defying Fed
Fed: "K-shaped economy, firms can't pass through price increases." Data: "Firms pass through price increases."
Trade Services Inflation Accelerating, Now Double Pre‑pandemic Pace
IDK if this is really much of a silver lining. On trend means that trade services are passing on costs at twice the pre-pandemic pace. That speaks to embedded inflation above target. https://t.co/IwClLNNndO
Trump's Influence Undermines Fed Credibility Amid Rate‑Cut Skepticism
When you see markets pricing in no chance of a cut in April, and less than a cut this entire year, and we are still talking about the possibility of three dissents against holding rates constant today, you realize how...
Fed Overstates Shelter Inflation's Impact on Target
The odd part is that Fed officials have made a big deal about the importance of falling shelter inflation apparently without remembering it has a smaller impact in their actual inflation target.