Travis Lundy

Travis Lundy

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Independent investment research analyst; posts frequent analysis on Japan/Asia equities and index mechanics; Smartkarma contributor

Analyst Predicted TWI's S&P600 Removal—Now Confirmed
SocialMar 31, 2026

Analyst Predicted TWI's S&P600 Removal—Now Confirmed

Teammember Anjana Amasuriya who does S&P500/400/600 predictions (among other things) earlier wrote an update saying he expected TWI to get the boot from SP600 when the Versigent spinoff came. Last night it was announced as such. https://t.co/USzrxfAXkE

By Travis Lundy
Ascender and Maven Letters Prompt Bain to Extend Offer
SocialMar 24, 2026

Ascender and Maven Letters Prompt Bain to Extend Offer

MCJ (6670 JP) - the Letters from Ascender Capital and Maven Capital appear to have had something of an effect. Bain extended the TOB today. They would not extend if they had reached the minimum. I wrote about this on...

By Travis Lundy
Rohm's Drop Highlights Hidden Deal Complexities
SocialMar 10, 2026

Rohm's Drop Highlights Hidden Deal Complexities

Why is Rohm (6963) down hard after popping so much the past two days? I wrote about it over the weekend. 1) It SHOULD be up. The approach reveals the value of the SiC biz. 2) It makes a lot of...

By Travis Lundy
Higher Tender Price Rewards Elliott, Not Governance
SocialMar 3, 2026

Higher Tender Price Rewards Elliott, Not Governance

Toyota Fudosan (6201 JP) “The increase in the tender offer price is something of a win for stewardship as Elliott made a fair bit of money for its clients... But it’s not necessarily a big win for governance.” https://t.co/QEBKuTMAj4

By Travis Lundy
Toyota Raises TOB Price, yet Governance Remains Disappointing
SocialMar 2, 2026

Toyota Raises TOB Price, yet Governance Remains Disappointing

Toyota Asset Preparatory Co announced it had lifted the TOB Price for Toyota Industries to from ¥18,800 to a best and final ¥20,600. Elliott agreed to tender. They made big money, but this is still a really disappointing outcome for...

By Travis Lundy
Monday Marks Final Day of Tender Offer
SocialMar 1, 2026

Monday Marks Final Day of Tender Offer

Re-upping this. Monday is the last day of the current tender offer. Maybe I'll put out an English version, but it's in my Cui Bono piece on Smartkarma last week.

By Travis Lundy
Takeover Price Hits Floor, Still Not a Buy
SocialFeb 25, 2026

Takeover Price Hits Floor, Still Not a Buy

Don't like the Yomeishu Seizo takeover at ¥4,050/share? I wrote 4-Jan-26 this wasn't worth owning. It was Murakami-owned (Yuzawa is Murakami (see 2nd pic)) and he would act in his own interest, and therefore ¥4,021 was a floor price. I...

By Travis Lundy
TICO Faces 99.5% Owned Toyota Tender
SocialFeb 24, 2026

TICO Faces 99.5% Owned Toyota Tender

I've been a bit quiet on here for a while. I'm still busy over at @smartkarma. Over the weekend I published two pieces on TICO (Toyota Industries Co (6201 JP)) which is currently undergoing a Tender Offer by Toyota Asset...

By Travis Lundy
Toyota‑Elliott Dispute over Toyota Industries Deal Lacks Key Financials
SocialFeb 11, 2026

Toyota‑Elliott Dispute over Toyota Industries Deal Lacks Key Financials

This @NikkeiAsia article just out on Toyota Group's "clash" with Elliott on the disposition of Toyota Industries is shameful. There are a bunch of very basic quotes. There is no mention of book value. There is no mention of the...

By Travis Lundy