TEL's Massive Buyback May Waste Cash over High‑ROIC Capex
TEL today announced a ¥150bn buyback. They plan to back their stock at a 2.75% earnings yield (to Mar27) at not quite 12x book. If they can't find a way to invest that cash, you'd think that with a return on capital of 20%, capex would be better. And if more capex is a bad
Nikkei Rebalancing Could Triple Trade Size at Caps
Sep2026 Nikkei 225 is turning out to be a fun rebal. We are down to 3 ADDs, 3 DELETEs, no capping events. But there are two capping situations 3.5% away and another which is about 7.2% away. What is a...
Complex Recap Unnecessary; Simple Share Buyback Suffices
The company has capex needs, expects minimal growth next year. Costs will rise. Raising ¥250bn to buy back shares raises debt/EBITDA by more than one turn. This is easy. Buy back stock at X. Re-issue it years later at X...
GMO Internet's Reverse‑takeover Re‑IPO Flops
Gosh. GMO Internet (4784) "re-IPO" didn't do so well. The stock was a reverse takeover where the parent injected a domain management (profitable) and sub-scale data centre business into the pre-existing internet ad sub GMO Ad Partners, renamed it GMO...
Toshiba's EBITDA Points to ¥2.7 Trillion Valuation
A thought on Rohm (6963) Toshiba has value. - ¥338bn of EBITDA to Mar25, - ¥292bn of EBITDA 9mos to Dec25. - Assume ¥1.3trln of net debt when taken over, FCF of ¥900bn+ through Dec25, ¥400bn+ of Kioxia sales in Q4. Toshiba...
METI Rules Force Companies to Negotiate with PE Activists
I wrote about this a couple of years ago. The METI Corporate Takeover Guidelines effectively oblige companies to engage with PE funds who approach. Activists and PE funds play Bad Cop Good Cop. Link in following tweet.
Analyst Predicted TWI's S&P600 Removal—Now Confirmed
Teammember Anjana Amasuriya who does S&P500/400/600 predictions (among other things) earlier wrote an update saying he expected TWI to get the boot from SP600 when the Versigent spinoff came. Last night it was announced as such. https://t.co/USzrxfAXkE
Ascender and Maven Letters Prompt Bain to Extend Offer
MCJ (6670 JP) - the Letters from Ascender Capital and Maven Capital appear to have had something of an effect. Bain extended the TOB today. They would not extend if they had reached the minimum. I wrote about this on...
Rohm's Drop Highlights Hidden Deal Complexities
Why is Rohm (6963) down hard after popping so much the past two days? I wrote about it over the weekend. 1) It SHOULD be up. The approach reveals the value of the SiC biz. 2) It makes a lot of...
Higher Tender Price Rewards Elliott, Not Governance
Toyota Fudosan (6201 JP) “The increase in the tender offer price is something of a win for stewardship as Elliott made a fair bit of money for its clients... But it’s not necessarily a big win for governance.” https://t.co/QEBKuTMAj4
Toyota Raises TOB Price, yet Governance Remains Disappointing
Toyota Asset Preparatory Co announced it had lifted the TOB Price for Toyota Industries to from ¥18,800 to a best and final ¥20,600. Elliott agreed to tender. They made big money, but this is still a really disappointing outcome for...
Monday Marks Final Day of Tender Offer
Re-upping this. Monday is the last day of the current tender offer. Maybe I'll put out an English version, but it's in my Cui Bono piece on Smartkarma last week.
Takeover Price Hits Floor, Still Not a Buy
Don't like the Yomeishu Seizo takeover at ¥4,050/share? I wrote 4-Jan-26 this wasn't worth owning. It was Murakami-owned (Yuzawa is Murakami (see 2nd pic)) and he would act in his own interest, and therefore ¥4,021 was a floor price. I...
TICO Faces 99.5% Owned Toyota Tender
I've been a bit quiet on here for a while. I'm still busy over at @smartkarma. Over the weekend I published two pieces on TICO (Toyota Industries Co (6201 JP)) which is currently undergoing a Tender Offer by Toyota Asset...
Toyota‑Elliott Dispute over Toyota Industries Deal Lacks Key Financials
This @NikkeiAsia article just out on Toyota Group's "clash" with Elliott on the disposition of Toyota Industries is shameful. There are a bunch of very basic quotes. There is no mention of book value. There is no mention of the...