Valuedontlie

Valuedontlie

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Small‑cap value investor; runs a newsletter covering underfollowed value situations and catalysts.

AMPY Emerges Cash‑rich, Focused on Two Assets at 0.4x Book
SocialMay 27, 2026

AMPY Emerges Cash‑rich, Focused on Two Assets at 0.4x Book

Anyone following $AMPY? To summarize the last 12 months at this small-cap E&P... 1) Terminated merger 2) CEO replaced 3) Sold assets 4) Now have a net cash balance sheet, 5) Doubling down on remaining 2 assets (capex) 6) Trades at ~0.4x book value https://t.co/dkYRTB8sd7

By Valuedontlie
GAAP Earnings Rare Gems in Adjusted-Number Market
SocialMay 21, 2026

GAAP Earnings Rare Gems in Adjusted-Number Market

The level of shock and awe at using adjusted numbers is surprising. I’m not endorsing adjusted earnings as a reliable valuation approach, but the entire market is priced this way. It’s the norm not the exception. Finding a good +...

By Valuedontlie
Baird Doubles Price Target From $12 to $30
SocialMay 14, 2026

Baird Doubles Price Target From $12 to $30

Crazy price target adjustment... from $12 to $30 anyone have access to this Baird report? https://t.co/ETwRItgDfx

By Valuedontlie
CVEO Uses 75% FCF for Buybacks, Cuts Shares 28%
SocialMay 12, 2026

CVEO Uses 75% FCF for Buybacks, Cuts Shares 28%

$CVEO Capital allocation policy = spend 75% of FCF on buybacks annually Shares outstanding down ~28% over past 3 years https://t.co/4sJtQ57Wij

By Valuedontlie
STRZ Targets Early 20% EBITDA, Reduced Cash Spend
SocialMay 11, 2026

STRZ Targets Early 20% EBITDA, Reduced Cash Spend

$STRZ Starting to see cash content spending coming down (big part of original thesis)... voluntarily terminated pay 2 window with universal, originals launching, etc. Expect to hit 20% EBITDA margin target a year early (2027 vs. 2028) and leverage target by yearend...

By Valuedontlie
VDL April: Asset Play Guide and Key Stock Updates
SocialMay 6, 2026

VDL April: Asset Play Guide and Key Stock Updates

April write-ups on VDL: 1) Guide to asset plays (SOTP, net-nets, liquidations, stub shares, etc.) 2) Nomad Foods $NOMD — management change 3) Gen Digital $GEN — beaten down 4) Middleby $MIDD — spin-off https://t.co/Qxe5wECpiD

By Valuedontlie
Working Capital Defined: Sparking Debate on Its Nuances
SocialApr 29, 2026

Working Capital Defined: Sparking Debate on Its Nuances

Good definition of working capital. Will surely spark debate on subtle nuances of what WC represents

By Valuedontlie
Bet on Likely Buyers, Not Just ETA/SMB Hype
SocialApr 28, 2026

Bet on Likely Buyers, Not Just ETA/SMB Hype

Most people interested in ETA/SMB would be better off dropping a few bets on the searchers/buyers most likely to get it done. I’d love to back 5-10 of “myself” from 10yrs ago

By Valuedontlie
VSNT Eyeing STRZ Despite Divergent Growth Forecasts
SocialApr 19, 2026

VSNT Eyeing STRZ Despite Divergent Growth Forecasts

$STRZ Stock ripping lately... CEO incentive comp is old news (Nov 2025) Hmm... VSNT likely acquirer here... they want non-linear revenue streams and STRZ gets 70% of revenue from digital sell-side penciling ~3% EBITDA growth '26-28 for STRZ vs. 12% decline at VSNT https://t.co/kOTAwW2Pc3

By Valuedontlie
CEO Leverages Claude AI to Explain Business Case, Margin Loan
SocialApr 18, 2026

CEO Leverages Claude AI to Explain Business Case, Margin Loan

$KPG.AX CEO uses Claude to lay out the case for the business and addresses personal margin loan situation Good stuff

By Valuedontlie
Considering Selling $VSNT as It
SocialApr 14, 2026

Considering Selling $VSNT as It

Now that it's becoming socially acceptable to own $VSNT, I'll probably start selling my position Here's the Einhorn note on it https://t.co/aCz9NT3GB6

By Valuedontlie
Investing Metrics Often Mislead: FCF & EV Errors
SocialApr 13, 2026

Investing Metrics Often Mislead: FCF & EV Errors

Second this... there's also periodic misinformation in these investing tools, especially with FCF and enterprise value calculations... leases, IFRS interest cash flows, capex/intangibles, other stuff

By Valuedontlie
LEG Sale Undervalued
SocialApr 13, 2026

LEG Sale Undervalued

Super disappointed in $LEG sale outcome... shares are worth more than the $11-12 outcome... plus, LEG is inning #1 of capital allocation inflection https://t.co/VflyivPAAE

By Valuedontlie
GEN Stands Out: 6.5x P/E, 12.5% EPS Growth
SocialApr 11, 2026

GEN Stands Out: 6.5x P/E, 12.5% EPS Growth

Cheapest software names based on forward P/E (market cap >$2bn) I'm a fan of $GEN on this list... 6.5x earnings with 12.5% estimated EPS growth next 3 years https://t.co/TPgzemEkVy

By Valuedontlie