What’s Going on With Shipping? (Sal Mercogliano)

Ships Stranded at Hormuz: 1 March 2026 Update | Is the Strait Open or Closed?

The March 1 2026 video assesses whether the Strait of Hormuz is open or closed, focusing on real‑time shipping activity and oil flow amid escalating U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran. Host Sal Maglaniano uses MarineTraffic data to show a dramatic drop in green cargo dots and red tanker dots, with dozens of vessels anchored at traditional waiting areas off Iran, Oman and the UAE, indicating that carriers are pausing transit pending security clarity. Key insights include a surge in war‑risk insurance demands; standard P&I coverage no longer suffices, and insurers now require costly Additional Protection (AP) policies before vessels can risk the strait. This insurance hurdle, combined with the threat of missiles, drones, and naval engagements—highlighted by Operation Epic Fury, the sinking of an Iranian corvette, and disputed missile strikes on the USS Abraham Lincoln—has forced many tankers and container ships to remain idle. Lloyd’s List reports over 150 oil and gas tankers and roughly 170 container vessels (about 450,000 TEUs) stuck in the Gulf, while major lines such as MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag‑Lloyd have ordered ships to seek shelter. Sal cites specific incidents to illustrate the volatility: the fire aboard the sanctioned tanker Skylight near Oman, port suspensions in Dubai, Oman and Bahrain after missile interceptions, and heightened VHF and AIS advisories from the UK Maritime Trade Operations. He also notes spoofing of AIS signals, underscoring the operational challenges for mariners navigating a densely militarized environment. The implications are significant: roughly 20% of global oil passes through Hormuz, and any prolonged constraint threatens supply to East Asian economies—China, Japan, South Korea—and could trigger higher freight rates, rerouting via the Red Sea, and broader market volatility. Shipping firms must balance insurance costs against the risk of loss, while policymakers watch a chokepoint whose status can influence worldwide energy security.