Doubts About Trump Strain Southeast Asia’s US-China Balancing Act

Why It Matters

The erosion of U.S. credibility reshapes the geopolitical balance, forcing Southeast Asian nations to recalibrate their diplomatic and economic strategies amid intensifying great‑power competition.

Key Takeaways

• US confidence in Southeast Asia drops to 14.8% for free trade.
• 52% of respondents now prefer China over US, first since 2024.
• Climate change tops regional concerns at 60%, surpassing security issues.
• ASEAN seen as slow; 34.7% cite ineffectiveness.
• China remains most influential economic power at 55.9% in region.

Pulse Analysis

The latest State of Southeast Asia poll underscores a pivotal shift in the region’s perception of U.S. leadership, driven largely by President Trump’s unpredictable trade policies and a transactional diplomatic style. With confidence in Washington’s ability to champion free trade falling to under 15%, policymakers and investors are reassessing risk exposure, especially as China’s strategic relevance now eclipses that of the United States for a majority of respondents. This realignment reflects broader anxieties about the reliability of the rules‑based order that the U.S. traditionally championed.

Beyond great‑power rivalry, the survey highlights climate change as the foremost challenge, cited by 60% of participants—a rise from the previous year. Extreme weather events threaten livelihoods, infrastructure, and economic growth, compelling governments to prioritize resilience and sustainable development. Simultaneously, ASEAN’s internal constraints—cited by more than a third of respondents as slow and ineffective—limit the bloc’s capacity to coordinate a unified response, amplifying the need for deeper integration and stronger institutional mechanisms.

For businesses and investors, the evolving dynamics signal both risk and opportunity. Companies must navigate a landscape where China’s economic clout dominates, yet its influence is tempered by regional concerns over sovereignty and rule‑of‑law violations. Meanwhile, the United States, despite waning soft power, remains a critical security partner, offering a counterbalance to Beijing’s expansion. Strategic engagement with ASEAN, focused on climate adaptation, trade facilitation, and institutional reform, will be essential for firms seeking stability and growth in a region caught between two competing superpowers.