Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India’s rupee projected near 99 as fiscal deficit widens to 5%
BofA Securities analyst Rahul Bajoria expects the rupee to trade around ₹98‑99 within a year. He also sees the FY27 fiscal deficit expanding to 5% of GDP, above the government’s 4.3% target, driven by higher fertilizer subsidies, a fuel excise‑duty cut and weaker tax collections adding roughly 150 basis points.
Also developing:
- EM debt shows widening dispersion as policy flexibility and conflict proximity diverge
- Taiwan’s AI‑driven semiconductor rally lifts TSMC 46% and pushes market to $4.95 trillion valuation
- Indonesia creates state‑owned Danantara to channel raw‑material exports, targeting up to $150 billion annual revenue
Fitch's BMI Cuts Philippines Growth Forecast to 3.9% as Oil Shock Hits Emerging Markets
Fitch Solutions' BMI unit lowered its 2024 GDP growth forecast for the Philippines to 3.9%, a 1.3‑point downgrade, and lifted its 2026 inflation projection to 6.1% as the Middle East conflict drives oil prices higher. The revisions underscore the country's exposure as one of the hardest‑hit emerging economies.
Quad Ministers Commit $20 B Critical Minerals Framework and Fiji Port Project at Delhi Summit
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar announced a $20 billion Critical Minerals Initiative, a joint port in Fiji and new energy and maritime surveillance programs....
Taiwan’s Boom a Leveraged Bet on AI Irrational Exuberance
Taiwan’s stock market vaulted into the world’s top five, driven by an AI‑fuelled semiconductor surge that lifted TSMC 46% this year and pushed the benchmark to a $4.95 trillion valuation. The chipmaker alone represents about 42% of the index, anchoring the...
Bloomberg News Now: Iran Tensions Rise as Cease Fire Talks Advance
Bloomberg News Now highlighted escalating Iran‑U.S. tensions as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei warned that American bases in the Middle East will no longer be safe, even as diplomatic channels inch toward an interim cease‑fire extension. U.S. and Iranian officials say the...
Access Middle East - 26-May-26
Access Middle East highlighted a volatile mix of geopolitics and markets on May 26. U.S. defensive strikes against Iranian mine‑laying vessels pushed Brent crude toward $100 a barrel, while President Trump used Truth Social to urge Gulf nations to...
Could Russia Save the Global Economy? | Business Beyond
The video examines a leaked 28‑point US‑Russia peace blueprint that envisions lifting sanctions on Moscow and forging a long‑term economic cooperation covering energy, AI, rare‑earths and other sectors. Proponents tout a $12 trillion upside, arguing that re‑integrating Russia could be a...
Iran Deal Hopes Fade as US Strikes Temper Risk Appetite; Oil Rebounds, Stocks Mixed
The Business Times market focus highlighted that optimism for a near‑term US‑Iran peace deal evaporated after US forces carried out defensive strikes in southern Iran, curbing risk appetite while pushing oil higher. Brent crude surged more than 2% in Asian trade,...
Why China Keeps Selling U.S. Treasuries | China Decode
The episode of China Decode examined the converging strategic partnership between Russia and China, focusing on the stalled Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, and China’s recent sell‑off of U.S. Treasury securities against the backdrop of the Middle‑East energy crisis. Hosts highlighted...
Beating Concentration Risks with a Look at Emerging Markets
The video examines the growing concentration risk in emerging‑market equities, highlighting how Taiwan and South Korea now dominate the sector’s performance. While global markets rally on optimism surrounding a potential US‑Iran cease‑fire, the emerging‑market trade has become heavily weighted toward...
China Floods Global Memory Market as CXMT Boosts DRAM and NAND Output
Chinese memory firms, led by ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), have begun mass‑producing DDR5 DRAM and NAND chips, prompting brands such as Corsair to source from China. A 1,688% profit surge and an upcoming IPO underscore the strategic shift that could...
India's AI Market Poised to Top $500 Billion, Fueling Office Real Estate Surge
Colliers' latest report forecasts India's artificial‑intelligence market will expand from roughly $9 bn today to over $500 bn in the coming decades. The surge is expected to drive a wave of office‑space demand, retrofitting opportunities and cement India’s role as a talent...
Kuka–Midea: One Decade of a Deal that Changed EU Economic Security
A decade after Midea’s €4.5 billion (≈$4.9 billion) acquisition of German robot maker Kuka, the deal is credited with launching the EU’s modern economic‑security agenda. The transaction exposed gaps in Germany’s foreign‑direct‑investment (FDI) screening, prompting a cascade of national reforms that later...
Africa's Place in a Shifting World Order
Africa is shedding its risk‑only label as great‑power rivalry turns the continent into a seller’s market. China has poured roughly $500 bn into African infrastructure and mining, while the United States backs the Lobito and Liberty corridors and the EU earmarks...
Africa's Financial Sovereignty Begins with Lowering the Cost of Capital
African governments and firms face borrowing costs 4%‑15% above U.S. Treasury rates, a premium that acts as a hidden tax on development. At the Africa Forward Summit 2026 in Nairobi, leaders—including 18 heads of state, President Macron and global investors—called...
Bank of Ghana Holds Rate at 14% and Raises Cash Reserve Ratio to 20% to Boost Economic Resilience
The Bank of Ghana’s Monetary Policy Committee kept the policy rate unchanged at 14% and announced a uniform 20% cash reserve ratio for banks effective June 4. The move reflects a strategic pivot toward economic resilience as external shocks and...
Liquidity, Not SIPs, Drives Foreign Investment Inflows
I disagree with the notion that SIPs and domestic equity investors are what creates a negative in that foreign investors will leave. If all they were looking for is liquidity, then it's fine, they have it now, and they're leaving;...
Marco Rubio’s India Tour Aims to Revive $500B Trade Deal and Boost Quad Unity
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in India on May 23 for a four‑day visit that includes talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar. The mission targets a stalled $500 billion trade agreement and aims to reinforce the...
IMF Flags Governance, Regulation and Openness Gaps in Nigeria and Sub‑Saharan Africa
The International Monetary Fund’s latest regional outlook warns that Nigeria and much of Sub‑Saharan Africa lag behind other developing regions in governance, business regulation and market openness. The IMF estimates that well‑designed reforms could boost output by about 20% over...
Foreign Portfolio Investors Dump Record $25 B From Indian Stocks
Foreign portfolio investors have pulled roughly Rs 2.1 lakh crore ($25 bn) from Indian equities between January and early May 2026, the biggest year‑to‑date outflow since foreign investment was allowed in 1993. The sell‑off comes as a strong US dollar, high Treasury yields and...
Modi Wants Indians to Press Pause on Gold. But the $5.2 Trillion Obsession Runs Deep
Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Indians to pause gold purchases and the government responded by raising import duties from 6% to 15%, adding roughly ₹4,500 per 10 g ($54) to retail prices. India’s households hold about 34,600 tonnes of gold, valued at...
EU-Mexico Modernized Trade Deal Adds $5 B Investment, Cuts Tariffs, Shifts Supply Chains
The European Union and Mexico sealed a modernized free‑trade agreement that includes a $5 billion investment package, eliminates most tariffs on agricultural goods and opens digital‑trade and procurement markets. The deal, hailed as a geopolitical statement, is set to reshape supply‑chain...