Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
China accelerates $50 bn U.S. Treasury sell‑off amid geopolitical tensions
China has rushed to liquidate its U.S. Treasury bill holdings, cutting the portfolio from $682.6 bn in November 2025 to $633.4 bn—a $50 bn drop in four months and the lowest level since 2008. The move follows larger drawdowns during the 2019 trade war and the 2022 sanctions wave, and coincides with Beijing ordering commercial banks to unwind $70‑$200 bn of T‑bills.
The United States condemned the 20‑year sentence handed to Hong Kong activist Jimmy Lai but its traditional punitive toolkit—sanctions and revoking Hong Kong’s special trade status—has done little to restore the city’s autonomy. Lawmakers are now proposing legislation that could strip diplomatic privileges from Hong Kong’s Economic and Trade Offices, a move critics argue would undermine valuable trade ties. The article urges Washington to shift toward people‑focused strategies, such as extending residency waivers, reviving Fulbright scholarships, and expanding civil‑society exchanges. Leveraging the influence of the 1,300 U.S. firms operating in Hong Kong could also create a quieter, business‑driven pressure point.
The United States continues to dominate global growth, driven by an AI-fueled expansion, yet its flagship currency is unusually weak. Markets are now pricing U.S. policy uncertainty on par with economies that lack a reserve currency. Conflicting fiscal and monetary...
The African Union General Assembly endorsed AUDA‑NEPAD’s priority agenda for the acceleration phase of the Second Ten‑Year Implementation Plan of Agenda 2063, reaffirming its mandate across human capital, agriculture, climate resilience, health, industrialisation and infrastructure. It appointed Angola President João Manuel...
In this episode, Dr. Eric Paglia talks with Dr. Andreas Raspotnik, a senior researcher at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, about the European Union’s rising geopolitical role in the Arctic. They examine how the EU’s response to the recent Greenland crisis...
South Africa's overall unemployment rate slipped to 31.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from 31.9% in the prior quarter and marking a second consecutive decline after a peak of 33.2% a year earlier. Employment rose by 44,000, reaching...
India, the world’s second‑largest crude‑steel producer, is pivoting toward the Middle East and Asian markets to cushion the impact of the European Union’s new carbon border adjustment tax. Roughly two‑thirds of its steel exports currently flow to Europe, where the...
Fund managers are at a five‑year high of bullishness, yet a record share warn that corporate America is overspending on capital expenditures amid uncertain returns. In Bank of America’s February survey of 162 managers, cash balances rose in February, signaling...
The episode examines Mexico’s stalled proposal to shorten the legal workweek from 48 to 40 hours and add an extra day off, a reform that seems at odds with the Morena‑led coalition’s track record of swift, sweeping legislation. Despite holding...
Fascinating study from Bloomberg: S&P Equal Weight outperformance was extremely rare historically: 1999-2002 Dotcom 2009 Post GFC 2020-2021 Covid “Those cases accompanied major shifts in the market.” “Equal-weight S&P managed to maintain some outperformance 250 days later.” “The big question: whether this is the start of an...
Thai banks’ non‑performing loan ratio slipped to 2.84% at December, down from 2.94% in September. Bank lending fell 1.1% in Q4 2025, marking the sixth straight quarter of contraction, driven by tighter credit to SMEs and consumers. Household debt remains...
U.S. companies are expanding nearshore hiring beyond software engineering to include sales, customer success, and support teams in Latin America. The customer‑success market is projected to reach $16.5 billion by 2033, while bilingual support job postings have risen 50% year‑over‑year. Talent...
India’s National Green Tribunal has approved the Rs 90,000‑crore Great Nicobar mega‑infrastructure project, clearing the way for a new International Container Transshipment Port at Galethea Bay. The first phase, slated for 2028, will handle over 4 million TEUs annually, with full capacity...
Kenyan e‑mobility startup Arc Ride has secured a $5 million equity commitment from the International Finance Corporation to fuel its Series A round and regional rollout. The funding will accelerate the deployment of battery‑swapping stations across East Africa, complementing earlier debt deals...
Indonesia has unveiled a US$762 million, 12.83 trillion‑rupiah stimulus aimed at bolstering Ramadan consumption. The package includes transport fare discounts of up to 30%, full‑fare ferry rides, and food parcels for low‑income families. Officials hope the measures will sustain mobility and purchasing...
China’s pharmaceutical sector is rapidly expanding, now generating its own GLP‑1 drugs alongside imported treatments. Novo Nordisk reported a 5% decline in Ozempic sales in China last year, the first dip since its 2021 launch, while sales grew elsewhere. The...
Asia‑Pacific private credit is entering a rapid expansion phase, with issuance projected to rise from $59 billion in 2024 to $92 billion by 2027. Industry leaders such as SC Lowy and Moody’s cite digitalization, the energy transition, and infrastructure needs as primary catalysts,...
India's currency in circulation reached a record Rs 40 lakh crore in January 2026, up 11.1% year‑on‑year, while the cash‑to‑GDP ratio slipped to about 11.2%, down from a pandemic peak of 14.4%. Over the past decade, cash holdings have risen from Rs 11.8 lakh crore in...
I just finished Quinn Slobodian's fascinating book on the parallel evolution of globalization and neoliberalism, with the former (according to the latter) requiring specific rules and institutions to "protect" global capitalism from democratic political pressures. While he focuses very heavily...
NEW POST: - RISKS. - Core signals to watch. - Volatility and Contagion. “The next few days will be absolutely critical to monitor…” 🔗Link in profile. https://t.co/qgBEZWrB8Z
The National Bank of Ethiopia announced sweeping foreign‑exchange reforms, letting exporters retain 100% of their foreign‑currency earnings in designated accounts and permitting banks to issue payment cards linked to those accounts. The minimum $100 requirement for foreign‑exchange savings accounts has...
OIL MARKET: The 2nd round of US-Iran talks has concluded, and Iranian media says there would be a 3rd round of negotiations in the “near future” after both sides consult with their respective governments.
The oil ministers of Iran and Russia met today. Contrary to popular belief, Moscow and Tehran are now bitter rivals in the oil market as the size of the black market for crude shrinks. Both compete to supply China. (My earlier @Opinion...
President Trump issued an executive order establishing an “America First” arms export strategy that rewards allies who invest in self‑defense, occupy critical geography, or contribute to U.S. economic security. The rubric pushes the Philippines, Singapore and Cambodia toward priority status...
I *love* this ternary chart showing developing economies increasingly go directly for clean electrons (solar plus some wind), bypassing the fossil economy that the US and EU went through. I expect Africa will take an even more direct route than India. https://t.co/KjsZV3S6P1...
A short op on what’s going on under the hood in China’s $20 trn economic paradox with the 15th FYP due next month. No five-year plan will solve the paradox of China’s economy https://t.co/uCtAPYrW7A
Vietnam’s finance ministry reported a record $106.6 bn state budget revenue in 2025, surpassing forecasts by 35.5 %. The ministry issued 144 circulars—about a quarter of all national normative documents—while rolling out 28 laws and 86 decrees to support digital transformation, new...
Deloitte’s 2026 Global Automotive Consumer Study reveals that 95% of Indian car buyers are ready to pay extra for software‑defined vehicle (SDV) capabilities such as safety, security and health monitoring. The same respondents view SDVs as helpful (81%) and are...
China is accelerating the rollout of its interest‑bearing digital yuan (e‑CNY) across Southeast Asia, launching cross‑border pilots such as the China‑Laos settlement system and expanding access through commercial banks. The People’s Bank of China’s new management framework aims to turn...
Ukrainian and Russian delegations met in Geneva for U.S.-brokered talks, but expectations are low that they will produce a breakthrough before the war's fourth anniversary. Both sides remain entrenched on territorial demands, with Russia insisting on broader land claims and...
Europe faces heightened risk of a broader NATO‑Russia confrontation as the Ukraine war drags on. Over the past four years, NATO allies have poured hundreds of billions of dollars in military, economic, and humanitarian aid into Ukraine, while European nations...
Four years after Russia’s full‑scale invasion, the Ukraine war has defied early forecasts by persisting far longer and costing both sides more than anticipated. Kyiv’s ability to adapt, innovate militarily, and marshal extensive U.S., European, and global support has been...
In this episode the host curates a monthly roundup of quirky fertility news, focusing on pronatalist policies in Chile and Thailand. They critique Chile’s new "Plan Renace"—a baby‑bonus and tax‑break scheme championed by politician Kast—arguing that such incentives target later...
🇰🇭#Cambodia's payment infrastructure: Outsourced to overseas vendors, platforms and foreign-owned banks. How to maintain the country's sovereignity?
Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl pole‑dance performance turned a global stage into a protest against Puerto Rico’s chronic power outages. The artist highlighted how the island’s unreliable grid is a direct legacy of U.S. colonial energy policies that deny residents federal...
Beijing really just outsourced its reserves to its state banks, and shifted out of US custodians High return on investment tho. Tons of folks swallow the fall in reported Treasury holdings hook, line and sinker https://t.co/MKw3EJlSuR
Walmart‑owned Sam’s Club is expanding in China by deepening localisation, offering China‑specific products such as ginseng, copper‑gourd ornaments, and right‑sized private‑label packs. The chain opened ten new stores in 2025, bringing its footprint to 63 locations and shifting focus to...
The Philippine Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) will adopt a fast‑track procurement system modeled on the Board of Investments' "green lane" to lure reputable builders back after recent flood‑control contract scandals. Secretary Vince Dizon said the new process...
1/2 SCMP: "Long viewed by Chinese employees as a barometer of corporate prospects, industry momentum and even the broader economy, the year-end bonus packages for 2025 have become smaller, rarer and far more unevenly distributed, amid slowing... https://t.co/MFbnMtmZdY
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) is weighing a restart of official development assistance (ODA) loans to Pakistan after a ten‑year hiatus. The move reflects improving macro‑economic indicators, including steadier growth and reduced fiscal stress. JICA’s decision will be coordinated with...
Vietnam’s startup funding has slowed as investors cite cross‑border frictions, notably congested airports and strict capital controls. The newly opened Long Thanh International Airport is intended to ease Ho Chi Minh City’s traffic but has yet to deliver full relief....
BHP reported that copper now accounts for the majority of its earnings for the first time, propelling a sharp rise in six‑month profit and revenue. The miner’s shift away from iron ore, which is suffering from weaker Chinese demand, has...
Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko” Moreno Domagoso led the Chinese New Year countdown in Binondo, welcoming Chinese Ambassador Jing Quan and highlighting deepening Philippines‑China ties. He announced that new flights to Cebu will boost tourism, jobs, and business, and reported a...
The annualized measures of Chinese intervention over the last 3ms that capture backdoor intervention by the state banks are at all time highs in dollar terms -- over $200b a quarter/ over $800b annualized https://t.co/7vlh3tf4CX
Dangote Group has inked a $400 million deal with China’s XCMG to acquire heavy‑construction equipment that will fast‑track the expansion of its petroleum refinery from 650,000 to 1.4 million barrels per day. The upgrade will also boost petrochemical outputs, including polypropylene, urea...
Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics rebased its Consumer Price Index to a 2024 base year, pulling headline inflation down from 24.48% in January 2025 to 15.15% by December 2025. Critics argue the technical decline masks persistent real inflation, with food prices still...
While everyone continues to be bearish on Thailand, the index quietly bottomed in mid-2025. Marc Faber called it, almost perfectly. https://t.co/TfCZRnhSG7
Nigeria’s economy is structured to reward navigating bureaucratic friction rather than boosting productivity, efficiency, or innovation. World Bank data shows firms spend over 40% more time on regulations than the regional average, creating a thriving informal ecosystem of brokers, fixers...
Nigeria’s Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) summoned former Kaduna governor Nasiru El‑Rufai for questioning over alleged mismanagement of public funds during his 2015‑2023 tenure. While El‑Rufai complied, supporters stormed the EFCC headquarters in Abuja, prompting operatives to deploy tear gas...
Uganda’s eight lake ports, managed by state‑owned Uganda Railways Corporation, are crippled by illegal land encroachments, military occupations, and climate‑related water level shifts. Key facilities such as Port Bell and Lambu Port face stalled redevelopment despite an African Development Bank...
Turkey and Saudi Arabia concluded a series of defence‑industrial accords in February 2026, covering a fifth‑generation fighter, a utility helicopter, and unmanned naval platforms. The agreements were sealed during President Erdoğan’s Riyadh visit and include a joint KAAN fighter investment...
