Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
BofA analyst sees rupee slipping to ₹98‑99 and fiscal deficit widening to 5% in FY27
BofA Securities analyst Rahul Bajoria projects the Indian rupee will fall to around ₹98‑99 within the next year. He also expects the FY27 fiscal deficit to expand to 5% of GDP, above the government's 4.3% target, driven by higher fertilizer subsidies, an excise‑duty cut on fuel and softer tax collections, adding roughly 150 basis points to the shortfall.
Uzbekistan Secures $6.08 Billion Deal to Build 160,000‑Tonne SAF Hub
Uzbekistan and Allied Biofuels FE LLC signed a $6.08 billion agreement in Perth to construct a large‑scale sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) complex in the Khorezm region. The facility will produce more than 160,000 tonnes of SAF a year, along with e‑SAF and green diesel, using renewable power, green hydrogen and carbon capture. The deal positions the country as a regional SAF hub and signals deepening cross‑border collaboration on aviation decarbonization.
Etihad Adds Five China Routes, 28 Weekly Flights to Boost UAE‑China Corridor
Etihad Airways announced the launch of five new mainland China routes and the addition of 28 weekly flights, taking its China network to 35 weekly services across six cities. The expansion, powered by Boeing 787‑9 Dreamliners, is tied to joint...
Iranian Strikes Knock Out 17% of Qatar LNG Capacity, Threatening Global Supply
Iran’s recent missile attacks damaged two of QatarEnergy’s LNG trains and a GTL plant, eliminating about 17% of the nation’s liquefied natural gas capacity. The outage removes 12.8 million tonnes per year of LNG for three to five years and forces...
China's Q1 2026 Social Financing Hits $2.1 T, Bonds Surge as Bank Loans Slip
China's People’s Bank released Q1 2026 data showing social financing grew 14.83 trillion yuan ($2.1 trillion), while the share of bank loans fell to 60% of total growth. Corporate bond financing rose to 1.05 trillion yuan ($147 billion) and yields on AAA‑rated five‑year bonds...
JEMA: The Optimized Benchmark Emerging Market ETF
Popular broad‑market EM ETFs such as iShares IEMG and Vanguard VWO often lack true diversification, exposing investors to hidden concentration risks. A new quantitative framework using 2‑D Z‑Score mapping evaluates growth versus resilience across 40 EM ETFs. The analysis identifies...
View From the EDGE® April 2026: A Two-Week Ceasefire, but Uncertainty Remains
Chief Investment Strategist Fritz Folts and Deputy CIO Eric Biegeleisen discuss 3EDGE's latest market outlook following a two‑week cease‑fire in the Iran conflict. They assess how the pause in hostilities could temper immediate volatility but leave underlying geopolitical risk intact....
Hungary Turns a New Page
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán conceded defeat on April 12, ending 16 years of rule after his Fidesz party lost its parliamentary majority. The centre‑right Tisza party, led by Peter Magyar, is projected to hold a two‑thirds supermajority and has...
Gas Prices EXPLODE as Hormuz Is Blocked! EP740
Survival Dispatch released a preview of its evening podcast warning that gasoline prices are set to surge as the Strait of Hormuz faces a new blockade. The U.S. Navy began restricting Iranian ports on April 13, raising concerns over a...
The WEO Wartime Economic Outlook
The IMF released its World Economic Outlook for April 2026, presenting a reference scenario that assumes a brief armed conflict. Global real GDP growth is projected at 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027, with headline inflation easing to 3.4% and...
Bridging Global Markets: Unlocking Opportunities in Korea’s Evolving Treasury Landscape
South Korea is shedding its historic "Korea discount" by overhauling the Treasury Bond market and aligning capital‑market standards with global indices. Deputy Prime Minister Koo Yun Cheol announced reforms such as 24‑hour FX trading, omnibus account integration, and extended settlement hours,...
The Balance Of Power In The World Is Shifting, & The US Will Be The Biggest Loser
The article contends that the United States is losing its global preeminence after an ill‑planned war in Iran, which exposed America’s strategic unreliability and drained trillions of dollars. A surprise defeat of Viktor Orbán in Hungary and a pending UK‑EU...
Hungary's Magyar to Reengage with EU but No Blank Cheques
Peter Magyar’s election ends Hungary’s veto that blocked the EU’s €90 bn ($97 bn) Ukraine aid package, clearing a major procedural hurdle. While Budapest will not provide weapons or direct financial support to Kyiv, the removal of the veto enables faster disbursement...
The Gulf Is a Vital Lynchpin of Global Stability, and It Goes Far Beyond Energy
The Gulf region underpins a massive labor‑migration network that funnels roughly 35 million foreign workers and $135 billion in annual remittances to the Global South. Egypt alone receives about $20 billion from 4‑5 million workers in the GCC, supporting roughly 20% of its population....
India May Go Slow on Trade Deal Till US Mid-Term Polls
India is likely to delay finalizing tariff commitments with the United States until after the November 2026 mid‑term elections. The pause follows a February 20 Supreme Court ruling that nullified the legal basis for the reciprocal tariffs set in the...
Elusive Peace
The United States announced it will mobilize naval vessels to block the Strait of Hormuz after Vice President Harris declared recent talks with Iran a failure. The cease‑fire set to expire on the 21st raises the prospect of renewed hostilities,...
Fix the Energy Problem Before the Next Downturn
The Philippines’ energy mix remains heavily import‑dependent, with 55 % of primary energy sourced abroad in 2024 and self‑sufficiency slipping to 45 %. Although the Department of Energy aims for 35 % renewable power by 2030, coal still supplied 62.5 % of electricity in...
The Price of Instability: Oil Shocks, Energy Transitions and MENA's Economic Future
A webinar hosted by the Natural Resource Governance Institute will examine how the ongoing conflicts in Iran, Lebanon and the broader MENA region could reshape oil and gas markets, fiscal stability, and energy‑transition pathways. Speakers include Crystol Energy CEO Carole...
IMF Warns Iran Conflict Could Spark Fifth Global Recession
the imf's worst case scenario for the iran war: oil at $110 this year, $125 next year. inflation hitting 6%. global growth falling below 2%. that would be a global recession — the fifth since 1980.
US Blockade Takes Effect, First Ships Turned Back
U.S. Declares Blockade Effective as First Ships Turned Back from Iranian Ports. When will the Strait be open with ships and cargo flowing securely both ways? https://t.co/D3uHFpWCMS
Montenegro and Albania Urged to Make the Case for EU Membership as 2030 Target Looms
Montenegro and Albania are the Western Balkan frontrunners aiming for EU membership by 2030, but Carnegie Europe warns they must persuade skeptical EU states to avoid delays. The paper notes steady progress in negotiations yet highlights rising political risk from...
China’s Export Controls Surge, Sparking Global Rationality Debate
China flexes trade power with soaring use of export controls Eskelund: “We really need people to step back, take a rational perspective on this and ask themselves whether this is really in the best interest of everyone." Meanwhile, former USG officials...
US Ends Iran Oil Waiver, Escalates Blockade, Threatens Peace Talks
U.S. Will Let Iran Oil Waiver Expire as Blockade Tightens Grip on Global Flows. What will this do to peace negotiations? https://t.co/RyO97zrsi0
India–US Eye 'Big-Ticket Energy Deals' Soon as PM Modi, Donald Trump Discuss West Asia Crisis
India and the United States are moving toward large‑ticket agreements, especially in energy, after a 40‑minute phone call between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump. The leaders reviewed progress in their Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership and stressed the...
Indonesia's Ongoing Push Beyond ASEAN Through Multilateral Diplomacy
Indonesia has been flirting with ways to break out of an ASEAN box through several administrations, not just Prabowo’s. Can point to bilateral diplomacy like this Russia/US contrast visual, pre-Prabowo versions of the same, plurilaterals, and of course G20 much...
Don't Cut China Supply Chain; De‑risking Brings Consequences
China. Do not reduce your China supply chain. Or face the consequences. The risk of de-risking.
Kroenig Quoted in The Wall Street Journal on the US Blockade of Hormuz
Atlantic Council senior director Matthew Kroenig was quoted in The Wall Street Journal discussing the United States’ consideration of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. He argued the Trump administration is intensifying pressure on Iran by threatening limited strikes...
China Cracks Down on Firms Ditching Its Suppliers
1/2 NYT: "As China’s mammoth trade surplus stokes global tensions, Beijing has enacted sweeping new regulations to investigate and punish foreign companies that stop using Chinese suppliers in response to political pressure at home." https://t.co/hHhm9lhuk8
China Halts Exports From Plastic Trinkets to Missile Magnets
Bessent: “China is stopping exports of various products” Products like “plastic trinkets”, or products like “the rare earth magnets we need to rebuild our missile stockpiles to continue our war v. Iran”? 🤔
The Hormuz Crisis and the Fate of the Global South
The sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted roughly a quarter of global oil, a fifth of LNG and a third of fertilizer shipments, prompting the IMF to label the disruption a “global yet asymmetric” shock. Import‑dependent economies...
China's Export Growth Falters as Global Demand Slumps
China’s Export Momentum Slows Amid Iran War—Weaker global demand threatens a growth driver for Beijing @hannahmiao_ @TByGraceZhu https://t.co/vpepE1zohz https://t.co/vpepE1zohz
Lagarde Reverses Stance: Europe Not Epicenter of Iran War Fallout
Lagarde: Europe NOT at epicenter of Iran war fallout. That's quite a turnaround from the Mar. 26 interview with The Economist, when she said: “We are facing a real shock…probably beyond what we can imagine at the moment.”
Mideast Conflict Could Still Trigger Market Turmoil, IMF Warns
The International Monetary Fund warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict could still trigger significant market turbulence, despite recent signs of resilience. In a blog accompanying its semi‑annual financial‑system risk report, the IMF cautioned that the current market stability should...
Iran Conflict Eases Yuan Pressure as Banks Shed $30B
The Iran war took the heat off China's currency. After facing strong appreciation pressure from November through February, the direction of pressure changed in March -- The state banks look to have reduced their foreign assets by ~...
UHNW Families Rebalancing Portfolios Amid Iran Fallout, Spelling Opportunity for Advisors
Ultra‑high‑net‑worth families are shifting 15‑20% of their holdings as the Iran conflict disrupts oil markets and fuels inflation and currency volatility. deVere Group reports a surge in its Family Office division, with clients rebalancing assets, jurisdictions, and governance structures. The...
How the US-Iran Conflict Is Impacting Portfolios and Advisors
The US‑Israel war with Iran has pushed oil prices higher, reigniting inflation and extending market volatility into 2026. Advisors, especially solo practitioners, are fielding client anxiety and revising portfolios to mitigate geopolitical risk. Chicory Wealth’s CEO Max Kulyk says his...
China Ramps up Export Controls Ahead of US‑China Talks
China has increased its use of export controls, underlining Beijing’s willingness to leverage its power over supply chains as Xi Jinping prepares for talks next month with US President Donald Trump. by @leahyjoseph, @cheng_leng_ & Wenjie Ding https://t.co/oGe6739GIG
The Africa We Build Summit and Kenya's Bold Infrastructure Blueprint
The Africa We Build Summit convened more than 1,000 heads of state, investors and industry leaders in Nairobi on April 23‑24, 2026, with Kenya President William Ruto delivering the keynote. At the summit Kenya unveiled its National Infrastructure Fund (NIF),...
Daily Memo: Lavrov Arrives in Beijing for Talks
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Beijing for an official visit, meeting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The talks will span bilateral cooperation, the war in Ukraine, and ongoing Middle‑East conflicts. The visit follows a series of high‑level exchanges that...
Péter Magyar Walks Line Between Brussels and Beijing on China Trade
Hungary’s newly elected prime minister, Péter Magyar, confirmed he will not overturn the country’s open‑door policy toward Chinese electric‑vehicle (EV) manufacturers, but he pledged tighter alignment with European Union rules. Magyar praised China’s global stature while saying any review of...
Lilly Investing Billions to Prepare for Overseas Oral GLP-1 Launches
Eli Lilly announced a $3 billion investment in China and a $125 million spend in Japan to build capacity for its newly approved oral GLP‑1 drug, orforglipron. The moves aim to localize production, shorten lead times and hedge against geopolitical disruptions. Analysts see...
IMF Raises India's Growth Forecast to 6.5% for FY27
The International Monetary Fund has lifted its forecast for India’s FY27 growth to 6.5%, up from 6.4% in January and 6.2% in October. The revision reflects a strong 2025 performance, a cut in U.S. tariffs to 10%, and offsets the...
IMF Warns Middle East Conflict Could Cut Growth to 2%
JUST IN: IMF warns sustained Middle East conflict could drop global GDP growth to 2%
Rise In China Rare Earth Exports
China’s rare‑earth shipments rose to 62.6 thousand metric tons in 2026, up from 55.4 thousand tons in 2024 and well above the pandemic low of 35.4 thousand tons in 2020. The surge includes the highest monthly export volume since 2009, reflecting robust demand...
HSBC Inks Dubai Partnership to Boost Capital Inflows as Bond Banker Jumps to BofA
HSBC Bank Middle East Limited signed a strategic agreement with Dubai's Department of Economy and Tourism to accelerate investment and capital inflows, part of Dubai's D33 agenda to double its economy by 2033. Within days, the bank lost Khaled Darwish,...
Chinese Electronics Giants Target Brazil’s 200 Million‑Consumer Market with New Stores and Wearables
Chinese electronics makers, led by Huawei and backed by new investments such as Mixue’s R$3 billion ($590 million) rollout, are opening flagship stores and planning hundreds of new outlets in Brazil. The shift from infrastructure to consumer tech reflects a $4.2 billion surge...
LVMH Q1 Revenue Falls 5% to $20.6B Amid Middle East Conflict
LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton posted first‑quarter 2026 revenue of €19.121 billion ($20.6 billion), a 5.9% decline from the same period last year, after the Middle East conflict curbed demand for its high‑end fashion and leather goods. The dip underscores the vulnerability...
Ghana Showcases Fiscal Surplus and 6% Growth at IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings
Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson used the IMF/World Bank spring meetings to detail Ghana’s turnaround, citing 6% real GDP growth in 2025, inflation down to 3.2% by March 2026, and a primary surplus of 2.6% of GDP. The presentation...
Trump Orders Hormuz Blockade, Crude Surges Above $100 a Barrel
President Donald Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, halting Iranian oil shipments and driving Brent crude above $102 and WTI past $103 per barrel. The move ignited a sharp rally in energy markets, dragged...
IMF Lowers 2026 Global GDP Growth Forecast to 3.1% vs 3.3% Prior
The IMF trimmed its 2026 global GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3%, citing the Middle East conflict and higher oil prices. The United States sees a modest downgrade to 2.3%, while the euro area falls to 1.1% and China...
Cheap, Underweighted, and Ready to Move. Why This Dormant Emerging Market...
Eurizon SLJ Capital, managing over $432 billion, predicts Chinese equities will rally about 10% by year‑end, lifting the CSI 300 past the 5,000 mark. The forecast rests on low valuations—roughly 18‑times forward earnings—alongside a stabilising property sector and abundant household savings shifting...