Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
BofA analyst sees rupee slipping to ₹98‑99 and fiscal deficit widening to 5% in FY27
BofA Securities analyst Rahul Bajoria projects the Indian rupee will fall to around ₹98‑99 within the next year. He also expects the FY27 fiscal deficit to expand to 5% of GDP, above the government's 4.3% target, driven by higher fertilizer subsidies, an excise‑duty cut on fuel and softer tax collections, adding roughly 150 basis points to the shortfall.
Asia’s Outlook Under Higher Oil Prices
Asia can currently absorb the recent oil‑price surge, but the region’s heavy reliance on imported energy makes it vulnerable if prices stay high. Japan and the Philippines source almost 90% of their oil from the Middle East, while China and India import roughly 40‑50%. A 10% price increase could shave 40‑60 basis points off current‑account balances and trigger currency depreciation in the Thai baht, Korean won, Philippine peso and Indian rupee. Subsidies in Indonesia, Thailand and India provide limited buffers, but the overall trade‑balance strain could pressure inflation and monetary policy.
Central Asia’s ‘Soft Confederation’ Has a Hard Limit
Central Asia’s five states (C5) have coalesced around a sovereignty‑first coordination model, dubbed a “soft confederation,” that emphasizes consensus and minimal delegation. Recent C5+ diplomatic rounds—an EU summit in Samarkand, a U.S. White House meeting, and Germany’s C5+1 foreign‑minister talks—have...
Chinese Debates on a Fragmenting Global Order | Sinification: February 2026
The February Sinification digest captures a widening debate within China over how to navigate a fragmenting global order. Analysts propose a shift from free‑trade to “managed trade” frameworks, while others call for crystal‑clear economic red lines comparable to Taiwan policy....
Is Anthropic Building Rwanda’s AI Future — or Its Dependence?
Anthropic signed a three‑year memorandum of understanding with Rwanda to deploy its Claude AI tools in health and education, offering developer access and training for public‑sector coders. Rwanda’s ICT minister touts the deal as a boost for national AI capacity,...
Africa Reckons with Oil Price Spike as Iran War Widens
The United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran, triggering a sharp rise in global oil prices. Brent crude surged 13% before settling 8.5% higher, marking its biggest daily jump in nearly three years. The conflict has halted...
Death and Spreadsheets: Cartel Excels Reveal Narco Wages
Mexican authorities seized spreadsheets from the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación that detail salaries for each rank, exposing how little the organization pays its members. The leak coincided with a viral AI‑generated video warning youths against joining cartels after the recent...
Asia Daily: March 2, 2026
Asia’s political landscape saw several notable moves in early March 2026. China’s top advisory body set its agenda for the CPPCC session, while Japan rushed its fiscal 2026 budget and adopted a cautious stance on the Iran‑Israel conflict. South Korea’s...
Platinum Credit Uganda Secures $4m to Boost MSME Lending
Platinum Credit Uganda, a Platcorp subsidiary, secured a $4 million, 24‑month investment from Swiss asset manager Symbiotics to broaden financing for low‑income households and micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) across Uganda. The capital, disbursed on 22 December 2025, enabled a phased rollout...
Inside the Fund Taking Women Asset Managers to the Next Level
In 2025, women-only founders raised just 0.9% of African startup capital, while women-led firms received only 2.2% of funding. The African Women Impact Fund (AWIF), launched with $60 million and bolstered by an extra $10 million from Standard Bank, aims to close...
Trust Collateral: The Missing Variable in Climate Finance Mobilization
Development finance in 2026 faces a structural squeeze: official development assistance dropped 9 % in 2024 and continues to tighten while climate‑related funding needs soar into the trillions. The gap is most acute for emerging markets, which bear the highest capital...
RAW Business: African Female Leaders Rethink Leadership Frameworks for a Changing Global Economy
The 2025 RAW Conference in Nairobi urged African female leaders to design indigenous leadership and equity frameworks instead of relying on imported Western models. Panelists highlighted the shortcomings of performative diversity and called for structures grounded in African realities to...
Brazil Strengthens Agricultural Partnership with the Philippines at WOFEX Drinks and Bakes 2026
Brazil deepened its agricultural partnership with the Philippines at WOFEX Drinks and Bakes 2026, showcasing five firms that offer value‑added beverages, superfoods, and coffee products. The Brazil Pavilion highlighted innovative, sustainability‑focused offerings such as Amazon‑sourced craft gin, açaí bowls, and...
List of Alert Levels Raised by PH Gov't Across Middle East and What They Mean
The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) released its latest Crisis Alert Levels for Middle‑East nations, placing Palestine, Syria and Yemen at Level 4, Iraq and Lebanon at Level 3, and Iran and Israel at Level 2, while Jordan remains at Level 1 and...
Philippine Bank Deposits Hit ₱21 Trillion as Account Numbers Surge
Total deposit liabilities in the Philippine banking system climbed to ₱20.9 trillion at the end of Q3 2025, a 7.3% year‑on‑year rise driven by a 20.4% surge in deposit accounts to 166.6 million. The increase followed a March 2025 decision to double...
The New Critical Minerals Race – Why the US-China Rivalry Will Be Decided in the Global South
Critical minerals have become the centerpiece of the U.S.-China rivalry, but the contest is playing out in Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America. While China dominates mid‑stream processing of rare earths and battery materials, Washington is building "friend‑shoring" partnerships to...
Book Review: India’s High-Tech Leap
Sunil Mani’s new book India’s High‑Tech Leap reviews the rise of six high‑tech sectors—pharmaceuticals, software services, COVID‑19 vaccines, wind turbines, solar photovoltaics and electric vehicles—under India’s Make‑in‑India and Atmanirbhar Bharat initiatives. He credits government intervention and public‑private collaboration for early successes but flags...
India's Cumulative Exports Rise to $720.76 Billion in Apr-Jan 2025-26, up 6.15%
India’s cumulative exports reached $720.76 billion in April‑January 2025‑26, a 6.15% increase over the same period last year. Services exports surged 10.57% to $354.13 billion, while merchandise categories such as electronics and pharmaceuticals posted broad‑based gains. Defence exports hit a record Rs 23,622 crore,...
Agency of Foreign Trade Warns of Trade Disruption Due to Middle East Conflict
Vietnam's Agency of Foreign Trade issued Dispatch No. 229/XNK‑TLH warning that the recent escalation of Middle East hostilities poses serious risks to international transport, trade and supply chains. The agency highlighted expected spikes in consumer‑goods, fuel and oil prices, which...
Merz Is Wrong: Why Hard Work Won’t Beat China
German politician Merz blamed low productivity for China’s competitive edge, arguing Germans must work harder. The article counters that China’s advantage stems from systemic factors—an undervalued yuan, extensive subsidies and strategic industrial policy—that create a 40‑60% price gap despite higher...
What Has Museveni Done for Uganda?
Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni secured a seventh term in the January 2026 elections with 71.6% of the vote, while opposition leader Bobi Wine received 24% amid allegations of fraud and election‑related violence. Over his 40‑year rule, Museveni has overseen steady...
South Africa’s Move to Greener Energy Is Creating New Jobs, but Benefits Aren’t Evenly Spread
South Africa’s green transition is boosting employment, with green jobs rising from 12.4% of the labour force in 2022 to 14.8% in 2024. Growth is concentrated in utilities, mining, construction and finance, driven by government procurement and sustainable‑finance policies. However,...
Indonesia’s Geothermal Quest: Where Massive Potential Meets Structural Reality
Indonesia holds roughly 24‑29 GW of technically recoverable geothermal resources but operates only about 2.71 GW, a fraction of its potential. A new partnership between Star Energy Geothermal and US firm SLB aims to de‑risk the Sekincau field and assets in North...
India's Godavari Biorefineries to Start Grain-Based Distillery in June Quarter
India’s Godavari Biorefineries will commission a 200 kilolitres‑per‑day grain‑based distillery in the June quarter, adding the ability to switch between sugarcane and corn as feedstock. The move addresses margin pressure from fixed cane payments and volatile sugar prices, while leveraging the...
Indian Buyers May Find Pistachios, Figs and Raisins Pricey Following Gulf Crisis
Indian buyers are likely to face higher prices for pistachios, figs and raisins as the Gulf crisis shuts key Iranian and Afghan export routes. Pistachio prices have risen about ₹100 per kilogram, while figs are up a similar amount and...
Two Landmark Vietnam Hotels Sold for Combined 53 7million
Two landmark hotel assets in Vietnam were sold for a combined $53.7 million. Singapore‑based UOL Group off‑loaded the 186‑room Park Royal Saigon in Ho Chi Minh City to a domestic investor, while the five‑star Hotel Perle D’Orient Cat Ba on Cat Ba Island was...
Washington Built the AI Infrastructure AUKUS Needs — Then Locked Allies Out
The United States has built the Genesis supercomputing platform, giving American AI firms structured access through Cooperative Research and Development Agreements, but it excludes AUKUS partners. While Australia and the United Kingdom pour billions into quantum and autonomous defense technologies,...
For Oil Prices, It’s The Fear Not The Barrels
The death of Iran’s supreme leader and subsequent missile exchanges have raised alarms about a possible Straits of Hormuz shutdown, which could cut 10‑20 million barrels per day from global supply. Analysts debate the price impact, with some warning that panic...
South Korea Faces Renewable Energy Safety Concerns
South Korea’s National Assembly approved amendments that dramatically reduce setback distances for renewable‑energy installations, shifting authority from local governments to the central government. The change comes amid a spate of high‑profile accidents, including a wind turbine collapse, a turbine‑blade fire,...
The Deluge, the Paper Cup, and Washington’s Lack of Urgency on Guam
Former Guam lieutenant governor Michael Cruz warns that the island’s strategic value in the Indo‑Pacific is outpacing U.S. defensive investments. While Guam anchors air, naval and logistics operations essential for power projection, China and North Korea view it as a...
Three Indian Stocks Poised to Profit
India’s economy is modernising rapidly, creating a fertile backdrop for mid‑cap equities. The India Capital Growth Fund highlights three stocks positioned to capture this wave: Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), which benefits from a deepening commodity market; Aether Industries, a niche...
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Gulf States Condemn 'Unjustified' Iranian Attacks at Emergency Foreign Ministers Meeting
Gulf Cooperation Council foreign ministers convened an emergency video‑linked session on March 1, condemning Iran’s recent missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar as “flagrant and unjustified.” The attacks were a retaliation to joint US‑Israeli operations...
Iran's Larijani Denies US Talks
Senior adviser Ali Larijani, a key figure in Iran’s post‑Khamenei crisis management, denied reports that Tehran was ready to resume talks with Washington via Omani mediators, posting “We will not negotiate with the United States” on X on March 1. His denial...
India Manufacturing Growth Hits Four-Month High in February, PMI Shows
India’s manufacturing PMI climbed to 56.9 in February, the strongest level in four months, driven by a surge in domestic new orders and higher production volumes. Export orders, however, slipped to a 17‑month low as U.S. tariff uncertainty lingered. Input‑cost...
Geopolitical Risk and AI Risk Converging
The Capital Flows Research team notes that geopolitical instability and AI safety concerns are increasingly overlapping, creating a compounded risk environment. The analyst introduced a new AI-driven mapping tool and released a suite of TradingView indicators to monitor these dynamics....
SET Index Falls on Iran-US Conflict
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) opened down 1.73% to 1,501.78 as investors reacted to the Iran‑US conflict. Energy‑linked shares such as PTTEP and PTT rose, while non‑energy stocks like Gulf Energy, Bumrungrad Hospital and Airports of Thailand fell sharply....
Does International Law Still Matter? The Strike on the Girls’ School in Iran Shows Why We Need It
A strike on the Shajarah Tayyebeh girls’ elementary school in Minab, Iran, reportedly killed more than 150 people, many of them children, and injured dozens. Iranian officials say the school was hit while adjacent to an IRGC naval base, but...
ASIA BLOG: The Fall of the Islamic Republic of Iran Will Boost the Rise of Asian Business Links No End
An Israeli‑U.S. strike that killed Iran’s supreme leader has weakened the Islamic Republic, prompting speculation that its eventual collapse could reshape Asian economic ties. Iran holds the world’s fourth‑largest oil reserves and the second‑largest gas deposits, assets long constrained by...
Iran Conflict Spurs Oil, Markets, Crypto, Uranium Opportunities
Thoughts? The Iran war and oil crisis affect your money across four key areas: oil prices and inflation, stock market volatility, cryptocurrency movements, and overlooked opportunities in uranium and energy security stocks.
Dollar Rally Hits All EM; Oil Ties Soon Diverge
The Dollar is rallying on risk-off price action, including against EM (black). Markets are not yet differentiating between oil exporters and oil importers, so everyone's getting hit in EM, but that'll soon give way to markets discerning between these two. https://t.co/AOkYSZgAuL...
Australian Airline Qantas' Shares Fall More than 10% on US-Iran Conflict
Qantas Airways’ shares plunged more than 10% to A$8.92, their lowest level in ten months, after the United States and Israel launched large‑scale strikes on Iran, sending oil prices sharply higher. The geopolitical flare‑up forced the closure of key Middle...
China’s Two Sessions Reveal Economic Outlook Amid High Stakes
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ to Shed Light on What Lies Ahead for Economy—Beijing’s target-setting takes place against a high-stakes backdrop https://t.co/sxAHsLFpcV https://t.co/sxAHsLFpcV
Japanese Investment in China Jumps 55% Amid Tensions
“At a time when Tokyo and Beijing appear to be drifting further apart politically, Japanese capital is moving in the opposite direction…Japanese foreign direct investment into China surged by 55.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025.” https://t.co/osyTCAOqOp
Uzbekistan’s January Foreign Trade Rises 29% to $5.8bn
Uzbekistan’s foreign trade turnover jumped to $5.8 bn in January, a 29.2% year‑on‑year increase. Exports rose 26.7% to $1.69 bn, driven by industrial goods, food, chemicals and services, while imports climbed 30.3% to $4.14 bn, widening the trade deficit to $2.44 bn. China remained...
Asia's Undervalued Currencies Poised for Explosive Gains
Interesting piece from Bloomberg's Shuli Ren, on the risk that Asia's wildly undervalued currencies might have an explosive appreciation ... 1/3 https://t.co/j9M2wdl5ED
US-Israeli Strikes Against Iran Can Cause Plenty of Collateral Damage to Russia
The United States and Israel’s air campaign against Iran threatens the Russia‑Iran “North‑South” trade corridor, a lifeline that helps Moscow evade Western sanctions and sustain its war in Ukraine. The corridor, recently bolstered by a Russian‑Iran rail modernisation agreement, now...
Armenia and Azerbaijan Grapple with Potential Fallout From Blitz on Iran
Armenia and Azerbaijan are treading carefully after a US‑Israeli strike on Iran, fearing spill‑over effects on regional stability and their joint TRIPP trade corridor. Both governments have issued condolences to Tehran while publicly urging an immediate cease‑fire and denying any...
2026-03-02: IRGC Launches Largest Offensive, Attacking 20+ US Bases and Israel
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel conducted coordinated airstrikes against Iranian targets, prompting a massive retaliatory offensive by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IRGC launched the largest attack in its history, striking more than 20...
Middle East Conflict Spikes Oil, Lifts Dollar, Drags Dow
Further to the prior post: A classic initial market reaction to this weekend’s eruption of military conflict in the Middle East: Oil has surged over 10%, the Dollar has strengthened, and Dow futures have opened down some 500 points. #economy #markets #oil...
Korea Leads 2025 Surge in US Equity Inflows
If there is a real risk off move (& it is still an if) the structure of the inflows that have covered the US current account deficit will matter. Foreign buying of US equity surged in 2025, and no where more...
Asia-Pacific Fintech Funding Hits Decade-Low in 2025 as Investors Stay Cautious: KPMG
Fintech investment in Asia‑Pacific fell to a decade low in 2025, totaling $9.3 billion across 763 transactions, down from $11.7 billion in 2024. Venture capital supplied $7.5 billion of that amount, while mergers and acquisitions contributed $1.7 billion and private equity under $0.1 billion. Funding...