Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
BofA analyst sees rupee slipping to ₹98‑99 and fiscal deficit widening to 5% in FY27
BofA Securities analyst Rahul Bajoria projects the Indian rupee will fall to around ₹98‑99 within the next year. He also expects the FY27 fiscal deficit to expand to 5% of GDP, above the government's 4.3% target, driven by higher fertilizer subsidies, an excise‑duty cut on fuel and softer tax collections, adding roughly 150 basis points to the shortfall.
The Risk of Unknown Unknowns for Global Markets Amid War in Iran
The recent escalation between the United States, Israel and Iran highlights the market challenge of "unknown unknowns"—risks that defy traditional modeling. While investors have tools to hedge known shocks, the lack of definable parameters forces regulators to prioritize liquidity and orderly trading. Gulf Cooperation Council nations must provide transparent hydrocarbon data and stable financial markets to reassure investors. Energy prices may rise modestly, but supply resilience and strategic reserves could dampen severe disruptions.
Bettors Profit Hugely From Suspiciously Timed Wagers on Iran War
Bettors on the prediction platform Polymarket earned roughly $1 million by wagering that the United States would strike Iran on February 28, 2026, the same day President Donald Trump announced the attack. Bloomberg identified six newly created accounts that bought shares at...
The AI Trade Is Global: Derek Yan on Dollar Weakness, EM Tech, and Hidden Concentration Risk
In this episode, host Melanie Schaefer and CraneShares senior investment strategist Derek Yan discuss how the concentration of U.S. mega‑cap stocks is driving investors to seek diversification in emerging markets (EM), especially as the dollar shows signs of weakening. Yan...
Iran's Inaccurate Missiles Threaten Jerusalem's Sacred Sites
The Islamic Regime in Iran is recklessly firing missiles/drones at Jerusalem, despite well documented accuracy limitations in parts of its ballistic missile arsenal. Jerusalem is home to more than 1 million people and contains sacred sites of three religions: the...
Iran Braces for Risky Transition as Khamenei's Death Leaves Power Vacuum
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei died, leaving Iran without a clear successor. An interim leadership council has been appointed, but the process for selecting a new supreme leader remains opaque. The power vacuum raises concerns over potential hard‑line crackdowns on...
Japan Shipping Group Says Strait of Hormuz Closed to Energy, Other Traffic
Japan’s largest maritime shipping conglomerate announced that the Iranian Navy has officially barred all vessels from transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The ban specifically targets energy cargoes, including crude oil and liquefied natural gas, effectively shutting the narrow waterway to...
India Set to Revive 1984 Water Project After Revoking Pact with Pakistan
India is set to restart the 1984 Jhelum River water‑management project in Kashmir, marking the first unilateral water‑flow decision since it suspended the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan nine months ago. The revival follows a brief armed clash between the...
Japan's Hospitals Expand Foreign Patient Care
Japan’s healthcare system is rapidly expanding multilingual services as inbound tourism surges, with 2,500 hospitals and clinics now listed as foreign‑patient friendly—a 1.6‑fold rise over six years. The Hakuba International Clinic exemplifies the trend, handling 40‑50 walk‑ins daily, 80% of...
Latam Liftoff Peels Second-Tier Layers
Latin America’s MSCI index surged 20% in the first two months of the year, lifting the region’s weight in the global benchmark from 5% to roughly 15%, a level not seen since the early 2000s. The original “Big 3” markets—Argentina, Brazil...
Charai in The National Interest: How the US Can Sustain Deterrence After Khamenei
The Atlantic Council essay by Ahmed Charai examines how the United States can preserve a credible deterrence posture in the Middle East after the eventual death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Charai argues that Washington must blend conventional force,...
Hungary's Edortech Unveils Patented Tin-Anode Technology that Could Transform Global Battery Production
Hungarian startup Edortech announced its patented tin‑anode system, ONLi, ready for scale‑up after a decade of research. Independent audits show the anode can deliver up to 70 % higher energy density and 1.8 times the capacity of conventional graphite or Si‑C anodes...
Serbian Embassy in Tehran Damaged in Airstrikes, Staff Relocating to Baku
The Serbian embassy in Tehran was damaged during Iranian airstrikes on March 1, though no staff were injured. A nearby military base was also hit, prompting the embassy team to relocate to Baku under standard diplomatic protocols. President Aleksandar Vučić confirmed...
West Asia Tensions May Squeeze Margins in Energy-Intensive Sectors
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are prompting concerns about rising energy costs for Indian firms, especially those in energy‑intensive sectors. While the overall share of power and fuel expenses in corporate cost structures has softened to about 4.3% in...
Iran Conflict Threatens India’s $4.5 Billion Electronics Exports to Gulf via UAE, Hormuz Route Disruptions
India’s electronics and tech exports to the Gulf, valued at $4.5 billion in FY26, face disruption as the Iran‑Israel conflict restricts airspace and the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The United Arab Emirates, the second‑largest buyer, accounted for $4.1 billion of those shipments,...
New Study Finds 6 Types of ‘Discouraged’ Workers in Australia – and Why They Stop Job-Hunting
A new Australian study using HILDA survey data and latent class analysis identified six distinct profiles of discouraged workers – people who want a job but have stopped looking. The groups range from young, low‑educated men to older, well‑educated women...
West Asia Conflict May Spike Dal Prices; Rice Exports to Iran at Risk
The ongoing West Asia conflict is expected to push global pulse prices higher, threatening a rise in dal costs for Indian households. India imports roughly 5‑6 million tonnes of pulses from Myanmar, Canada and Africa, leaving the domestic market vulnerable to...
Hormuz Trade Slows to Trickle as Attacks Continue
The Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil conduit, has seen trade reduced to a trickle after a wave of escalatory attacks. U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, followed by Iranian reprisals triggered by the reported assassination of Supreme Leader...
Maynilad Reconsiders ₱30-Billion Plant Site to Sync with Kaliwa Dam
Maynilad Water Services is moving its ₱30 billion Teresa water‑treatment plant from Rizal to a site within its West Zone concession to better align with the upcoming Kaliwa dam. The relocation shortens pipeline distance, aiming to cut non‑revenue water losses and...
Discovery World Invests ₱265 Million to Expand Palawan Properties
Discovery World Corp. is injecting ₱265 million into its Palawan resort portfolio, subscribing to ₱250 million of shares in Euro Pacific Resorts and ₱15 million in Palawan Cove to fund new beachfront developments and bolster working capital. The move also raises JT Perle Corp.'s...
BIR Turns From Taxing to Dismantling Philippine Offshore Gaming
The Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) has moved from taxing to dismantling Philippine offshore gaming operations (POGOs) by issuing a revenue memorandum circular that bans and declares all POGOs illegal, repealing the tax law that previously regulated them. This enforcement...
Philippines Eyes $800-Million ADB Backstop for North-South Commuter Railway Operator
The Philippines is seeking up to $800 million from the Asian Development Bank as a partial credit guarantee to backstop availability payments for the North‑South Commuter Railway (NSCR) operator. The guarantee, equivalent to 24 months of payments, aims to mitigate government...
Nickel Asia Diversifies Into Geothermal, Overseas Investments
Nickel Asia Corp (NAC) posted a 312% jump in net income to ₱6.27 billion, driven by record nickel ore prices and a 56% rise in EBITDA. The company announced three new wholly‑owned subsidiaries to support a geothermal holding entity, a shared‑services...
MUFG: Philippine Trade Costs to Fall After US Court Ruling
MUFG Bank expects U.S. tariffs on Philippine imports to decline following the Supreme Court’s decision that curbed the Trump administration’s emergency‑powers tariff authority. The bank notes that exemptions for high‑value semiconductors and key agricultural products should keep effective trade costs...
VIDEO: IDF Destroys Tehran Command Centres After Iranian Missile Kills Nine Israelis
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched airstrikes on Tehran, destroying multiple command headquarters, including the General Staff for Internal Security, after an Iranian missile strike killed nine Israelis in Beit Shemesh. Israel reported firing about 100 ballistic missiles at Iran...
Iraqis Call for March to 'Uproot' US Embassy in Baghdad
Iraqi groups linked to the Islamic Resistance announced a mass march to storm the U.S. embassy in Baghdad on March 1, targeting the Green Zone at 8:30 pm. Security forces responded with tear gas and water cannons, dispersing protesters who had already...
Iran Denies Reports of Former President Ahmadinejad's Death in US-Israeli Strikes
Iranian officials have rejected claims that former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was killed in the recent US‑Israeli strikes on Tehran's Narmak district. The joint operation on February 28 reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior officials, sparking a...
Iran's Central Bank Raises Money Transfer Caps
On March 2, Iran’s Central Bank lifted daily transfer limits across its banking system to ease pressure from high inflation and the ongoing war. The POL instant network cap rose to IRR 1 billion, card‑to‑card limits to IRR 150 million, and payment transaction ceilings to...
PETER’S ASIAN BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Monday 2 March 2026, 06:00 Hong Kong
Over the weekend, coordinated US and Israeli strikes hit Iran, prompting missile and drone retaliation that shut Dubai’s airport and threatened oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict pushed Brent crude toward $73 a barrel and heightened geopolitical...
Gulf Stocks Fall, Kuwait Halts Trading as Iran Targets GCC Countries After US-Israeli Strikes
Geopolitical tensions surged after coordinated US‑Israeli strikes on Iran, prompting Iranian missile and drone attacks across the Gulf. Kuwait’s Boursa Kuwait suspended all trading, while Saudi, Oman and Bahrain markets slipped 1‑2% despite Saudi Aramco’s 2.6% rally on rising oil...
Borderlands Mexico: Canada, Mexico Draw Record Foreign Investment in 2025
Canada and Mexico posted record foreign direct investment in 2025, underscoring North America’s growing role as a manufacturing hub. Canada received $96.8 billion, the strongest inflow in 18 years, while Mexico attracted a historic $40.87 billion, a 10.8% year‑over‑year rise. U.S. investors...
Iran, I Saw, I Conquered?
Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes inside Iran, coupled with reports of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, have triggered a sharp geopolitical escalation. Diplomacy appears to have given way to force, raising the prospect of retaliatory attacks and broader regional spillover....
Recto Joins PCG Auxiliary
Executive Secretary Ralph Recto was commissioned as an auxiliary vice admiral of the Philippine Coast Guard Auxiliary during a ceremony aboard BRP Teresa Magbanua, highlighting the administration’s push to strengthen maritime governance. The government allocated ₱42.52 billion to the Coast Guard this year...
Visa Targets North Africa Growth with New Egypt, Libya and Sudan Sub-Region
Visa announced a new sub‑regional structure covering Egypt, Libya and Sudan, part of its broader North Africa, Levant and Pakistan growth strategy. The reorganisation appoints Malak El Baba as country manager for the three markets and moves veteran Ahmed Mohey...
China Calls for End to Strikes on Iran, UN Says the Hostilities “Undermine International Peace and Security”
China’s foreign ministry called for an immediate cessation of Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran, urging both parties to respect Iran’s sovereignty and resume dialogue. The statement followed unverified reports that Beijing may offer to mediate between Tehran and the...
COMMENT: Modi’s Silence on Middle East Crisis Exposes His Lack of International Clout
Prime Minister Narendra Modi remained silent as missiles struck Iran, Israel and other Middle Eastern states, opting instead to post cricket highlights, investment news and birthday wishes on social media. His silence follows a high‑profile visit to Israel that suggested...
Passengers Stranded at Delhi's IGI Airport Amid Escalated Israel-Iran Conflict
Passengers at Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International Airport were left stranded after a wave of flight cancellations triggered by airspace closures across the Middle East. The closures follow coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, prompting the Ministry of Civil...
Why the US‑Israel Strike on Iran Matters Now
the us and israel attacked iran. why now and what comes next? i break down the decision, the risks of escalation, and what to watch. with @ted
US and Israel Intensify Strikes to Dismantle Iran's Security
American and Israeli forces are showing no sign of letting up in their attacks on Iranian targets. A complete liquidation of the country's security apparatus is the clear goal. Watch the full video analysis and access daily coverage of the Iran...
How AI Adoption Is Reshaping India’s Agri Sector: Risks, Opportunities & Advisory Imperatives
Artificial intelligence is moving from pilot projects to core policy in India’s agriculture, backed by the Digital Agriculture Mission, AgriStack and NITI Aayog’s AI strategy. AI‑driven precision farming, climate forecasting and market analytics are already improving yields, water use and...
India Hedges Bets, Deepens Ties with EU, Japan, Brazil, Canada
By deepening ties with the EU, Japan, Brazil, and Canada, India is WISELY HEDGING ITS GEOPOLITICAL BETS. STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY PREVAILS AGAIN. https://t.co/TfGLoGF8lA
Oil Surge Boosts
The decision tree for tonight - when markets open - follows from oil. In 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, oil rose 40%, which drove the Brazilian Real and other commodity exporters in Latin America a lot stronger. It weighed on...
US Strikes on Iran Lead to Renewed Demands for War Powers Legislation
Democratic lawmakers condemned President Trump’s unilateral strikes on Iran, labeling them dangerous and unnecessary. They are pushing a Senate‑originated War Powers Resolution to require congressional approval before any further US military action against Iran. The effort has attracted bipartisan backing,...
US Weapon Supply Hinges on Chinese Components Despite Oil Strikes
"Amateurs talk tactics; professionals study logistics." -USMC Gen. Robert Barrow Many rightfully noting US hitting Chinese oil supplies; few noting that US cannot restock weapons without Chinese components. Left headline: Wednesday of last week Right headline: WSJ today https://t.co/N0oRvB87DA
Thailand's Deflation Linked to Sub‑Golden Money Supply Growth
Thailand's January CPI is -0.6%/yr. That's the 10th consecutive month in DEFLATION. In the past 3 years, its Money Supply has grown BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 5.4-7.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting a 1-3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY...
Exports Jump 29 Pct to Record Feb. High on Surging Chip Demand
South Korea’s exports surged 29% year‑over‑year in February, hitting a record high. The jump was driven primarily by a sharp rebound in semiconductor shipments as global chip demand accelerated. The trade surplus expanded sharply, reinforcing the country’s position as a...
Korea and Taiwan Set for Massive Chip Surpluses
If there isn't a new energy shock (a big if), the surpluses of the chip exporting powers (Korea and Taiwan) are going to be absolutely stunning this year. 1/2 https://t.co/N2A7u4k1ai
Dubai's Woes Ripple Into India’s $45 Bn Remittances
Problems in Dubai are not just for people staying there - it spills over to India - we get $45 bn of remittances from the Middle East each year.
China's 2025 Economy: Hot Sectors Stuck Amid Cooling
“The Chinese economy in 2025…is like a giant machine where large parts are beginning to cool down, while a considerable part remains at high temperature. But the temperature of this part is difficult to conduct to the cooling parts.” @ChinaFile https://t.co/oC1Pwzm8je
Brazil's Oversized Money Supply Fuels Inflation Above Target
#BrazilWatch🇧🇷: Brazil's inflation is 4.4%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3.0% inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.6%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3.0%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
China Aims 5% Growth; Consumption, Innovation to Drive 2026
China Daily: “Around 5% seen as likely GDP target—Consumption, innovation expected to emerge as key economic engines in 2026” https://t.co/mvmKY53AFy