Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
GDP Revision Trims FY26 Size to ₹345 Lakh Crore; $4 Trillion Mark May Slip
India’s nominal GDP for FY 2025‑26 has been revised down to ₹345 lakh crore, a 3.3 % cut from the earlier ₹357 lakh crore estimate. In dollar terms this puts the economy at roughly $3.79 trillion, postponing the $4 trillion milestone to a later fiscal year. The downgrade also pushes the expected overtaking of Japan as the world’s third‑largest economy to FY 2027‑28. Economists, however, expect robust real‑GDP growth driven by consumption and investment to keep the longer‑term trajectory on track.
China: Policy Mix Guides 2026 Growth Path – UOB
UOB analyst Ho Woei Chen projects China’s 2026 real GDP growth at 4.7%, with the National People’s Congress likely setting a target range of 4.5‑5%. Inflation is expected to stay low, with a CPI target near 2% and actual inflation around 0.9%....
How to Deter Chinese Aggression Against Taiwan, with Rep. John Moolenaar
In a February 27 2026 Atlantic Council podcast, Rep. John Moolenaar, chairman of the House Select Committee on China, argued that deterring Chinese aggression in the Taiwan Strait is a core U.S. national‑security interest. He discussed the economic stakes of the U.S.–China rivalry...
CPF Confident for 2026 After Profit Surge
Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF) posted a net profit of 25.2 billion baht for 2025, up 29% year‑on‑year, driven by stronger gross margins and cost controls. Total sales fell 2% to 571 billion baht as a stronger baht weighed on overseas earnings, though...
2 Olympic Gold Medalists Show the Mixed Results of China’s Efforts to Bring Back Diaspora Talent
China’s municipal government paid Olympic skiers Eileen Gu and Beverly Zhu a combined $6.6 million in 2025, highlighting Beijing’s renewed push to lure diaspora talent. The effort builds on the legacy of the Thousand Talents and Qiming programs, which offer generous...
IMF’s No‑Bailout Stance Pushes China, Ecuador Back to Markets
Striking that China has taken $2 billion off the table since 2021 while the IMF put $2 billion in ... Talk about not using IMF funds to bailout China back during the pandemic turned out to be just that, talk. You...
Why the Concern over Capital Flows
The Reserve Bank of India introduced tighter rules on external commercial borrowings to curb volatility in the capital account, even as the current account remains stable. While gross foreign direct investment (FDI) has averaged $78 billion annually, equity repatriation has surged,...
EM-DM Convergence: A Secular Trade on Deglobalization
Bill Campbell argues that deglobalization is creating a secular convergence between emerging‑market and developed‑market sovereign debt. While investors remain fixated on U.S. policy, structural shifts have strengthened EM fiscal positions and left DM yields underpriced. This mispricing opens a yield‑enhancing,...
Did Indonesia Just Lock Itself Into an Energy Future It Can’t Afford?
Indonesia’s new trade agreement obliges the country to import $15 billion of U.S. oil and gas each year, contradicting President Prabowo Subianto’s pledge for energy self‑sufficiency. The deal was signed to sidestep tariffs that were later nullified, leaving Indonesia locked into...
One Month in, Can Honduras’ New President Put the Country on the Path to Lasting Economic Gains?
Honduras’ new president Nasry Asfura has launched a suite of early reforms focused on fiscal austerity, expanding the Temporary Import Regime and re‑joining the World Bank’s ICSID to boost investor confidence. His administration secured a meeting with former President Donald...
Merz in China: Germany Between De-Risking and Strategic Partnership
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz concluded a two‑day visit to China, pledging a comprehensive strategic partnership while emphasizing the need for de‑risking amid trade imbalances. He highlighted persistent overcapacity and urged Beijing to play a constructive role in curbing Russia’s war in...
China Eastern Airlines to Expand India Operations, Plans Mumbai-Shanghai Service From May
China Eastern Airlines will launch a Mumbai‑Shanghai service in May, operating four weekly flights with an Airbus A330. The carrier also plans to revive its Kunming‑Kolkata route for the summer season. Its Shanghai‑Delhi flight, upgraded to a daily schedule, is...
The Future of Japan’s Regional Banks: Demographics, Mergers, and a Tight Market
Japan’s regional banks, once pillars of local growth, now face shrinking deposits and borrowers as the nation records its 16th consecutive year of population decline. Consolidation is accelerating, highlighted by the 2025 Aomori Bank‑Michinoku Bank merger that now controls about...
PM Modi Urges India Inc to Step up Investment in Infrastructure and Innovation
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, speaking at a post‑Budget webinar, urged India Inc to dramatically increase investment in infrastructure and innovation. He highlighted a ten‑fold rise in public capital expenditure over the past 11 years, from roughly ₹2 lakh crore to over ₹12 lakh crore,...
Angola Takes Centre Stage at ITB Berlin 2026: Political Gesture or Strategic Tourism Play?
Angola will headline the opening gala of ITB Berlin’s 60th edition on 2 March 2026, using the platform to unveil its new tourism brand “Visit Angola – The Rhythm of Life.” The event will host 700‑800 high‑level guests, showcasing Angolan culture,...
EU Carbon Prices Slip 20% Amid Reform Push
CHART OF THE DAY: The cost of European CO2 allowances has fallen ~20% in recent days after several key countries asked Brussels for a reform. Italy has gone as far as asking the Emissions Trading Syste to be suspended. CO2...
Viral Satellite Imagery of U.S. Military Assets Around Iran NOT Taken by Chinese Satellites: Hu Bo
Chinese firm MizarVision posted high‑resolution satellite images showing U.S. F‑22 fighters at an Israeli base, sparking speculation that the pictures came from Chinese satellites. Analysts from the South China Sea Probing Initiative, led by Hu Bo, used satellite ephemeris and resolution...
China Is Playing the Long Game over Iran
China is maintaining a cautious diplomatic stance toward Iran despite a 25‑year strategic partnership and its role as Tehran’s primary oil buyer, accounting for over 80% of Iranian exports in 2025. Beijing publicly urges restraint and dialogue while opposing Iran’s...
Greenland’s Critical Raw Material Potential and China’s Current Interest in the Arctic
In this episode of Polar Geopolitics, host Eric Pagli discusses China's growing interest in the Arctic, focusing on Greenland's critical raw material potential, with insights from China specialist Gerhard Hegelund and Greenland mining expert Nick Bake‑Heilman. The conversation explores China's...
India’s Fiscal Deficit Touches ₹9.8 Lakh Crore in April–January
India’s fiscal deficit for April‑January 2026 hit ₹9.8 lakh crore, about 63 % of the government’s full‑year estimate. Net tax receipts climbed to ₹20.94 lakh crore, while non‑tax revenue rose to ₹5.57 lakh crore. Total government outlays increased to ₹36.9 lakh crore, with capital expenditure reaching ₹8.4 lakh crore. The widening...
Capital Markets as Pillar for Vietnam S Double Digit Growth
Vietnam aims double‑digit economic growth, but banks face loan‑to‑deposit caps and high debt ratios, limiting credit expansion. Capital markets are positioned to provide long‑term funding, improve transparency, and diversify financing sources. By the end of 2025 the stock market topped...
UBS AM Lists Two India-Focused ETFs on London Stock Exchange
UBS Asset Management has listed two India‑focused UCITS ETFs on the London Stock Exchange. The MSCI India SF ETF uses synthetic replication to track the MSCI India Total Return Index with a 0.15% total expense ratio. The MSCI India Universal...
Why Trump’s Criticism of Maliki Strengthens Him in Iraq
President Trump publicly rejected Nouri al‑Maliki’s nomination as Iraq’s prime minister, a move that back‑fired by rallying Shiite factions around the banner of national sovereignty. The episode exposes Iraq’s elite‑driven, communal power‑sharing system, where prime‑minister selection occurs outside parliament and...
A Revitalized US Indian Ocean Strategy Cannot Ignore Africa
The article argues that the United States’ Indo‑Pacific strategy is incomplete because it largely ignores the western Indian Ocean and Africa, where China has established a growing military footprint, notably its base in Djibouti and expanding ties in Mauritius and...
Paradigm Change in the 2025 National Security Strategy
The 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) reorients U.S. competition with China from a primarily military focus to an economic‑centric paradigm, emphasizing political warfare, gray‑zone activities, and supply‑chain resilience. It calls for leveraging alliances, reindustrialization, and civilian tools such as the...
US Missile Deliveries to Philippines Are Pointless and Escalatory
The United States announced plans to deploy additional advanced missiles in the northern Philippines, positioning them as a deterrent against Chinese aggression near Taiwan and the South China Sea. Washington argues that mobile, land‑based systems complicate any Chinese offensive and...
This Week's Chart, Next Week's Markets
The Economist’s language analysis shows State of the Union speeches have increasingly dwelled on past achievements, a trend echoed by President Trump’s nostalgic rhetoric. Investors are left questioning the outlook for a country that spends more time reminiscing than forecasting....
Global Funds Return to India as Earnings Outlook Improves
Global funds are pouring back into Indian equities, buying about $2.1 billion of shares in February – the strongest monthly inflow in eight months. The rebound follows a record outflow in 2025 and is driven by a newly signed US‑India trade...
Weaker Dollar Raises Import Costs, Boosts Export Appeal
"When the dollar falls in value... it takes more of our dollars to buy stuff from abroad." That’s the basic math of a weaker currency: imports cost more, and so do the everyday items with imported parts. The upside is...
AI Job Losses Could Spark Credit and Debt Crisis Soon
The question is NOT "Will AI take all the white-collar jobs or not?" (It won't.) The questions are: 1. "How many white-collar jobs does AI have to take to trigger a consumer credit, & then government receipt & global sovereign...
Energy Insiders Podcast: China’s Clean Energy Surge Reshapes Coal, Oil and the Grid
China’s clean‑energy surge is reshaping its energy landscape, with record solar installations and a 30% jump in wind capacity driving more than a third of the nation’s economic growth. Lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta highlighted that renewable build‑out now outweighs traditional...
Strong Current Accounts Can't Stop Taiwan, Korea Currency Weakness
Taiwan's currency has depreciated even as Taiwan's current account has soared (to 20% in calendar 2025, with 30% expected in 26). But Taiwan is not alone -- the Korean won is also very very weak even as Samsung...
Bloomberg Overlooks Key Current Vs. Financial Account Split
An interesting article from Bloomberg -- but one that misses an important part of the real story by following the recent advice of CATO and the WSJ oped page and ignoring the classic split in the balance of payments between...
The EU's Path to Service Growth and Clean Tech
The EU can boost growth by deepening single‑market integration for high‑value services and by accelerating clean‑tech investments. While the United States pursues protectionist manufacturing policies and retreats from climate commitments, it still enjoys a large services surplus that could wane....
Yuan
Not a total surprise -- the pace of appreciation was clearly pulling in funds betting on a further rise, and the yuan is heading toward levels where the PBOC has resisted appreciation in the past ... 1/
Emerging Markets Resume Currency Interventions Amid Falling Dollar
The Dollar is falling steadily versus EM. Brazil and Mexico are allowing their currencies to rise, but China, Korea, Thailand, Taiwan and Chile are intervening to stop their currencies from rising against the US Dollar. EM currency manipulation is back... https://t.co/4z57KA153r...
Following Purge, Kyrgyz President Faces Calls to Ease up on Repressive Measures
President Sadyr Japarov orchestrated a sweeping purge in early February, sidelining security chief Kamchybek Tashiev and removing several ministers, regional mayors and parliamentary deputies. He also curbed the power of the GKNB, arresting its Bishkek head and announcing a new...
India Cuts Coal Imports, Prioritizes Security Over Climate
India prioritizes national security and economic growth above aggressive, ideologically driven climate policies seen in some European countries. India seeks to cut power sector coal imports by 30% this year, sources say https://t.co/bA7W0ywe6Y
Trump Admin Alleges 2020 Chinese Nuclear Test From Seismic Data
The Trump administration has accused China of conducting a small nuclear test in 2020. The claim is that a seismic event was detected in Western China around that time. A lot is going on here, so let's unpack it. Full Newsletter:...
From Tariffs to Trade Flows: Diversion Effects and China’s Exports to the EU
U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports have coincided with a near‑10% year‑on‑year rise in China’s exports to the EU during 2025, but the surge began before the tariff hike and has not accelerated since. A difference‑in‑differences analysis of over 3,000 product...
China Faces Capital Shortage, World's Least Crowded Trade
"If you look at the hard numbers, China is capital starved right now—it's the least crowded trade in the world." - Ed Grefenstette (EP.488) With thanks to @AlphaSenseInc, @MorningstarInc, and Ridgeline.
China Realizes Mao’s Dream, Leads Global South
"how China became the leader of the global south" will be a macro theme receiving tons of ink in coming years. Incidentally, this was always Mao's dream
DFC Reauthorization Is Here: The Good, the Bad, and the Next Steps for Connectivity
The U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) received a major re‑authorization embedded in the FY2026 NDAA, boosting its contingent liability limit to $205 billion and expanding geographic eligibility for ICT projects. The bill creates a $5 billion equity revolving fund—though unfunded—and grants new...
China's True Trade Surplus Far Larger Than Reported
China's surplus is understated after 2022, as China adjusted its BoP methodology to shade its reported surplus down -- and given China's size, its surplus is massive v the global economy (even more true using customs trade) 1/2
AI's White‑Collar Disruption Inevitable, Timing Only Question
When industrial companies were rewarded by the stock market for moving production to China, it was like a starting gun going off for jobs moving to China. Fade calls that AI will not be that disruptive to white collar jobs; the...
U.S., Iran Make ‘Significant Progress’ in Nuclear Talks, Mediator Says
U.S. and Iranian officials held a third indirect nuclear round in Geneva, with Omani mediator Badr al‑Busaidi reporting "significant progress" and promising technical talks in Vienna next week. Tehran floated a framework to suspend enrichment for three to five years...
U.S. Military Buildup Casts Shadow Over Iran Talks
The United States and Iran held a third round of indirect nuclear talks in Geneva, with Omani mediation reporting significant progress and technical discussions slated for Vienna next week. Simultaneously, Washington has launched its largest Middle East military buildup since...
How China Is Betting Cheap AI Will Get the World Hooked on Its Tech
China is accelerating a strategy to flood the market with low‑cost AI tools, aiming to make its platforms indispensable worldwide. ByteDance’s Seedance 2.0, a text‑to‑video generator, exemplifies this push, while Chinese labs have been accused of harvesting OpenAI‑Claude responses through...
To Deliver Speed to Exporters Customs Rules Must Be Recast: Revenue Secretary Arvind Shrivastava
Revenue Secretary Arvind Shrivastava urged a fundamental recasting of India’s customs rules to deliver speed and certainty for exporters. He highlighted that expanding trade volumes, deeper global value‑chain integration, and a booming digital commerce ecosystem demand more efficient, transparent procedures....
New Income Tax Regime: Monthly TDS Returns, HRA Tax Rule Recast on Wish List
The Indian government is preparing to shift Tax Deducted at Source (TDS) filing from a quarterly to a monthly cadence as part of the new income‑tax regime slated for April 1. A parallel proposal seeks to overhaul house‑rent allowance (HRA) exemptions,...