Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
CDSCO Eases Drug Testing Approvals, New Fast-Track System From June 1, 2026
The Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO) will issue No Objection Certificates (NOC) for drug‑sample testing immediately upon receipt of applications, eliminating the prior detailed specification review. Companies can begin laboratory testing at designated Indian Pharmacopoeia Commission and other central labs right after filing. Applicants must submit finalized regulatory specifications based on prevailing pharmacopoeia standards and a product‑specific Quality Management System. Revised specifications will require a fresh NOC for re‑testing, with the fast‑track system taking effect on June 1 2026.
Nuanced Take: BoP Deficit Matters,
I actually don't think Mark and I are that far apart (tho I wouldn't start by arguing that a BoP deficit is meaningless, as I certainly find value in some cuts of the balance of payments + get annoyed when...
Dar Ports Become Bargaining Chip Against Mombasa for EA Traders
South Sudan is redirecting most of its import‑export cargo from Kenya’s congested Mombasa port to Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam and Tanga terminals after a bilateral agreement. The shift follows persistent delays, a $5,000 security levy per container, and higher handling...
Kenya, Uganda in Race to Change Sacco Rules as Losses Hit Members
Kenya and Uganda are overhauling Sacco regulations after a series of collapses and fraud that have eroded member confidence. In Kenya, the Kuscco scandal exposed a $103 million loss, prompting a committee to recommend raising the minimum membership to 100 and...
Tactical Agreement Proving Elusive for Central Asian States Grappling with Water Deficit
Central Asian states recognize an urgent water shortage as they pursue water‑intensive projects like nuclear plants, data centers and expanded mining. Upstream nations Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan control most supplies, while downstream Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan depend on irrigation, creating a...
Russian Religious Networks and Armenia’s Church-State Confrontation
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has intensified a clash with senior Armenian Apostolic Church leaders, accusing them of serving Russian intelligence and undermining sovereignty. The dispute highlights Moscow’s use of religious networks as soft‑power tools across the post‑Soviet space, especially...
The Emerging US Influence Threat to British Democracy
The United States’ 2025 National Security Strategy signals a new soft‑power push, funding MAGA‑aligned think tanks in the UK and Europe while tech oligarchs pour record sums into political campaigns. By the end of 2025, US‑backed donors contributed $429 million to...
Geopolitics in the Evaluation of International Scientific Collaboration
Recent randomized surveys of US policymakers and scientists reveal a pronounced “China penalty” in grant evaluations. When the only variable changed is the collaborator’s nationality, support for US‑China proposals drops sharply compared with identical US‑Germany proposals, with unconditional approval falling...
Thai AirAsia Pins Growth Hopes on China, Long-Haul Markets
Thai AirAsia is targeting 6‑9% year‑on‑year revenue growth in 2026, driven by an expected 23.5 million passengers and an 85% load factor. The carrier will add five Airbus A320s to launch new China‑Chiang Mai services and expand fifth‑freedom routes. It is also...
Steve Madden Won’t Give Profit Guidance as Planned Due to Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
Steve Madden announced it will not issue profit guidance for 2026 after the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated President Trump’s emergency‑powers tariffs. The ruling introduced significant uncertainty around trade costs, prompting CEO Edward Rosenfeld to postpone the company’s full financial forecast....
Modi’s Israel Visit Underscores Deep Ties
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi began a two‑day state visit to Israel, meeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, addressing the Knesset and touring Yad Vashem. The trip underscores a decade‑long transformation of India‑Israel relations into a deep strategic partnership, with Israel now...
Why the Arctic Matters to the United States
The Arctic is emerging as a strategic frontier for energy, trade and security, as melting ice unlocks vast hydrocarbon and critical‑mineral deposits and shortens shipping lanes. Russia controls more than half the Arctic coastline and is modernizing its military presence,...
Sri Lanka Is Now India’s Best – and Maybe Last – Friend in South Asia
India has re‑asserted Sri Lanka as its most dependable South Asian partner through swift humanitarian aid after Cyclone Ditwah and a $4 billion financial lifeline during the 2022 debt crisis. Operation Sagar Bandhu delivered $450 million in disaster relief without adding to Colombo’s debt burden, while...
Decoding Congress's 1975 Balance‑of‑Payments Language
This is a thread that only Adam Tooze, a few international economist and a couple of very well paid trade lawyers are likely to enjoy … The basic question is what did Congress mean back in 1975 when they wrote about...
Saskatchewan Premier Heads to India for Trade Talks
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe is leading a week‑long trade mission to India, concentrating on agriculture, potash and uranium. The trip coincides with the Raisina Dialogue and runs alongside Prime Minister Mark Carney’s meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Moe aims...
China’s Long‑Term Naval Strategy Redefines Global Power
China’s strategy isn’t short term. It’s structural. Every dominant power in history controlled the seas. Trade routes determine power. Naval dominance determines the future. The Pacific is only the beginning. Understanding this shift is critical to understanding what comes next. Link in bio to learn more. #China...
The US and Mexico Need Stronger Financial Cooperation to Disrupt Illicit Financial Flows
The United States and Mexico have launched a new financial‑intelligence partnership to curb the money that fuels drug cartels, highlighted by the recent killing of Jalisco New Generation leader El Mencho. Mexico’s Financial Intelligence Unit and banking regulator have shifted toward...
The U.S. Military Must Save Itself Before Saving Others
Jennifer Kavanaugh revisits her 2023 argument that U.S. military aid creates a trade‑off between Israel and Taiwan, noting the calculus has shifted. She now warns that the United States’ own depleted air‑defense munitions and other materiel are the primary constraint,...
Can Project Vault Fortify the US Industrial Base Against Mineral Chokepoints?
In February 2026 the U.S. Air Force faced F‑35 radar delays because gallium supplies were blocked by China, prompting the launch of Project Vault, a $12 billion strategic critical‑mineral reserve backed by the Export‑Import Bank and private investors. Unlike the historic...
Why Venture Capital Is Moving Into African Solar Microgrids
Venture capital in Africa is pivoting from fintech to solar microgrid projects as investors chase more predictable, asset‑backed returns. After a fintech boom between 2016‑2021, market saturation, rising customer‑acquisition costs and tighter regulation have eroded margins. Solar microgrids, backed by...
CARICOM, Cuba and the U.S.
At the CARICOM summit in St. Kitts and Nevis, leaders denounced U.S. interventions, highlighting a de‑facto oil blockade on Cuba and pressure on the island’s medical‑mission exports. Prime Minister Terrance Drew described severe shortages of food, water and electricity, while...
Contesting Self-Governance in the South Pacific
New Zealand’s foreign minister announced a NZ $30 million aid suspension to the Cook Islands after the Pacific nation failed to consult Wellington on a deep‑sea mining partnership with China. The dispute centers on the interpretation of the Cook Islands’ free‑association status...
EM Earnings Surge 31% YoY, Outpacing US and Commodities
One way to visualize the global earnings convergence is by showing earnings estimates for the different regions on a log scale. All estimates are rising but EM estimates are rising the fastest. Shown another way, EM estimates are now rising at...
Ukrainian Attacks Thrive as Russian Forces Fragment
The Ukrainians remain outnumbered. However, since Russian units are scattered, isolated, and unable to communicate, they are left vulnerable. So, organized Ukrainian offensives are finding success…for now. #ukrainewar #starlink #geopolitics https://t.co/C4sJyTga9A
How Timor-Leste Uses Tourism to Cement Its ASEAN Role
Timor‑Leste is leveraging its recent ASEAN membership to accelerate a sustainable tourism strategy that showcases its pristine marine and mountainous assets. By joining ASEAN, the nation gains access to regional marketing channels and co‑branding opportunities, allowing it to present itself...
Germany Urges China to Let RMB Appreciate, Reversing Stance
Germany joining the chorus call for China to allow the RMB to rise -- a big change from 15 years ago, when Germany didn't think China's currency management was its problem https://t.co/1J5Z0lrxma
EM Currencies Surge, Yet Turkish Lira Slides Amid High Carry
Most EM currencies are managing to rally strongly against the Dollar so far in 2026. Turkish Lira is falling and the worst performer. This despite annual carry of over 30%. The fact that Lira is still falling is a sign...
JPMorgan, BofA Favor Venezuela Bonds With More Unpaid Interest
JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America are urging clients to buy Venezuelan global bonds that carry large amounts of unpaid interest, known as accrued coupons. The banks argue that these distressed securities could deliver outsized returns if Venezuela...
Rial Depreciates as US Threats Loom Over Iran
FYI: as we wait to see if the Trump Administration will move forward with direct attacks on Iran, this is US Dollar - Iranian Rial exchange rate. The reversion to a float since the beginning of the year does not...
Dollar Slides vs EM, Brazil's Real Hits Two-Year High
The Dollar is tumbling. Not against the G10, where it's basically stable, but against EM, where it's making new lows almost every day. One of the main beneficiaries of all this is the Brazilian Real, which is the strongest versus...
Goal Is to Remove Fear of ‘Tariff Wall’, but Can’t Rush: Nirmala Sitharaman
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the 2026‑27 budget will lower tariffs only after a detailed sector‑by‑sector review of protection duration and domestic capacity. She emphasized removing the fear of a “tariff wall” while avoiding rushed cuts that could harm...
South Sudan Lacks Reliable Money Data, Undermining Accountability
South Sudan’s government hasn’t produced RELIABLE MONEY SUPPLY DATA since October 2024. SOUTH SUDAN = NO RELIABLE DATA = NO ACCOUNTABILITY. https://t.co/UAqAIjbHdP
Tech Exports Drive 5% GDP, 7% Jobs in India
According to the World Bank, computer & information services exports account for nearly 5% of India’s GDP and generate roughly 7% of India’s employment. NO WONDER PM MODI IS SO POPULAR. https://t.co/aWyUaxVmlL
Trump's State of the Union Included Almost 1,200 Words About His LatAm Policies
Trump’s 2026 State of the Union devoted nearly 1,200 words to Latin American policy, far outpacing other regional references. The speech stressed new trade tariffs, immigration reforms, and security cooperation, echoing recent moves such as Honduras expelling Cuban doctors and...
China’s 5-Year Plan Boosts Energy Security, Regional Self‑Reliance
How China’s 5-year energy plan could change the way it powers its economy Beijing will prioritise energy security through large-scale projects and greater regional self-reliance, as risks mount at home and overseas https://t.co/HwoETxozqe via @scmpnews
Zambia to Build ‘Rainy Day’ Fund While Metals Surge
Zambia will establish a “rainy day” stabilisation fund to lock away surplus copper revenues as production hits record levels and prices hover near historic highs. The Treasury plans to finalise the fund’s framework this year before beginning deposits, using the...
The Argentina Deal Is the Template of How Deals in the New World Order Will Work
On February 5, the United States and Argentina signed a bilateral agreement that goes beyond tariff cuts to align trade, investment, and national‑security priorities in critical minerals and energy. The pact obliges Argentina to facilitate U.S. investment across the entire...
Mombasa Port Congestion Disrupts Coffee Exports
Severe congestion at Kenya's Port of Mombasa is disrupting East Africa's coffee trade, with major exporter Sucafina warning of missed shipments and rising costs. Truck queues, customs bottlenecks, and limited empty‑container depots have left vessels idle and cargo handovers delayed....
South Africa to Earmark R1.58 Trillion Towards Social Services
South Africa’s 2024 budget earmarks R2.67 trillion in total spending, with R1.58 trillion directed to social services. The largest allocations go to education (R527.2 billion), social development (R446.6 billion), health (R310.4 billion) and economic development (R283.9 billion). Peace and security receives R274.6 billion, funding police, defence and...
S&P Stagnates as Global, Small‑Cap, Value Stocks Surge
WSJ: While the S&P 500 has wrenched up and down but gone pretty much nowhere this year, international, emerging-market, small stocks and value stocks have taken off. https://t.co/eRPZ3CVqAy
Waaree Energies, Premier Energies Slip After US Announces 126% Duty on Solar Imports, Firms See No Material Impact
The U.S. announced a preliminary 126% counter‑vailing duty on certain solar imports from India, sending Waaree Energies and Premier Energies shares sharply lower—Waaree down 10% and Premier down 6%. Both companies said they have diversified supply chains and ongoing US...
Japanese Chemical Firms Pivot From China to India
Japanese chemical giants such as Mitsui Chemicals and Sumitomo Chemical are scaling back their China operations and redirecting capital to India. Investment in China dropped 46% year‑over‑year in 2024, while the number of Japanese sites in India rose to 5,205,...
China’s Biopharma Advance Draws Financial Investment
Chinese biotech firms are moving beyond licensing deals as capital markets open, highlighted by a 64% rise in the Hang Seng Biotech Index in 2025. Reforms to listing rules since 2018 have unlocked public financing, enabling a record $138 billion in...
Yen Rebounds, Forint Climbs, Yuan Rallies Onward
JPY reversing weaker HUF gaining (on negative polls for Orban) CNH continues to rally consistently
Indonesian-Chinese Shift Assets to Singapore, I’d Follow
You can tell that Indonesian-Chinese have moved assets to Singapore the past year. I would have done the same.
Ethiopia Is Sliding Fast Toward Major War
In this episode of Global Dispatches, host Mark Leon Goldberg talks with Ethiopian‑Canadian journalist Zacharias Zelalem about Ethiopia’s rapid slide toward a new, potentially regional war. Zelalem outlines recent flashpoints: mass troop deployments northward, the Ethiopian government’s revocation of Tigray’s...
Turkey's Reserve Losses Signal Strong Depreciation Pressure
Turkey had sustained reserve losses towards the end of last year (blue), even though Lira was falling and USD was weak. That's a sign that depreciation pressure is substantial, a reflection of the large current account deficit. Same old story...
Asia Daily: February 25, 2026
China signaled it will weigh counter‑measures after the United States imposed a temporary 15% tariff on all imports, while urging Washington to cancel unilateral duties and resume frank trade talks. A new IISS study warned that ongoing anti‑corruption purges have...
Starlink Blackout Isolates Russian Troops, Fuels Ukrainian Gains
Starlink cut service to Russian forces along the front line, leaving these troops largely isolated. Ukraine has taken advantage of the situation by launching localized offensives and reclaiming a nice chunk of land. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/Q0eHcVCvu2 #ukrainewar #geopolitics
Delhi-Katra Expressway Construction on Track, Will Be Completed by March 2027: NHAI
The National Expressway 5, linking Delhi, Amritsar and Katra, is slated for completion by March 2027 after a slowdown caused by Operation Sindoor and severe flooding. Construction, which began in April 2021, has regained momentum using segmental bridge technology and an elevated 21.5‑km corridor....