Today's Currencies Pulse
Rupee projected to slip to ₹98‑99 as India’s fiscal deficit widens to 5%
BofA Securities analyst Rahul Bajoria expects the rupee to fall to around ₹98‑99 within the next year. He also projects the FY27 fiscal deficit to expand to 5% of GDP, above the government’s 4.3% target, driven by higher fertilizer subsidies, an excise‑duty cut on fuel and weaker tax collections adding roughly 150 basis points.
US Dollar Index Surges Above 99 as Safe‑Haven Demand Spikes Amid Iran Tensions
The US Dollar Index rose to 99.10 during Asian trading on Tuesday, driven by renewed safe‑haven buying after U.S. strikes in southern Iran and rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Traders now price a 41% chance of a 25‑basis‑point increase by year‑end, while markets await the next PCE inflation report.
TD Securities Keeps Bearish USD Outlook Through 2026 Amid Strong US Data
TD Securities reiterated its bearish thesis on the U.S. dollar through 2026, arguing that structural factors will cap upside despite recent robust U.S. economic data. The firm warns that a stalled Fed rate‑hiking cycle and stronger growth outside the United...
ECB Signals June Rate Hike as Inflation Expectations Rise, Euro Climbs
Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau, ECB executive board member Isabel Schnabel, chief economist Philip Lane and Dutch central‑bank chief Olaf Sleijpen all indicated a likely 25‑bp rate increase at the June 11 meeting. Their comments lifted the euro...
Rupee Falls 8 Paise to 95.78 Against US Dollar in Early Trade
The Indian rupee weakened to 95.78 per U.S. dollar, slipping 8 paise in early trade as Brent crude hovered around $98 a barrel. The move was spurred by renewed U.S. strikes on Iran, which revived safe‑haven demand for the dollar. Foreign...
Leading Index Enters the Recesssion Zone
Australia’s Westpac‑Melbourne Institute Leading Index slipped to a six‑month annualised growth rate of -0.17% in April, worsening from -0.11% in March. The index, which forecasts economic activity three to nine months ahead, now sits in recession territory. The decline underscores...
USDJPY Hits Record Low Volatility Amid Intervention Risks
$USDJPY is suspiciously quiet. The 10-day (2-week) realized volatility level is the lowest since Jan 2022. The historical range of the past week (5-day) is the smallest as a percentage of spot since Oct 2023. Too quiet at these highs...
Here's Why Stock Trading May Be Much More Profitable than Forex Trading.
The speaker argues stock trading can be more profitable than forex because equities are less efficient and therefore produce larger, more frequent volatile moves that traders can exploit; forex’s deep liquidity and tight spreads make it harder to capture outsized...
How to Set a Trailing Stop on the OANDA App
The video is a step-by-step tutorial showing how to set a trailing stop on an open trade using the OANDA mobile app. The presenter demonstrates selecting an open GBP/USD sell position, tapping the modify button, and choosing a trailing stop...
Why China Keeps Selling U.S. Treasuries | China Decode
The episode of China Decode examined the converging strategic partnership between Russia and China, focusing on the stalled Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, and China’s recent sell‑off of U.S. Treasury securities against the backdrop of the Middle‑East energy crisis. Hosts highlighted...
The GBPUSD Sellers Are Making a Play with the Price Back Below the 100 Day MA
The GBP/USD pair slipped back below its 100‑day moving average, settling at 1.34748 after briefly breaching the level. Sellers now target the 100‑hour moving average at 1.34522 and the nearby swing low around 1.3446, while a break of the 200‑hour...
USDCHF Extends Higher and Tests 100/200 Hour MA
The USD/CHF pair surged to a new session high, testing the converging 100‑hour (0.7853) and 200‑hour (0.7857) moving averages before easing back to around 0.7850. Buyers also pushed the pair back above its 100‑day moving average at 0.7838, a level...
Indian Rupee Slides to 95.43 per Dollar as Oil Prices Surge
The Indian rupee opened at 95.43 per U.S. dollar, down 17 paise, as month‑end dollar buying and a rise in Brent crude to $97.91 a barrel pressured the currency. Traders cite geopolitical tension over Iran and RBI's recent dollar‑selling as...
ECB Signals No Need to Correct Market Speculation of June Rate Hike
The European Central Bank’s chief economist, Philip Lane, told Nikkei that the market does not need extra guidance on speculation surrounding a possible June rate hike. He reaffirmed the ECB’s trajectory toward tighter policy and hinted at a further upward...
NZD Slides on US‑Iran Tensions Ahead of RBNZ Rate Decision
The New Zealand dollar weakened sharply in Asian trading after the United States struck Iranian missile sites, reviving geopolitical risk. Traders also braced for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy decision, keeping the NZD under pressure.
Iranian Rial Gains 11% in Three Weeks, Holds Amid War
In the past 3 weeks, the Iranian rial has appreciated 11.2% vs. the USD. It has now only depreciated 0.84% vs. the USD since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran. https://t.co/whBvoEPxK0
RBI Signals Readiness to Intervene as Rupee Slides 6% and Seen Undervalued
Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra told the Mint newspaper that the rupee may be undervalued after a 6% slide since the West Asia conflict began. He pledged that the RBI will do “whatever is required” to curb excessive...
U.S. Treasury Yields Top 4.5% as Market Pushes Back on Trump’s Spending Plans
U.S. Treasury yields on the benchmark 10-year note climbed above 4.5%, prompting warnings from market strategists and raising anxiety in the White House about higher borrowing costs for mortgages, credit cards and business loans. The surge comes as President Trump...
US Dollar Holds Near Six‑Week Highs as Inflation Fears and Fed Hints Spur Market Tension
The U.S. dollar stayed close to a six‑week high on Friday, with the Dollar Index edging to 99.24. Fed officials hinted at a possible rate increase while consumer sentiment plunged to a record low, keeping markets on edge about future...