Know What's Happening in Currencies
Know What's Happening in Currencies
ECB faces binary decision on rate hike or hold at upcoming meeting
ECB President Olaf Sleijpen said the next Governing Council meeting will focus on whether to raise interest rates further or keep them unchanged, with the discussion slated for Frankfurt in a few weeks as the board reviews fresh inflation data.
The Federal Reserve voted 11‑1 to keep its benchmark rate at 3.5%‑3.75% while the Iran‑Israel conflict sent oil prices soaring. The U.S. dollar index jumped to around 100, prompting sharp moves in the euro, yen and other major currencies.
Risk aversion deepened as the Fed highlighted heightened inflation risks while downplaying growth concerns. The central bank left rates unchanged but lifted its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 2.7%, signalling a longer‑lasting price pressure outlook. Simultaneously, Iran’s attacks on key...
Takeaways from the March Fed meeting: • The era of 'easy' cuts could be over. Last year's were a recalibration; the next ones have to be earned with better inflation data or downside risks being realized. • The dots weren't as hawkish...
$USD surged yesterday during the Fed's press conference. Follow-through buying has been limited today. BOJ, SNB, & Riksbank stood pat. BOE and ECB next but will also hold steady. War rages, and Brent made new highs,...
New Zealand’s fourth‑quarter GDP expanded only 0.2% quarter‑on‑quarter, missing the 0.4% consensus, while annual growth held at 1.3% year‑on‑year, below the 1.7% forecast. Both production‑based (0.2% q/q) and expenditure‑based (0.1% q/q) measures signalled a sharp slowdown in domestic demand. The weaker...
Traders shift BOE, ECB rates outlook just hours before policy decisions https://t.co/HA0mTq7RsS via @greg_ritchie @alicegledhill1 https://t.co/CmyGExhjII
SNB restates increased resolve on the franc as it holds its rate at zero https://t.co/SZ7RmvXJDF via @bbenrath https://t.co/djvkw40yjQ
The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged at 3.50‑3.75% and, via the latest dot‑plot, signaled only a single 25‑basis‑point cut for 2026 and another in 2027. The announcement sent the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 down between 1.3% and...
🇨🇭 Stronger verbal intervention language from the SNB: "the SNB's willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased". https://t.co/yuDHGc7oUG https://t.co/wcrzVudyN7
The Eurozone’s inflation comes in at 1.9%/yr. That's below its 2% target. The ECB’s money supply is only growing at 3.4%/yr. That's BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 6%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting ECB’s 2%/yr target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY...
The Bank of Canada left its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%, citing headline inflation of 1.8% and a softening core CPI. Governor Tiff Macklem repeatedly emphasized uncertainty, flagging dual‑shock risks from higher oil prices and the Iran conflict alongside volatile...
Really? Name one start-up think tank that analyzes the latest twist and turns in China's fx policy with any depth. I would humbly submit that this blog is at the analytical frontier, ahead of what most of...
The dollar index rose 0.51% after U.S. February producer prices outperformed forecasts, with final‑demand PPI up 0.7% month‑over‑month and 3.4% year‑over‑year and core PPI climbing 3.9% YoY—the strongest gain in 13 months. The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged...
Global investors are rapidly shifting capital into emerging markets as a weaker U.S. dollar and a push for diversification away from the United States drive demand. Over the past twelve months the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has surged 47%, far...
The episode reviews the market fallout from Middle East oil facility attacks, the Federal Reserve’s March rate decision, and upcoming policy moves by the Bank of Japan and ECB. ANZ economists discuss how the oil shock exposes Asia’s heavy reliance...
Precision beats prediction. This is how smart money enters the market clean structure, liquidity sweep, and a perfect FVG entry. Stop chasing trades. Start waiting for confirmation. Discipline + Strategy = Consistency. If you understand this setup, you’re already ahead of 90% traders. #forex #trading...
That was a hawkish presser. JP discounted the latest NFP print and revisions. Spent time discussing rate hikes even if hypothetical. Highlighted anchored inflation expectation as a prerequisite for further rate cuts.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is overhauling its liquidity management framework after a consultation on recent market changes. It will introduce weekly full‑allotment open‑market operations (OMO) to inject liquidity at a fixed spread to the official cash rate,...
This Wasn't a Neutral FED Meeting. Here's the Truth. The Fed left rates unchanged. Everyone expected that. But the reaction told a completely different story. Stocks🔻dropped. Gold🔻dropped. Dollar climbed ⬆️ This was not a boring meeting. Not even close $SPY $GLD $DXY https://t.co/28xpHI13Ju
In my 20+ years watching markets, this is one of the best central bank press conferences I've ever seen. Its right up there with Draghi and Bernanke's greatest hits. Chair Powell is in rare form.
Markets are navigating heightened uncertainty as the Middle East conflict eases oil flow, pushing WTI back above $94, while the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada are set to keep policy unchanged. The Fed’s updated dot‑plot still signals a single...
Powell embraces the SEP to observe that there was "a meaningful amount of movement" toward fewer cuts and then later leaves the SEP by the side of the road. If there was ever going to be a time to skip...
Last year markets sold off on less dovish than expected Fed. Today they find relief on less hawkish than expected.
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the March 2026 meeting. The decision follows a February jobs report that revealed a loss of roughly 100,000 positions and a sharp rise in oil...
#FOMC Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) -Upward revision to Growth -Unchanged on Unemployment -Upward revision on Inflation 2.7% on headline & core PCE https://t.co/knSXUzsR5d
Insta-read #FOMC: No change in rates No change in '26 or '27 dots 1x dissent (slight hawkish) "Uncertain implications" of Iran Two-sided risk language
Hedge funds such as Fivestar Asset Management are reshaping their Japanese bond and currency positions ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting, expecting Governor Kazuo Ueda to hint at a hawkish stance due to inflation pressures from the Iran...
The Fed held rates steady. There was one dissent. The median rate “dot” was unchanged, as was the 12-7 split on cuts vs. no cuts. The median core PCE inflation forecast revised to 2.7% from 2.5%. The median long-run rate “dot”...
FOMC rate decision incoming. Despite the President's interests, the rate decision itself is fully expected to end in no change. That puts the full interest on the updated forecasts of the SEP and any errant remarks Powell makes in his second to...
The Bank of England will announce its March 19 interest‑rate decision, weighing whether to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75% or trim it by 25 basis points to 3.50%. A narrow 5‑4 vote in February highlighted deep divisions within the...
Today is very dangerous for Powell. If he sounds hawkish, markets might tumble given what's going on in the Persian Gulf. Next thing you know, Trump could be attacking the Fed like in Dec '18. Back then, the Fed capitulated...
Inflation Just EXPLODED 🔥 Does the Fed Have a Crisis on its Hands? Stocks crashed. Gold collapsed. Dollar soared Fed meets TODAY - and this one number could change everything for 2026👇 Follow for updates $SPY $QQQ $DIA $GLD $DXY $USDJPY $ES...
The latest Elliott Wave update examines USD/JPY’s recent dip, assessing whether it presents a buying opportunity before the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Analysts note that the pair is in a corrective wave that could signal the start of...
The 10-year Treasury yield (blue) has fallen, pulled down by expectations of Fed easing and a lower 2-year yield (black). But that's a deceptive picture. 10y10y forward yield is near record highs (red). Markets price big risk premia in long-term...
Hope Lifts Risk Appetites Ahead of the Bank of Canada and FOMC Meetings: There are three main talking points today. The first is the war. While it continues to rage, more oil is reportedly moving through the Strait of Hormuz...
Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to keep its policy rate unchanged at the March 2024 meeting, with only modest tweaks to the post‑meeting statement. The bank says the Fed will downplay volatile payroll data and instead spotlight rising geopolitical...
The visible forward book of China, Inc (state banks plus PBOC) -- or at least changes in the book after 2010 FX settlement data via Bloomberg 1/ https://t.co/IgUc2aEtHT
On Tuesday in European trading, the British pound (GBP) fell 0.27% to around $1.3280, underperforming against major currencies except the NZD. The slide reflects market uncertainty ahead of the Bank of England’s rate decision on Thursday and the Federal Reserve’s...
On March 17, 2026, the offshore Chinese yuan strengthened to about 6.884 per U.S. dollar, while the onshore central parity rate moved to 6.8961. The rally came as China posted accelerated factory output and retail sales, even as President Trump...
On March 18, 2026, the Indian rupee slipped 14 paise to 92.42 against the U.S. dollar in early trade, marking a historic low near the 92.40 level. The depreciation was attributed to a surge in crude oil prices and significant...
On Tuesday in Asian trading, the yen weakened to about ¥159.40 per US dollar, a move driven by a stronger dollar and rising oil‑linked inflation fears. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama signaled the government is ready to act, while BoJ Governor...
On March 17, 2024, the U.S. dollar slipped 0.40% against the Swiss franc and 0.31% on the dollar index after reaching a 10‑month high of 100.54. The decline came as traders repositioned ahead of policy announcements from the Federal Reserve,...
A longstanding taboo around Fed governors dissenting against the chair has been broken. Recent fractures have fallen along political lines. On what that means for the institution—and for the next chair. https://t.co/7S1YacOpoW
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8909 for the current session, modestly above the 6.8798 market estimate. The central bank maintains the yuan’s daily fluctuation band at plus or minus 2% around this midpoint....
My latest on tomorrow FED rate decision and what to expect for stocks and the US dollar
India's banking system liquidity surplus shrank to ₹75,483 crore after a ₹2 lakh crore advance‑tax outflow, pushing overnight money‑market rates to 5.31 %. The RBI responded with a 7‑day variable‑rate repo, but attracted only ₹48,014 crore in bids. Simultaneously, the central bank sold over $15 billion...
On March 17 the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points, marking its second straight increase and a sharp reversal from the gradual easing path pursued throughout 2025. The hikes respond to inflation running above...
Tomorrow will be the most imporant FOMC meeting of our lives Until the next one
Smart Money doesn’t chase the market — it waits for liquidity. Price tapped into the Fair Value Gap after grabbing liquidity and then delivered a clean bearish move. This is the power of ICT & Smart Money Concepts: understanding where institutions...
US Dollar Index $DXY $USD $UUP now 1% off the week's high.. back-to-back bearish sessions @stockcharts https://t.co/hy3tIXMCbo
