Today's Currencies Pulse
Bank of England faces renewed uncertainty ahead of rate decision
The Bank of England heads into its next policy meeting after the European Central Bank became the first G7 central bank to raise rates, lifting its key rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.25%. UK policymakers must balance a slowing economy, a weak labour market and lingering inflation risks, with energy prices rising amid Middle‑East tensions.
Indian Rupee Slides to 94.47 as Forex Reserves Drop $7.8 Bn
The Indian rupee closed at 94.47 per U.S. dollar, its weakest level in months, as the Reserve Bank of India’s foreign‑exchange reserves fell $7.8 bn to $690.7 bn in the week to May 1. The twin setbacks reflect soaring crude‑oil prices and heightened Middle‑East tensions that are straining India’s external balances.
Smart Money Takes Liquidity, Guessing Loses Profits
No control = no profits. Liquidity was taken. Structure shifted. Smart money executed. Are you still guessing entries? #ForexReels #SmartMoneyTrading #ICTSetup #TradingReels #reels
Reserve Currency Shift Drops DJIA 45% Amid 10× Debt Rise
Agree, on both the impact of going broke in the reserve currency & "denominator blindness": Since the March 1972 date of that article, DJIA (which benefits from survivorship bias) is down 45% in terms of the prior world reserve currency (gold,...
Canadian Dollar Falls 0.2% as Weak Jobs Data Cuts BoC Rate‑Hike Odds
The loonie weakened to 1.3690 per U.S. dollar, the sole G10 currency to lose ground, after Canada reported a surprise loss of 17,700 jobs in April and a rise in unemployment to 6.9%. The data trimmed market expectations for Bank...
Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights (and Week in Review) 11-15th May 2026:
The week ahead features a suite of pivotal macro releases, starting with China’s April trade data that is expected to show a $82.4 bn surplus, far above the prior $51.1 bn. Inflation readings are in focus as China’s CPI is projected at...
UK Yields Exceed Italy, Not a Weakness, ECB Cap Effect
The UK's long-term gov't bond yields (lhs) are now far above those of Italy (rhs). This doesn't mean the UK is in worse shape. It's just a reflection of past ECB actions to aggressively cap Italian yields. I talked about...
When Money Is a Fiction
In this episode of the Timeless Investor Show, Ari van Gemmeren examines Turkey’s ongoing currency collapse, using the price jump of a simple street bread (simmet) to illustrate how the Turkish lira has lost about 92% of its value against...
Japan Deploys $35 Billion to Defend Yen During Golden Week, Holds Back After Holiday
Japan’s Ministry of Finance intervened on April 30, spending about 5.48 trillion yen ($35 bn) to push the yen up 2% during the Golden Week holiday. Analysts say authorities refrained from further action on the first business day after the break, leaving markets...
India's Goldilocks Growth Model Tested by Oil Shock and Rising Inflation
India’s “Goldilocks” growth scenario—strong GDP, moderate inflation and stable finances—is under pressure as crude oil prices have surged about 40% and inflation expectations have been lifted to 5.1%. Analysts say markets have already priced the shock, but the outcome will...
Strong US Data Yet Dollar Declines, Signaling Regime Shift
I'm doing a live stream at 9 am (ET) this morning. I'll talk about how much the Dollar is falling and how we're seeing mounting signs of regime change, whereby strong US data see the Dollar fall. That's how it...
Brazilian Real Leads EM Gains, Set to Dip Below 4.50
The Brazilian Real is now the best-performing EM currency since the start of the war, leaving aside the Hungarian Forint, which is idiosyncratic and about Orban losing the election. The Real has a lot further to go and - unlike...
Week Ahead: Trump-Xi and US-China CPI
Investors are betting that the Middle East cease‑fire will hold, lifting risk assets as oil prices retreat. WTI slipped 7% to about $95 a barrel and Brent fell 6.6% to $101, reversing two weeks of gains. The week’s data focus...
Dollar Declines vs EM Despite No Peace Deal
It's remarkable how much the Dollar is falling versus EM (blue), even though we don't even have a peace deal yet. Dollar down is a really high-conviction trade that people are putting on already now because they know they'll get...
CPI Data and Yen Moves Dominate Upcoming Week
Week ahead highlights: US and PRC CPI, Bessent talks $JPY in Japan, and G2 summit in Beijing. After ordering Fed to check exchange rates in Jan, Bessent quiet on recent BOJ intervention. Outcome of Xi-Trump likely minimal. See...
Dollar at a 3-Year Low: 3 Exporters Quietly Printing Money
The U.S. dollar index has slipped roughly 10% since its January 2025 peak, reaching levels not seen since 2022. A combination of the Trump administration’s trade‑restructuring agenda, a record $1.2 trillion goods‑trade deficit, Fed rate cuts and robust global growth is...
Could UAE Move to De-Peg Early?
The United Arab Emirates is weighing an early de‑peg of the dirham from the U.S. dollar amid a war‑driven oil export slump and its recent exit from OPEC. Proponents argue that a flexible, potentially stronger currency would leverage the emirate’s...
Reverse Carry Trade Starts, Yen Rescue Underway
I'm right. They are preparing to save the Yen. I'm fucking right. Phase 1 of the reverse carry trade HAS begun. Like and repost if you fucking understand this.
Japan Bets on Washington and BOJ for Extra Punch in Yen Battle
Japan is counting on a hawkish turn at the Bank of Japan and an overt endorsement from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to give its yen‑buying interventions more bite. Since Governor Kazuo Ueda’s April 28 remarks, the finance ministry has...
Investors Have Worries About Trump’s Pick for Fed Chair. Should They?
President Donald Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as his next Federal Reserve chair, prompting a wave of investor anxiety about possible political meddling. Warsh told the Senate he would not act as a "human sock puppet," but markets...
Brazil Central Bank Trims FX Swap Stock as Real Nears R$4.90/USD, Santander Says
Brazil's central bank reduced its reverse currency swap inventory in a standalone auction, leveraging a real that has appreciated to around R$4.90 per dollar. Santander's foreign‑exchange desk head Roberta Guimarães says the move is aimed at shrinking the authority's market...
Goldman Delays Final Fed Cuts to Late 2026, Early 2027
“We are pushing back the final two Fed rate cuts in our forecast by one quarter to December 2026 and March 2027.” - Goldman
Bank of Ghana Reports GH¢15.6bn Loss, Unveils Recapitalisation Roadmap
The Bank of Ghana announced a GH¢15.6bn (about $1.3bn) operating loss for 2025 and a plunge in equity to GH¢93bn negative. The central bank said it remains policy‑solvent but unveiled a multi‑year recapitalisation programme with the finance ministry to rebuild...
Bank Negara Malaysia Holds Rate at 2.75% as Middle East Conflict Threatens Growth
Malaysia’s central bank kept the overnight policy rate at 2.75% for the fifth straight meeting, warning that the protracted Middle East war could feed higher commodity prices and inflation. The decision underscores how emerging‑market policymakers are balancing solid domestic fundamentals...
Consumer Sentiment Misses, Jobs Beat Estimates, Unemployment Steady
📊 Pre-Market Brief | Fri, May 8 ─────── 📅 MACRO DATA Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Act 48.2 | Est 49.7 | Prior 49.8 🔴 Average Hourly Earnings m/m: Act 0.2 | Est 0.3 | Prior 0.2 🔴 Non-Farm Employment Change: Act 115 | Est 65...
Swiss Bitcoin Reserve Campaign Set to Lapse After Failing to Gather Signatures
A Swiss citizens' initiative to amend the constitution and force the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to hold Bitcoin alongside gold and foreign‑currency assets failed, gathering only about half of the 100,000 signatures required for a referendum. The SNB has repeatedly...
Weak Dollar Boosts Bitcoin and Risk‑On Assets
Dollar Breakdown Keeps Fueling Bitcoin and Risk-On Equity Rotation Short USD. Short Treasuries. Long the Quad Shift. ⚡💵 While Tourists panic around every $SPY tick, the real Macro move remains the same: ⬇️ Dollar ⬇️ Bonds ⬆️ Bitcoin ⬆️ Risk Assets https://t.co/94qOuTSIrQ
Norway’s Central Bank Raises Rate to 4.25%, Triggering Euro‑Stock Volatility
Norges Bank unexpectedly lifted Norway’s benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% on Thursday, citing inflation pressure from the Middle‑East conflict. The surprise move sent Norwegian bond yields higher and nudged equity valuations lower across the Nordics, with...
Zimbabwe’s Gold‑Backed ZiG Currency Stumbles as Merchants Favor US Dollars
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe’s gold‑backed ZiG legal tender is hitting roadblocks as retailers and online merchants default to US dollars, despite a recent policy lift that raised transaction limits to ZiG 13,000 (≈$9.30). Consumers face higher prices, settlement delays and...
Dollar Hits Two‑Week High as Middle East Tensions Boost Safe‑Haven Demand, Treasury Yields Rise
The U.S. dollar rose to its highest level in two weeks on Thursday, while benchmark Treasury yields climbed amid heightened Middle East risk. Investors are seeking safety as the United States and Iran edge toward a limited cease‑fire, but lingering...
Kevin Warsh Is Right About Fed Reform — but His Inflation Solution Is a T...
Kevin Warsh, the Fed chair nominee, argues that a coming AI‑driven productivity boom will act as a disinflationary force and give the Federal Reserve room to cut rates. He couples this view with a broader reform agenda that includes balance‑sheet...
The Federal Reserve Is Quickly Running Out of Reasons to Cut Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve’s window for cutting rates is narrowing as recent data show a steadier labor market but persistent inflation. April’s payrolls rose by 115,000, a modest gain that eases pressure for easing, while the March CPI held at 3.3%,...
Half of Fed Forecasters Now Expect No Rate Cuts This Year
More sell-side firms and Fed watchers are removing/delaying cuts from their outlook, including a couple forecasters after the April NFP. Half now see no cuts this year (and risks are clearly tilted to this group continuing to grow given inertial...
Next Week’s Menu: May 9-15, 2026
Larry Greenberg’s weekly menu outlines a dense slate of economic releases for May 9‑15, 2026, covering U.S. indicators such as producer prices, retail sales, and industrial production, alongside key data from China, Japan, the Eurozone, and emerging markets. The calendar also notes...
Global FX: Yentervention and Other FX Policy Stories
In this episode, Arindam Sandhile and his global team dissect the current FX landscape, focusing on Japan's recent yen intervention, the limited upside for the dollar amid uncertain Fed policy, and the performance of real‑rate currencies like the Norwegian krone...
Dollar's Reserve Role Erodes as Allies Shift Amid NATO Tensions
'US dollar as reserve currency has been in long-term decline. Lists a long list of contributing factors, notably also states that if history is any guide, countries keep reserves with allies, and NATO tensions may negative impact Treasury holdings.' @B_Eichengreen...
Korea, Taiwan Post Record Surpluses Amid Currency Weakness
The surpluses of Korea and Taiwan this year will be incredible The fact that these surpluses coincide with a historically weak Korean won and continued deep weakness in the Taiwan dollar is most interesting
ECB's Nagel: ECB Will Do Whatever Necessary to Him He Energy Price Surge
ECB Deputy Governor Peter Nagel warned that the central bank is prepared to act decisively to curb a fresh surge in energy prices, which he said could reignite inflation risks across the eurozone. He emphasized that the ECB remains highly alert...
USDCAD Runs up to Key Resistance Target and Finds Willing Sellers
USDCAD rose to a session high of 1.3710 after a stronger‑than‑expected U.S. jobs report and a weaker Canadian jobs report, then reversed at a key resistance zone. The resistance cluster includes the 38.2% retracement, the 1.3709‑1.3715 swing area, and the...
Asia’s Heat Waves and Oil Shock Push Inflation to Multi‑Year Peaks
Heat waves linked to El Niño and a lingering oil price shock have driven inflation to multi‑year highs across emerging Asian economies. The Philippines and Pakistan saw consumer price inflation climb above 7% and 11% respectively, intensifying pressure on central banks...
ECB's Lagarde’s Digital Euro Warning: Why Europe Shouldn’t Just Copy the U.S. Stablecoin Model
ECB President Christine Lagarde cautioned that the $310 billion stablecoin market, dominated by U.S. dollar‑pegged tokens, poses systemic risks that could spill over into asset markets during stress. She argued Europe should not replicate the private stablecoin model but instead develop...
Israeli Shekel Pushes Foreign‑Exchange Reserves to Record $235.7 Bn
Israel’s foreign‑exchange reserves climbed to a record $235.7 bn at the end of April 2026, up $6.3 bn from March. The surge stemmed from a $7.5 bn revaluation of assets as the shekel strengthened, offset by $1.2 bn of government foreign‑exchange activity.
Powell Warns Removal Power Threatens Fed Independence
David Wilcox points out Powell, without being explicitly asked about, pointed to the governors' ability to remove regional Fed Presidents as a risk to independence in his latest press conference. @HooverInst https://t.co/J4Uy69mrei https://t.co/Q0ltpyO3sf
ECB Fears Euro Stablecoins Due to Dollar Deficit
In today's Daily Peg, I allege that the ECB's real paranoia about euro-denominated stablecoins stems from a fundamental and structural dollar deficit across the eurosystem. https://t.co/2oIVNDBppn
Fed Data Suggest Japan Sold U.S. Debt Amid Intervention
The Federal Reserve reported a $8.7 billion drop in its custody of marketable U.S. Treasuries, bringing the total to $2.73 trillion for the week ending May 6. The decline coincides with Japan’s Ministry of Finance spending roughly $55 billion to support the yen, suggesting...
Last Bank of Mexico Interest Rate Cut
The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) confirmed a 25‑basis‑point cut on May 7, bringing the overnight interbank rate to 6.5 %. The move concludes a tightening cycle that began in March 2024 after the policy rate peaked at 11.25 % in early 2024. Inflation has...
Kevin Warsh Struggles to Push Rate Cuts At
It’s getting harder for Kevin Warsh to come into the Fed and push for rate cuts, if he even still wants them…
India Forex Reserves Drop $7.8 Bn; Rupee Weakens to 94.47 Against the Dollar
India’s foreign exchange reserves fell $7.8 billion in the week to May 1, bringing the total down to $690.7 billion, the second consecutive weekly decline. The drop was driven by a $5.0 billion reduction in gold holdings and a $2.8 billion fall in foreign currency...
April Jobs Data Frees Fed to Focus on Inflation
The April jobs report allows the Fed to sweat over inflation (as opposed to inflation *and* jobs) https://t.co/6iYFTTwKfI
Ruble Set to Remain Strong as Export Revenues Bolster Currency, Central Bank Says
The Bank of Russia warned that a surge in export earnings will keep the ruble strong in the coming months. It linked the currency's resilience to a 5.9% inflation rate in Q1 2026 and a path toward a 4% target...
Indonesia Defends Economy as Rupiah Hits Record Low, Tightens Dollar Rules
Indonesia's central bank announced tighter controls on dollar purchases as the rupiah fell below 17,400 per USD, while Governor Perry Warjiyo insisted the economy is healthy, citing 5.61% Q1 growth. The measures aim to limit further currency weakness amid global...