Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
Moody's Holds Ghana Rating at Caa1, Outlook Turns Positive
Moody's Investors Service maintained Ghana's sovereign rating at Caa1 while revising the outlook from stable to positive. The agency highlighted lower domestic financing costs but warned that exchange‑rate swings and commodity‑price volatility remain key risks for the cedi and debt sustainability.
Charting the Global Economy: War Fuels Inflation, Saps Sentiment
The Iran war has triggered a sharp surge in global fuel prices, pushing U.S. gasoline costs up 21% and sparking the steepest inflation rise in nearly four years. Consumer confidence in the United States and Canada has slumped to record...
Dollar Reversal Signals Enduring Weak‑dollar Era
The magnitude of the reversal in the dollar may be the most important move we saw this week. Welcome to a weaker-dollar world. Upside moves are likely to be limited and short-lived, with a persistent pull back to the downside like a...
Warsh and the Fed's Balance Sheet
Kevin Warsh, a Fed chair hopeful, argues that shrinking the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet will free up stimulus that can be redirected into lower fed‑funds rates. The piece challenges that view, noting that reserve balances—about $3 trillion, roughly 9% of U.S....
India’s Forex Reserves Jump $9 Bn to $697 Bn, Shielding Economy Amid US‑Iran Tensions
The Reserve Bank of India reported a $9.06 billion rise in foreign‑exchange reserves to $697.12 billion for the week ended April 3, 2026. The surge, driven by a $7.22 billion jump in gold holdings and a $1.78 billion increase in foreign‑currency assets, reinforces a buffer...
Elliott Wave Analysis of USDCAD – April 13th, 2026
The USDCAD pair slipped more than 100 pips during the first full trading week of April, prompting a fresh Elliott Wave assessment. Analysts debate whether the move represents a short‑term buying dip or the onset of a larger bearish impulse....
Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY – April 13th, 2026
USDJPY slipped for a second consecutive week, but the 158.00 support level held firm, providing a technical foothold for bulls. Elliott Wave analysts interpret the move as the tail end of a corrective wave, setting the stage for a potential...
IMF Admits Currency Intervention Fuels Depreciation, Balances External Accounts
Brad Setser is pleased to see the IMF conceding that intervention by a country in its currency and external accounts “can systematically generate real exchange rate depreciation and raise current account balances”. He is being quite polite. We have known for...
2020‑22 Saw 40% of All USD Created, Ignored
Never, ever forget. Over 40% of all US dollars ever created were done so in 2020-2022. Yet, central bankers and Wall Street Research lectured against a hard asset portfolio and dramatically downplayed currency debasement. https://t.co/M7RQTCMivr
Kenya Softens IMF Stance as Iran Conflict Fuels Balance‑of‑Payments Strain
Kenya's central bank governor Kamau Thugge said Nairobi will resume IMF negotiations in Washington this month, signaling a softer stance after the Iran‑US conflict widened the current‑account gap and forced a downgrade of the 2026 growth forecast to 5.3%. The...
Dollar Poised for Further 5% Decline Amid Widening G10 Gap
The Dollar has a lot further to fall. Look at the gap that's opened up between the Dollar versus the G10 (blue) and the corresponding interest rate differential (black). We're talking about another 5% drop as negotiations continue and war...
Ceasefire Confirmed, US‑Iran Talks Push Dollar Lower
Earlier this week, I predicted we'd get a ceasefire. We did. The US and Iran are negotiating, a big step forward. Lots of details to iron out, but the war is ending, which is hugely risk positive. As a result,...
Pound Pressured Ahead of US CPI as GBP/USD Hovers Near 1.3420
The pound slipped to about $1.3420 per dollar as markets brace for the U.S. consumer price index. Traders have cut expectations for Bank of England hikes to 30‑40 basis points this year, while the Federal Reserve is still seen cutting...
Central Banks' Gold Reserves Now Surpass US Dollar Holdings
JUST IN: Central banks' gold reserves hit a record $3.87 trillion, topping adjusted US Dollar reserves at $3.73 trillion by $140 billion, as gold assets tripled since 2022 while USD reserves fell $300 billion due to geopolitical tensions.
China’s Low Inflation Reflects Sub‑golden M2 Growth
China’s inflation rate comes in at 1.0%/yr in March, BELOW its 2%/yr target. China’s money supply (M2) is growing at 9.0%/yr, BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 10.0%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 2%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY =...
GBPUSD Will Have the Ceiling to Define the Bias in the New Trading Week
The GBP/USD pair is trading near the lower edge of a well‑defined resistance ceiling between 1.34708 and 1.3488 that has capped upside for six weeks. Buyers remain active, but a break above the ceiling would force short covering and spark...
The Need for Federal Reserve Flexibility
The article argues that the Federal Reserve must stay agile as geopolitical shocks and soaring energy and fertilizer prices threaten to reignite inflation. It warns that the Fed’s overly accommodative stance in 2021‑22 helped push inflation to a 9% peak,...
Implementing the Digital Euro Project
The European Central Bank is advancing its digital euro project, originally launched in 2020, as EU legislation clears the path for implementation. The digital currency is envisioned as a cash‑like token to complement physical euros in everyday transactions. ECB officials...
Inflation Outlook and Fed Path Discussed on CNBC
Coming up on CNBC with Kelly Evans & Steve Liesman to talk inflation and the road forward with the Federal Reserve.
Euro Rises as Markets Price Near‑Term ECB Hike, ING Says
The euro appreciated on Friday after ING highlighted that markets now price only a 6‑basis‑point ECB hike on 30 April, with about 55 basis points still priced by year‑end. The analyst expects the euro to hold near 1.1700 against the dollar, outpacing...
South Korea Holds Policy Rate at 2.50% as Government Bond Yields Stabilize
The Bank of Korea kept its seven‑day repurchase rate unchanged at 2.50% for the seventh consecutive meeting, matching a 93% market expectation. The decision came as inflationary pressure from oil prices and exchange‑rate volatility rose, but a surge in semiconductor...
Next Week’s Menu: April 11-17, 2026
Next week (April 11‑17, 2026) brings a packed economic calendar, beginning with the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book and a series of speeches by Fed officials such as Williams, Goolsbee and Barkin. Central banks in Singapore and Turkey will review monetary stances, while...
BSP to Wait for Clearer Signals Before Acting
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will adopt a wait‑and‑see approach ahead of its April 23 policy meeting, citing the need for clearer evidence of second‑round inflation from the current global oil shock. March inflation accelerated to 4.1 percent, overshooting the central...
Ceasefire Sends Dollar Toward Weekly Drop with US-Iran Talks in Focus
The U.S. dollar slipped on Friday, positioning it for its largest weekly decline since January as investors unwound safe‑haven bets following a fragile cease‑fire in the Gulf. The euro rose 1.8% and the pound 2% against the dollar, while the...
Kenya Leaves Benchmark Lending Rate Unchanged on Inflation Jitters
Kenya’s central bank left its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 8.75% after ten consecutive cuts, citing rising inflation risks from higher global oil prices. Inflation edged up to 4.4% in March, while private‑sector activity contracted, ending a six‑month growth streak....
Dollar Slips as CPI Fails to Rattle Fed’s Transitory View, Islamabad Talks Awaited
The U.S. dollar eased after March CPI came in below expectations, with headline inflation spiking on energy but core inflation remaining subdued. The softer core reading reinforced the Federal Reserve’s view that the inflation shock is transitory, keeping near‑term rate‑cut...
Anchored Inflation Expectations Reduce Fed Urgency on Oil Shocks
For a thorough answer to this question, I would highly recommend reading Bernanke's 2004 speech on this subject. Especially this part: "The public's expectation that inflation will remain low minimizes the second-round effects of oil price increases, which (in a virtuous...
Indian Rupee Hits 92.41/USD Amid West Asia Tensions and RBI Limits, Edges to 92.57
The Indian rupee appreciated to 92.41 per U.S. dollar in early trade on Friday, later opening at 92.57, driven by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) directive to curb banks' overnight dollar positions and heightened geopolitical risk in West Asia....
Argentina’s 2026 Inflation Forecast Jumps to 29.1% as Middle East Oil Shock Hits
The Central Bank of Argentina’s latest REM survey lifted the median 2026 inflation forecast to 29.1%, a 3.1‑point jump driven by the Iran‑related oil price surge. The revision threatens the country’s recent disinflation gains and adds pressure on the peso,...
Europe Braces for a Spike in Inflation
Investors are betting that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will raise interest rates this year as Europe confronts a fresh inflation surge. Natural‑gas prices have jumped roughly 40 % since February, driven by the U.S.–Israeli strikes on...
Stripe Already Offers Free FX Quotes API in Beta
I was going to tweet @stripe should add a free exchange rates API after my OpenExchangeRates API started rate limiting me aggressively Then I searched and it already exists and is in beta called the Stripe FX Quotes API I'll try it...
Australian Dollar Hits 3‑Year High Near $0.72 as RBA Tightens and Commodities Surge
The Australian dollar surged to its strongest level since 2023, trading around 0.7065‑0.7080 USD and up more than 10% year‑over‑year. The rally is driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia's aggressive rate hikes to 4.10% and a robust commodity export...
India’s Currency Clampdown Triggers Sharp Sell‑off in Offshore Bond Holdings
The Reserve Bank of India’s abrupt limits on banks’ daily currency positions have forced a $30 billion unwind of arbitrage trades, sending foreign investors fleeing Indian sovereign bonds. The rupee rallied more than 2% to 92.66 per dollar, but banks face...
Yuan Settlements Hit Record Amid Iran war...Beijing Looks to Curb Hidden Local debt...China’s Car Exports See Growth Despite Global Volatility
China’s cross‑border payment system hit a record RMB 1.22 trillion ($178.5 bn) single‑day settlement amid heightened Middle‑East tensions, while regulators moved to block banks from creating hidden local‑government debt through agricultural loans. March saw Chinese car exports surge 73.7% to roughly 700,000...
Tax, Not Dollar, Is the Main Barrier to FII Inflows
Nifty has been going up in the face of an enormous rise in FII selling [annual numbers]. So the selling has not mattered but still all eyes are on FIIs. I can only think of two factors. 1.Withholding Tax [ also...
Iran Pushes Hormuz Fees in Rial as Currency Gains 9%
Iran’s parliament is trying to ensure that Hormuz transit fees will be paid in RIAL. I currently measure that the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 9% vs. the USD since the beginning of the US-Israeli war on Iran. STAY TUNED. https://t.co/o5Mv9sigwg
What Are the Main Events for Today?
The European session will feature only low‑tier releases—Swiss consumer confidence and Italian industrial production—so market impact is expected to be muted. Meanwhile, U.S. and Iran delegations are traveling to Islamabad to begin peace talks that could influence global economic stability....
IMF Acknowledges Currency Intervention Drives Depreciation, Improves Balance
Joe Gagnon (@GagnonMacro) should take a victory lap; the IMF has conceded intervention does have a real impact -- "A growing empirical literature finds that such intervention can systematically generate real exchange rate depreciation and raise current account balances" 1/
Close to Deadline: Hedge Risky US‑Iran Exposure Now
Seriously, we have less than 40 minutes until exchange hours close and we loose liquidity for the week. If you have exposure that you feel is 'risky' should the US-Iran conflict kick off again over the weekend, consider cutting or...
FX Daily: First Inflation Test
The market awaits the March US CPI report, expected to show a 0.9‑percentage‑point monthly jump and a 3.4% year‑on‑year increase, with core inflation only modestly higher. A higher‑than‑expected headline could keep the dollar firm, but the Fed is likely to...
Dollar Slides, Commodity Currencies Surge as War Winds Down
We've entered the phase where the Dollar falls hard against EM. This is driven by a mix of markets feeling like the war is winding down and oil prices still very elevated, which boosts commodity exporting countries like Brazil. Real...
Brazil Real Surges as Markets Sense Ukraine De‑escalation
As soon as markets decided Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 wasn't going to lead to WW3, Brazil's Real began rallying hard. It's the same now. The US is clearly eager for a ceasefire and trying to de-escalate. The Brazilian...
Bank of Korea Holds Rates Steady, Stressing Outlook Is Data Dependent
The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% on April 10, citing persistent inflation and heightened geopolitical risk. Governor Rhee, set to retire on April 20, emphasized a data‑dependent approach and avoided any forward guidance on future...
US Inflation Hotter Yet Below Forecast, Oil Drop Helps
⚠️ US inflation 🔥hotter than prior month Cooler than forecast 🥶 With Oil Drop, inflation fears easing CPI MoM 0.9% in line (Prev 0.3%) CPI YoY 3.3% (Forecast 3.4%, Prev 2.4%) Core CPI MoM 0.2% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.2%) Core CPI YoY 2.6% (Forecast...
G10 Currency Consolidation Positive, Weekend Risks Loom
G10 Currency Consolidation Looks Constructive, but the Weekend Poses Risks: The dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies today, ahead of the March US CPI report. The dollar bloc and the Japanese yen are struggling. However, the tone is mostly…...
US Inflation Remains Tame Despite Oil Price Spike
How bad is the US inflation picture? The spike in oil prices will push up March CPI later today, but - under the hood - inflation is well behaved. Yesterday's PCE reading for February showed core services inflation (blue) slowing....
G10 FX Consolidates Amid US CPI, Canada Jobs, Geopolitical Tension
The G10 fx consolidation today looks constructive. Today's North American highlights including US March CPI and Canada's jobs data. Middle East ceasefire is frayed but intact ahead of the weekend negotiations. Hungary holds key election too. See https://t.co/ilDfPE14fW https://t.co/vM5PZMv4eI
Higher Oil Prices Set to Spike CPI, Live Trade
Today we'll see the first impact of higher oil prices on CPI. The news could rock the markets like no other piece of fundamental data. We are going to trade it LIVE and see if we can get FUNDED in one trade. Join...
Libya’s Oil Steady, Prices Surge, Dinar Jumps 27%
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Libya's oil production has stabilized at ~1.3 million barrels/day and the price has SOARED. As night follows day, the Libyan dinar APPRECIATED by 27% vs. the USD. https://t.co/5PPdIEUYSV
Pakistan's Money Supply Outpaces Golden Rate, Fueling Inflation
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Pakistan's March inflation is 7.3%/yr. Pak's money supply (M3) is growing at 15%/yr. That’s ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 11.5-13.5%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Pakistan's inflation target of 5-7%/yr. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/IKlK5BLB5t