Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
Gabriel Makhlouf: Inflation, Growth, and Monetary Policy in a Fractured World
Gabriel Makhlouf, the ECB’s chief economist, warned that the ongoing Middle‑East conflict is creating a deep energy supply shock that could push oil to $145 per barrel and keep euro‑area inflation above the 2 % target through 2027. He outlined three scenarios—baseline, adverse and severe—showing how higher energy prices translate into cost‑push inflation, slower growth and potential wage pressures. The Governing Council left the policy rate unchanged at 2 % and emphasized a data‑dependent, meeting‑by‑meeting approach, using scenario analysis to stay agile. Makhlouf highlighted the key indicators he will monitor, from energy prices to wage dynamics, to gauge whether temporary spikes become persistent.
Luis De Guindos: Navigating Turbulence - Challenges for Europe and the Path Ahead
Luis de Guindos warned that Europe faces heightened geopolitical uncertainty, especially from the Middle‑East war, which threatens energy prices and financial stability. He noted the euro area grew 1.5% in 2025 and inflation has hovered near the ECB’s 2% target,...
South African Rand Begins Mean-Reversion, Trading Near R16.4
The South African Rand is in the process of mean reverting now, i.e. the last few years it has been pulling back (‘strengthening’) from recent lows of around R19.90 region. It hit a cycle high of around R15.68 (Jan, 26)...
Is the Australian Dollar Entering a Super Cycle?
Australian dollar momentum has surged as the US Dollar Index stalls, while the Chinese yuan continues its upward trajectory. Commodity markets have shifted, with oil prices plunging and gold prices rallying, creating a backdrop for a potential AUD super‑cycle. Analyst...
Ceasefire May Reduce Case for Fed Cuts as Inflation Risks Persist: Timiraos
A ceasefire between the United States and Iran has eased the growth‑downside risk that previously bolstered the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts. While markets have nudged up the odds of easing, analyst Nick Timiraos argues that inflation pressures remain...
AUD Seen Capped Near 0.7150 as Hormuz Uncertainty Clouds Outlook: Westpac
Westpac predicts the Australian dollar will be capped between $0.7100 and $0.7150 over the next one to two weeks unless the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens and the US‑Iran ceasefire proves durable. The bank’s FX chief says a breakout higher...
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Mid-Point Today at 6.8649 (Vs. Estimate at 6.8315)
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set today’s USD/CNY mid‑point at 6.8649, within its usual ±2% trading band. The central bank also injected roughly 500 million yuan (about $73 million) into the market through a 7‑day reverse‑repo operation, leaving the repo rate...
RBNZ Says Prior Cuts Still Support Growth, Sees Upside if Conflict Eases
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its cash rate at 2.25% for a second meeting, noting that earlier rate cuts are still feeding through the economy. Governor Anna Breman said growth this year hinges on a swift resolution to...
PBOC Is Expected to Set the USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.8315 – Reuters Estimate
The People’s Bank of China is expected to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8315, according to Reuters estimates. The midpoint is announced each morning and defines a ±2% trading band for the onshore yuan. A stronger-than-expected midpoint is...
XRP Poised as Bridge Linking SDR Currencies
SDR: Bretton Woods 1944 basket currency, GDP-weighted. IMF lender of last resort. 2014 IMF paper introduced exchange rate peg abbreviation. Ripples rebranded XRP same timeframe. XRP likely bridge between SDR currencies, not replacement.
North Macedonia’s FX Reserves up 9.6% Y/Y in March
North Macedonia's foreign exchange reserves rose 9.6% year‑on‑year to €4.249 bn (about $4.6 bn) in March 2026, according to the central bank. The gain follows a 5.5% dip in February, which the bank linked to rising business costs from Middle‑East tensions. Securities still...
RBI Monetary Policy: Currency Forward Curbs Temporary, Says Sanjay Malhotra
The Reserve Bank of India announced that its recent non‑deliverable forward (NDF) market curbs are temporary, targeting speculative pressure linked to the West Asia conflict. Banks must trim net open forex positions to $100 million by April 10, with no deadline extension,...
RBI Monetary Policy: Call Below Repo to Comfort Banks
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) clarified that call‑rate levels below the repo rate are a liquidity‑comfort measure, not a prelude to a rate cut. In March, the weighted‑average call rate (WACR) held at 5.25%, aligning with the 5.25% policy...
Fed Minutes Reveal Split on Iran Risk, Lean Toward Hikes
March's Fed minutes show broad support for a patient approach to forthcoming rate decisions, but splintering views over what the biggest risk from the Iran war will be. A vast majority of policymakers now expect slower progress toward the 2%...
Fed Sees Slower Inflation Progress Amid Tariffs, Oil, Fragile Expectations
The Fed minutes showed "the vast majority" of officials thought inflation progress could be slower than expected, driven by three overlapping concerns: tariff effects on goods prices that may take longer to fade, oil prices bleeding into core inflation, and...
FX Moment: Iran War Shift First Step Out of Sterling Bear Cycle
In this episode of FX Moment, Chief FX Strategist Audrey Charles Freeman and Chief UK Economist Dan Hansen examine how the recent US‑Iran cease‑fire announcement is easing market sentiment and reshaping the outlook for sterling. They argue that the war‑driven...
XRPL Poised for $18‑21T Daily Settlement Throughput
Three flows: stock market backend settlement, commodities, FX. Each $6-7T daily volume. Total $18-21T daily XRPL throughput. NASDAQ and NYSE tokenization confirmed. Canton lacks clarity, Project Ion finalized 2022 using XRP settlement.
Dollar Slump Lifts US Bean Prices, Drops Brazil’s
The U.S. dollar on Wednesday fell to a two-year low against the Brazilian real, down about 19% from its Dec. 2024 peak. Applying this to CBOT soybean prices: 🇺🇸Beans (USD) are up 11% from this same week last year 🇧🇷Beans (BRL) are...
Bahrain and UAE Seal $5.3 Billion Currency Swap to Strengthen Economic Ties
The central banks of the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have signed a five‑year currency swap agreement worth roughly $5.3 billion (BHD 2 billion or AED 20 billion). The pact is designed to provide mutual liquidity support, promote the use of local currencies in trade,...
West Asia War: RBI Warns of Upside Risks to Current Account Deficit in FY27; Rupee Faces Continued Headwinds
The Reserve Bank of India warned that rising energy prices and a strong dollar could push the current account deficit (CAD) higher in FY27, after it widened to 1.3% of GDP in Q3 2025‑26. Net capital inflows fell short of...
The Dollar’s Slow Unraveling: How Bitcoin, Digital Currencies, and a Secret Oil Deal Are Reshaping the World’s Money
A new paper in the Journal of Post‑Keynesian Economics details how the US dollar became the world’s primary currency, largely thanks to a secret 1974 Saudi‑oil‑for‑Treasury‑bond pact that expired in 2024. The study argues that the petrodollar arrangement allowed the...
Oil Slump Pushes Yields Lower, India Growth Forecast Cut
🌍 Global News Update: ⦿ Brazil's 10-year bond yield tumbled toward 13.7% as crude oil prices plunged, improving the inflation outlook. ⦿ US crude inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels to 464.7 million barrels in the week ended April 3. ⦿ US 10-year...
RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% and Reaffirms Neutral Stance as Markets React
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its benchmark policy repo rate steady at 5.25% and reiterated a neutral stance on April 8, 2026. The decision came as the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee cited resilient macro fundamentals despite heightened geopolitical...
Cease‑fire Trims Fed’s Demand‑risk Tail More than Inflation Upside
A durable cease-fire narrows the tail risks for the Fed on both sides, but it may do so asymmetrically: it cuts off the demand destruction tail that could have forced near-term cuts arguably more than it cuts off the upside...
Pullback Complete, Market Turns Bearish – Await Sell Signals
📊 AUDUSD D1 – Trade Update 🔥 The pullback move is complete and our Take Profit has been hit. 🎯📈 📉 Now the market is shifting back into the bearish direction. 🎯 Next Plan: • Wait for selling opportunities • Use lower timeframe confirmation before...
NBP Preview: Rates on Hold, Rhetoric Turning Neutral/Hawkish
Poland’s Monetary Policy Council is expected to keep its main policy rate at 3.75% through the end of 2024 as global uncertainty and a lingering energy shock persist. Despite a weaker-than-expected pass‑through of oil price hikes to domestic fuel costs...
Shock‑Driven Episodes Trigger Major RANd Capital Shifts
What Lesetja Kganyago describes here as the structural mechanism, '𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗻𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗳𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘂𝘁, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗯𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲'. That part is always true, it is textbook stuff. But every...
Rupee Likely to Stabilise at 92-93 Level: EAC-PM Chairman
The Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister said the Indian rupee is likely to settle between 92 and 93 per U.S. dollar after recent volatility from global tensions and foreign institutional investor outflows. A temporary cease‑fire between the United...
EURUSD Weekly Bears Shift, Await Lower‑TF Confirmation
📊 EURUSD – Weekly Time Frame Forecast 🔎 On the Weekly timeframe, we have a clear bearish structure shift 📉 ⚡ The market is also reacting from a strong Order Block (OB) + Fair Value Gap (FVG) — a high-probability confluence zone. 🎯...
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PBOC Poised to Set Yuan Midpoint at 6.8773 per Dollar as FX Reserves Fall 2.5% to $33.4 Trillion
The People’s Bank of China is likely to set the yuan’s midpoint at 6.8773 per dollar, a level that suggests a modest tightening of policy. At the same time, official data show China’s foreign‑exchange reserves fell 2.5% in March to...
CBDC Arriving 2031, Crypto Considered Dead
This is literally a CBDC which sounds great because we are getting one in or around 2031 and traditional finance is currently preparing for it. Crypto is dead.
Fed Misses 2% Target 60 Months, Global Inflation Persists
According to the FT, the FED has MISSED its 2% inflation target for 60 STRAIGHT MONTHS. Across the world, 3 out of 4 developed economies and 1 in 2 emerging economies are missing their targets as well. THE GLOBAL INFLATION GENIE REMAINS...
Bank of England: Interest Rate Hike Predictions Cool as Trader Sentiment Resets
Traders have sharply revised expectations for Bank of England policy, now pricing in only a single 25‑basis‑point rate hike after a cease‑fire between the US, Israel and Iran eased Middle‑East tensions. The two‑year gilt yield fell to 4.1%, down from...
NZ 2-Year Yield Stays Steady Amid RBNZ Hawkish Shift
It is remarkable that the NZ 2-year yield saw little adjustment with the RBNZ's hawkish shift. The NZ-US 2-year spread was essentially unchanged despite the $NZUSD rally. Remarkable
Macro Data Deluge Competes with US‑Iran Tensions
Next week's macro docket is nuts. The IMF will update its WEO; China Q1 GDP; Bank earnings start and the Fed Beige Book will inform the Apr 29 FOMC decision (among other many other listings). Are we going to be...
FX Alert: Back From The Brink
A two‑week ceasefire in the Middle East has pulled oil prices and related markets off the brink of extreme stress. Brent crude slid roughly 16%, prompting a mechanical unwind of the war‑driven risk premium, while equities steadied and the yield...
Key Political & Fed Events Set to Move Markets
Some catalysts over the next hour or so... 1pm ET - WH Press conference re: difference between Iran 10 and American 15 point plans 1:15pm - Netanyahu press conference re ceasefire 2pm - March FOMC minutes
Dollar‑EM Indicator Signals Return to 2010‑13 Weakness
It's the Dollar versus EM that's been the key leading indicator for USD direction and that's now tumbling (black). We're in a new regime for the Dollar and are going back to the 2010-2013 period, when Dollar weakness was primarily...
DXY Elliott Wave Analysis - Approaching the Final Washout
The latest Elliott Wave analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) indicates the currency is approaching a decisive low, often termed the "final washout." While market chatter focuses on imminent Fed rate cuts, rising liquidity, and a structurally weaker dollar,...
Dollar Set to Tumble, Weakness Through 2026
The Dollar is tumbling as I forecast in my posts predicting a ceasefire. USD will now unwind all its rise from the past month, which was entirely due to short-term safe haven flows that'll now reverse. We're back to Dollar...
Fed Shifts Focus: From Reserve Supply to Demand Liquidity
The Fed’s Overton window appears to be changing. Recent speeches suggest a shift in thinking from supply-driven ample reserves to demand-driven liquidity. Details in my latest newsletter: https://t.co/pPOkB73y6o @vtg2 @NickTimiraos @Isabel_Schnabel @conksresearch https://t.co/RyKoxuTxMA
RBI Ups Crude Oil, Exchange Rate Baseline Assumptions for FY27
The Reserve Bank of India raised its FY27 baseline crude‑oil price to $85 per barrel, up from $70 in the second half of FY26, and lifted its rupee projection to 94 per dollar, up from 88. The revision follows a...
Brazilian Real Surges Toward 2022 Fair Value
The Brazilian Real today is strengthening sharply against the Dollar. $/BRL has fallen below where it was on Feb. 27, i.e. before the war with Iran began. The Real will now start a big strengthening cycle. Back to $/BRL fair...
Veteran ERZ
Followed by everyone, and it does seem like everyone in EZ rate space, who has been long ERZ6 since 97 and change.
Elliott Wave Update of USDJPY – April 8th, 2026
The USD/JPY pair slipped this week as a relief rally lifted the yen against the dollar following the announcement of a US‑Iran cease‑fire agreement. Traders are debating whether the dip represents a buying opportunity or a temporary correction. Elliott Wave...
Key Market Targets Hit Before Vacation: DXY Down
2 days before going on vacation, the key targets were hit. #DXY 200 DMA https://t.co/iYwNgfojQK
Turkey's Inflation Eases, but Loose Policy Fuels Surge
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Turkey's CPI inflation slowed to 30.87%/yr in March, down from 31.53%/yr in February. With its money supply, M3, still growing at 39.9%/yr, Turkey’s #1 problem REMAINS Inflation. Monetary policy is still too loose. https://t.co/2EpdZjFZ8x
FX Daily: Global FX Comes Back From the Brink
A two‑week cease‑fire between Iran and its adversaries has sparked a broad risk‑on rally, lifting equities, steepening yield curves and prompting a rebound in most currencies against the dollar. The U.S. dollar index, which rose about 3 % in March, slipped...
Elliott Wave Update of EURUSD – April 8th, 2026
EWM Interactive released an Elliott Wave update on the EUR/USD pair, highlighting a sharp rally on April 8, 2026. The analysis applies Elliott Wave theory to the recent price surge, identifying the move as a potential Wave 3 impulse. Key price targets and...