Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
InvestingLive Asia-Pacific FX News Wrap: Doubts over Islamabad Talks This Weekend
Iranian state media rejected reports of a U.S. delegation in Islamabad, insisting talks will only resume after a Lebanon ceasefire. Japan’s finance minister Shunichi Katayama warned of possible FX intervention as oil‑driven volatility spikes, while the Bank of Japan flagged stagflation risks if Middle‑East tensions linger. In the United States, a Senate Banking Committee delay of the Kevin Warsh hearing postpones any Fed leadership change, preserving policy continuity. Meanwhile, South Korea kept rates steady, China posted rising producer prices but soft consumer inflation, and Asian markets remained largely steady despite the geopolitical backdrop.
Gold Overtakes Treasuries in Central Bank Reserves
🔥Gold is making history: Gold now makes up 24% of global central bank reserves, surpassing US Treasuries at 21% for the first time since the mid 1990s. This is a complete reversal from Q4 2015, when Treasuries made up 33% of reserves...
Dollar Reserves in the Wake of Trump
The IMF’s COFER data show the U.S. dollar’s share of global foreign‑exchange reserves has slipped, driven by a weaker dollar and a rally in gold prices. When exchange‑rate effects are stripped out, the dollar’s share actually rose after 2024 Q4,...
Weak Chinese Economy Fuels Outward Credit Hunt
There are a lot of stories about Chinese assets acting like havens, especially China IG credit outperforming. How do you square that with a very weak economy? Well, the reason China IG credit is outperforming is because of the weak economy....
ECB Cuts QE by Half, Sheds €66B in March
The Once Uber-Dovish ECB Continues QT, Shed €66 Billion in March, Has now Shed 50% of QE Assets since Peak. Marking its gold to market every quarter (unlike the Fed), the ECB booked another big write-up of its gold holdings in...
Japanese Yen Near 159/$ and Korean Won Drop to 1,480/$ Amid Fragile US‑Iran Ceasefire
The Japanese yen slipped back toward ¥159 per dollar and the South Korean won opened at 1,480.6 per dollar as investors reacted to renewed doubts over a newly‑brokered US‑Iran ceasefire. The moves underscore how Middle‑East geopolitics are reverberating through Asian...
Russia's Central Bank Mulls Pause in Rate Cuts, Hinting at Ruble Support
Russia's central bank is weighing a pause in its series of interest‑rate cuts, a move that could shore up the ruble as inflation stays near 4‑5% and Middle‑East tensions loom. Advisor Kirill Tremasov said the April board will assess the...
DEBATE | Marc Faber vs Brent Johnson: What Comes Next After The Iran War?
Thoughtful Money moderated a live debate between Marc Faber, editor of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, and Brent Johnson, founder of the Dollar Milkshake Theory, to assess the fallout from the US‑Israel war with Iran. The discussion explored whether...
Ceasefire of the Madman
HSBC’s latest geopolitical paper argues that a de‑escalation of global tensions will diminish the U.S. dollar’s safe‑haven appeal. With reduced risk, demand for the dollar should fall, allowing higher‑risk, undervalued currencies to rally. Emerging‑market (EM) currencies and those of energy‑importing...
DON'T BE A VICTIM OF THE MATH: The M2 Explosion That's Coming, Inevitable Debt Monetization & How to Protect Your...
The United States faces a projected cumulative deficit of $22 trillion over the next ten years, far exceeding official forecasts that assume no new wars or recessions. To fund this gap, the Federal Reserve will likely resort to massive balance‑sheet expansion,...
Oil Shock Inflation Temporary, Fed Should Keep Cutting Rates
Kevin Hassett tells @MariaBartiromo the inflation from the oil-price shock will be temporary and should allow the Fed to continue cutting interest rates: "There are a lot of people who are currently at the Federal Reserve that understand that, that this...
RBI Mandates Payment of Inward Remittances on Same Business Day
India, the world’s top remittance recipient with $135 billion in 2025 inflows, is set to speed up inbound foreign‑exchange transfers. The Reserve Bank of India issued a final circular mandating banks to credit payments to beneficiaries on the same business day...
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Understanding Open Market Operations: The Fed's Tool for Monetary Policy
Open market operations (OMOs) are the Federal Reserve’s primary tool for adjusting the money supply by buying or selling Treasury securities. Permanent OMOs involve outright purchases or sales to shape long‑term rates, while temporary OMOs use repos and reverse repos...
Marex Launches Private Markets Desk
Marex Group plc announced the launch of a dedicated Private Markets desk, headed by Jack Carnell and Lloyd Beeston. The unit will deliver institutional‑grade foreign‑exchange and interest‑rate hedging solutions tailored to private‑capital managers. Leveraging Marex’s proprietary technology, investment‑grade credit rating and global...
Supply‑driven Market Renders Rate Hikes Ineffective, Boosting Hard Assets
Rates down. Dollar down. Commodities and Latam stocks surging. A reminder: This is a supply-driven market — hiking rates won’t solve the problem. If anything, a higher cost of debt only worsens it by tightening access to capital. And to be fair: The US...
France's $15B Gold Pull Signals Global Reserve Shift
My remarks w/ @DailyCaller on the French withdrawing $15B in gold from the US: “The risk of having foreign reserve assets frozen in the US came up when the US & its allies froze Russian central bank assets in Feb. 2022.” I anticipate...
Indonesian Rupiah Slides to 17,070 per Dollar, Squeezing Businesses
The Indonesian rupiah weakened to roughly 17,070 per U.S. dollar on April 9, 2026, intensifying cost‑push inflation for manufacturers that rely on imported components. Business leaders warned the slide threatens cash flow, margins and overall demand, and urged the government...
When Debt Outpaces Income, Fiat Currency Weakens
Throughout history, all fiat currencies eventually face the same pressures. When debt grows faster than income and money needs to be created to fill the gap, the value of that money changes. This isn’t a prediction—it’s a pattern that has repeated...
RBI Issues Guidelines to Enhance Efficiency of Cross-Border Inward Payments
The Reserve Bank of India has released new guidelines to accelerate cross‑border inward payments. Banks must credit inbound funds received during foreign‑exchange market hours on the same business day and those received after hours on the next business day, while...
Banks Close Out Bulk of Their Long Dollar Positions Ahead of RBI’s April 10 Deadline
The Reserve Bank of India issued a prudential circular on March 27 requiring banks to cap their net open position in INR at $100 million, with compliance due by April 10. In response, banks have unwound roughly 90 percent of the estimated $18‑30 billion...
BSP: Policy Vigilance to Continue After S&P Tempers Philippine Outlook
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said it will keep monitoring the impact of the Middle East war after S&P Global Ratings downgraded the Philippines' sovereign outlook from positive to stable while keeping the BBB+ rating. S&P cited the country's strong...
Turkey's Central Bank Loses 128 Tons Gold Amid Lira Pressure
The latest data - out today - show gold holdings by Turkey's central bank falling a further 8 tons in the week to April 3. This brings the total drop to 128 tons since depreciation pressure on the Lira peg...
The Decline and Fall of the Dollar Empire
Barry Eichengreen argues that the United States is losing its status as the world’s primary currency issuer, likening today’s dollar decline to the fall of Rome’s denarius. He points to chronic economic stagnation, a debt load surpassing $31 trillion, and costly...
Liberia’s Central Bank to Print New Banknotes to Ease Cash Shortage
The Central Bank of Liberia announced a new banknote‑printing program to replace mutilated notes and match expanding transactional demand. Deputy Director P. Mah Kruah said the move is coordinated with the IMF and will be sized to market needs, while officials...
Iran‑U.S. Ceasefire Sends Oil 16% Lower, Spurs Stock Rally, Dollar Hits 4‑Week Low
President Donald Trump's announcement of a two‑week ceasefire with Iran sent U.S. crude down 16.4% to $94.41 a barrel, sparked a 2.5% jump in the S&P 500, and drove the dollar to its lowest level in four weeks. Traders now...
U.S.–Iran Ceasefire Triggers Global Bond Rally, 10‑Year Yields Drop 8 Bps
The announcement of a two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran sent U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields down 8 basis points to 4.23% and sparked a broad rally in sovereign bonds worldwide. The move erased a sizable risk premium on...
François Villeroy De Galhau: Navigating an Uncertain World - Steering Monetary Policy in the Right Direction to Hold Our Course
At a Sciences Po address on April 2, 2026, Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau highlighted that the eurozone entered the year with a rare "2 % inflation, 2 % interest rate" equilibrium. He warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict could reignite...
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The Reserve Bank of India: Functions & Role
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), founded on April 1, 1935 under the RBI Act of 1934, serves as India’s central bank and monetary authority. It formulates and implements monetary policy, regulates currency issuance, and oversees the nation’s credit and foreign‑exchange markets....
The USD Is Mixed vs the Major Currencies to Kickstart the Thursday Trading
The US dollar showed mixed performance Thursday, edging higher against the yen while slipping modestly versus the euro and pound. The move comes amid lingering uncertainty over a potential cease‑fire in the Israel‑Iran conflict, which has driven oil prices up...
How Have Interest Rate Expectations Changed After the Ceasefire Announcement?
After the ceasefire announcement, market pricing shows a broadly dovish repricing of interest‑rate expectations as inflation worries ease. The Fed now shows a 7‑basis‑point cut probability with a 98% chance of holding rates at the next meeting. Most other central...
Rupee Stalls Near 92.6 as US‑Iran Ceasefire Fears Meet RBI’s Low‑Rate Outlook
The rupee lingered at 92.65 per dollar on Thursday, squeezed by volatility from a fragile US‑Iran cease‑fire and the Reserve Bank of India’s suggestion that policy rates could remain low for the next year. Traders unwound roughly $40 billion of arbitrage...
Buffett & I Reject Fed’s 2% Inflation Goal
Warren Buffett doesn't believe in the Fed's 2% inflation target. Neither do I. If the goal is "price stability," - why ANY inflation? That 2% compounded is robbing your purchasing power. Here's a thought: What if prices should actually go DOWN? Everyone...
KBank, StraitsX, Grab Enable Real-Time Cross‑Border Payments
KBank, StraitsX, and Grab Launch Blockchain Cross-Border Payments Thailand's KBank + StraitsX + Grab enable real-time Thailand–Singapore payments via Q Wallet. XSGD stablecoin powers settlement, travelers scan QR codes for instant blockchain settlement bypassing traditional FX costs. Tech: Q-money (KBank's e-money...
Dollar Holds Steadier Today as Fragile US-Iran Truce Keeps Traders Guessing
The U.S. dollar held modest gains on Thursday as traders remained cautious amid a fragile U.S.-Iran truce. Risk‑off sentiment tempered the rally, leaving European equity indices slightly lower and the DAX still riding yesterday’s 5% surge. In the FX market,...
EUR Money Markets: Stirred, Not Shaken
An oil‑price surge linked to the Iran conflict has pushed the European Central Bank out of its previously comfortable stance, reviving expectations of up to three rate hikes this year. Short‑end money‑market rates have fallen, yet no systemic stress is...
Denis Beau: Stablecoins - What Strategic Choices for Europe?
Denis Beau, senior official at Banque de France, outlined the EU’s strategic response to the rise of USD‑denominated stablecoins. He warned that unchecked “stablecoinisation” and “dollarisation” could threaten Europe’s monetary sovereignty and advocated preserving the two‑tier system of central‑bank money...
Piero Cipollone: The Digital Euro - Preparing for a Potential Launch
Eurozone leaders reaffirmed the strategic importance of a digital euro, linking it to monetary sovereignty, reduced retail‑payment fragmentation, and Single Market resilience. The Eurosystem is advancing technical preparations but will only issue the token‑based currency after a dedicated legal framework...
Made $200k on USDCAD with Simple Bullish Impulse Setup
I still look back at this setup I made $200k trading On USDCAD which was a record month for me trading in terms of gains obviously. It was a simple bullish impulse structure setup Watch the breakdown and recap here https://youtu.be/jlAr5hdXLc0?si=TSGu9_2ivAhZZf0G
Markets Poised at Critical Levels Ahead of NY Open
Markets are sitting right at those make-or-break levels before the NY open. Everyone's watching to see which way we break. Tomorrow we'll be tracking these key zones live with the DOTS indicator to catch the moves as they develop. https://t.co/66dSROf2rQ...
Inflation Surge: CPI Expected 3.3%, Dollar Under Pressure
The Feb PCE deflator - Fed's favorite inflation measure - held at 2.8% earlier. That's well above the 2.0% target...before energy prices sored. Tomorrow's March CPI update is expected to accelerate from 2.4% in Feb to 3.3%. Here's the #Dollar...
Gold, Not Currency, Will Dominate Future Reserves
"But what currency will replace the USD in global FX reserves?" -Question I've been asked repeatedly over the past 10 years. "No currency will...gold will." -My answer every time over those 10 years. What if the currency system...
Brazilian Real Leads Global Gains, Heralding New LatAm Cycle
The Brazilian real is outperforming every major currency in the world year to date. I was told this could never happen — but here we are. Welcome to a new LatAm cycle, folks. Exciting times ahead for this region. https://t.co/tvtFhSgOxD https://t.co/6dbPKm7I3L
Thailand's 12‑Month Deflation Linked to Low Money Supply
Thailand's March CPI is -0.08%/yr. That's the 12th consecutive month in DEFLATION. In the past 3 years, its money supply has grown BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 5.4-7.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting a 1-3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY...
Brazil's Real Yields Match Hypothetical 12% US Rates
Wow I wasn't aware just how positive Brazilian real rates were. This would be like if U.S. interest rates at 12%... https://t.co/M9wTdfi05a
Wedge Break Signals Clear Tech Market Direction
This is the kind wedge pattern break that offers clear resolution for tech observers... $DXY Dollar Index: https://t.co/MwWVvohhYo
US Market Depth Keeps Dollar King Despite Global Turmoil
I spoke to @SeanPmathews about KING DOLLAR: "Sanctions, wars, and tariffs make it easier for the dollar's challengers. But the US is the biggest, most liquid capital market in the world, bigger than all the others put together. That’s why king...
Venezuela Wastes $330M Buying Bolívars; Adopt Dollar Now
#VNZWatch 🇻🇪: In an attempt to prop up the collapsing bolívar, the government has sold about $330 million to purchase bolívars. This is a futile exercise. THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD REPLACE THE BOLÍVAR WITH THE GREENBACK IMMEDIATELY. https://t.co/J9kJ4mZ9TB
Euro's Debt Charade Leaves Spain, Italy, France Vulnerable
The Euro got hijacked by high-debt countries to foster the illusion they're solvent. But yield caps don't confer fiscal space, which is why - when a shock like Ukraine hits - Spain (ES), Italy (IT) and France (FR) can't help....
Italy's Record Deficit Highlights ECB's Debt‑Shielding Role
Italy's cash budget deficit in Mar '26 is the biggest ever, wider even than Mar '20 at the height of COVID. At the root of this lies the ECB, which is co-opted by high-debt countries and protects them from markets....
Sterling Bears Higher War Premium than Euro in Options
Sterling is carrying more of a war premium than the euro in options https://t.co/0TGxw7IWtw via @vkaramanis_fx https://t.co/auNGmA7b1x