Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
PrimeXBT Wins Best Forex & CFD Broker – Asia Awards, Boosting Derivatives Platform Growth
PrimeXBT was named Best Forex & CFD Broker – Asia and Best Trading Conditions – Asia at the World Business Outlook Awards 2026. The accolades highlight the broker’s rapid expansion in Asian derivatives trading and its integrated crypto‑TradFi offering.
Markets Overestimate Rate Hikes; PMI Says Otherwise
The markets now think the ECB and BOE will now hike rates by at least 50bps apiece, and the RBA will hike by at least another 50bps on top of the 50bps they've done already. The PMI data says otherwise....
North Korean Won Plummets 61%, World's 2nd Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated by 61% against the USD over the past year. THE COLLAPSE OF THE WON IS THE WORLD’S MOST UNREPORTED CURRENCY STORY. https://t.co/WiB50eaMz6
Bank of Ghana Cuts Policy Rate to 14% as Cedi Slides, Defends Dual‑track Approach
The Bank of Ghana reduced its policy rate from 15.5% to 14% and said the move is part of a dual‑track monetary framework that balances cheaper credit with aggressive liquidity absorption. The central bank absorbed about GH₵17 bn in excess liquidity...
What Now for the Australian Dollar?
The Australian dollar remains pinned around US$0.70 as the US Dollar Index eases amid peace‑rumor optimism. Safe‑haven demand for the Japanese yen is pressuring regional currencies, leaving the AUD in a narrow range. Commodity markets are volatile: gold prices have...
Yuan Slides as Traders Gauge Iran Conflict Risks and China’s Hormuz Diplomacy
The onshore yuan slipped modestly against the dollar as markets absorbed fresh developments in the Iran‑Israel war and China’s diplomatic warnings over the Hormuz crisis. Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel, while Beijing urged restraint, underscoring the link between...
B‑Book Strategies Thrive Until Market Reverses, Then Collapse
When B Books fail. I still remmember the GBPJPY trade of 2005-2006 like it was yesterday. I was working for FXCM whic was teh biggest retai dealer at the time and of course like dealers the delaing room was rarely offsetting risk...
Inflation, ECB Hikes, and Gold Dip Buying Explored
This morning on @asharqbusiness discussing inflation, ECB rate hikes, buying the dip on gold and other macroeconomic data. 📊
The Dollar Is Trading Like a Petrocurrency
Since the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran began in late February, the U.S. Dollar Index has risen sharply, pulling down precious‑metal prices. The dollar’s strength is tied to a parallel surge in crude oil, which jumped from the $60s to around...
EM Rally and Strong Dollar: Unsustainable, Breaks Quickly
EM rallying while the dollar firms is a tough combo to sustain. If it breaks, it breaks fast. Where does the pressure show up first when this snaps? em
Markets Revise Expectations for Price‑Stability‑Focused Central Banks
These FT charts illustrate the shift in market expectations for policy actions by the world’s major central banks. The change has been particularly striking for central banks with a single mandate (of price stability). #economy #markets #centralbanks @financialtimes
SNB Chairman: We Are Prepared to Introduce Negative Rates but the Hurdle Is High
Swiss National Bank Chairman announced that the central bank is prepared to push policy rates into negative territory, but acknowledges a high hurdle before such a move. He emphasized that while the policy rate remains the primary tool, foreign‑exchange intervention...
Patience and Precision Drive Consistent Trading Success
Pro Level Setup 💎 Clean structure, liquidity grab, and strong move down. Patience + precision = consistency. Trade smart, not fast. #Trading #Forex #SmartMoney #ICT #PriceAction
How Exchange Rate Movements Impact Businesses Importing From China
UK importers buying from China face cost volatility because most Chinese suppliers invoice in US dollars, forcing businesses to manage both GBP/USD and USD/CNY pairs. A 5‑10% swing in the pound can instantly raise cost of goods sold, while freight...
National Bank of Hungary Review: No Need to Panic, Unless…
The National Bank of Hungary kept its key policy rate at 6.25% on 24 March, reflecting a hawkish stance amid Middle‑East tensions and an energy‑price shock. Inflation fell to a ten‑year low, but the bank expects it to stabilize around 4%...
Short ZAR/USD as Strong Dollar Presses South African Rand
Macro: ZAR down 1.7% as a firm USD pressures EM FX. Key: stronger dollar despite improved SA leading indicator. Risk: Iran headlines could spike oil and force risk-off. Trade: short ZAR/USD on USD momentum 📉 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More...
Meet Qivalis: The Bank-Led Effort to Internationalise the Euro with Stablecoins
European banks have formed a consortium called Qivalis to issue a euro‑denominated stablecoin, marking the first large‑scale, bank‑led effort to internationalise the euro in digital form. The project receives backing from the European Central Bank’s regulatory sandbox, signaling official support...
Why US and UK Monetary Policy Responses to the Iran War Differ
The article examines why the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have taken divergent monetary‑policy paths in response to the Iran‑Israel conflict. While the Fed has kept policy tight, emphasizing inflation control and using liquidity facilities to cushion market...
Rupee Slides to 93.73 per Dollar as Oil Prices Surge and RBI Policy Debate Intensifies
The Indian rupee weakened to 93.73 against the dollar, its lowest level in months, after crude oil prices jumped and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) grappled with divergent views on monetary tightening. Traders cite the oil shock and a...
Trump’s Hormuz Remarks Threaten Petrodollar‑reserve Currency Pact
One of the foundations of the US reserve currency status is the 1970s Nixon-KSA agreement that the US provides military protection in return for recycling of Petrodollars into the US bond market. When President Trump says things like that "we...
War‑Driven Dollar Spike Likely Boosts Gurgaon Real Estate
War, Dollar @ 93–94, Gulf Risk — Will NRI Money Rotate to India and Push Gurgaon Real Estate? This is not fear talk. This is capital-flow math. Right now rupee has touched ~93–94 per USD during the Middle-East war volatility, near record lows....
Dollar Dominance in Central Bank Reserves
The IMF’s COFER database shows the U.S. dollar still commands roughly 60% of global foreign‑exchange reserves, keeping its status as the premier reserve currency. Over the past decade the euro and Chinese yuan have inched upward, while the British pound...
War Triggers Swing From Expected Cuts to Near‑zero Hikes
The day the war started (Feb 28), Fed fund futures were pricing in 2.5 rate Fed CUTS for 2026. Now they are pricing in 0.2 of a Fed rate HIKE for the rest of the year. https://t.co/kZikoSqzqz
Billions in FX Options Expire Tomorrow Across Major Pairs
Interesting FX options expiring tomorrow: $1.1605 for 1.8 bln euros, Thurs ~1.4 bln euros at $1.16. JPY160 for $885 mln A$1.4 bln at $0.6950. $420 mln at CAD1.3785 and $590 mln at CAD1.38. DTCC listed.
Israel, Iran War: Goldman Sachs Slashes India Growth Forecast, Warns Currency Strain Will Force Rate Hike
Goldman Sachs trimmed its 2026 Indian growth outlook to 5.9%, down from a pre‑war 7% estimate, citing higher oil prices and prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The bank now projects inflation at 4.6% and expects the Reserve Bank...
US Money Supply Jumps 5%—Largest Rise Since 2022
The US Money Supply grew 5% over the last year, the biggest YoY increase since June 2022. After a brief hiatus, money printing is back. https://t.co/bnnPEsB9x6
Dollar Rally Stalls at 100, Bulls at Crossroads
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Rally Fails at 100 – Bulls Face Decision Point https://t.co/0qMDRVx9to $DXY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/fcyIgceNQF
The FX Market Does Not Trade the Day It Trades the Clock
The piece contends that foreign‑exchange trading occurs in distinct liquidity pockets rather than a steady stream. Critical windows are the Tokyo 8:55 AM fix, the 7:00 AM London open, the 4:00 PM London WMR fix, and month‑end balance‑sheet rebalancing, each offering a unique...
DXY Volatility Hits 9‑Month High, Range Contracts
Volatility on the $DXY Dollar Index keeps has climbed to a 9 month high - when measured by the 20-day ATR. Meanwhile, the 20-day range has leveled out and contracted. So, scenarios: either volatility drops to accommodate range or breakout...
US Yield Rise Threatens Debt Spiral Amid Oil Tensions
Update: 10y UST yields (blue, RS1) USDJPY*oil (red, LS) USDCNY*oil (green, RS2) Hormuz is still closed; China still has several years of oil inventories; 10y UST yields are ~20-30 bps from triggering a US & global debt spiral. What happens first? Let's watch. https://t.co/ixdOHnatCg
Australian Inflation Data Due Wednesday, March 25, 2026. Preview.
Westpac projects Australia’s February CPI to rise 0.1% month‑on‑month, keeping the annual rate at 3.8% for a third straight month. Underlying inflation measured by the trimmed mean is expected at 0.3% m/m and 3.4% y/y, indicating persistent price pressures. The...
Dollar Reserves Stalled This Decade After Prior Surge
The thing is -- There has been NO dollar reserve accumulation in aggregate over the last ten years. And there was a ton of dollar reserve accumulation during the preceding 10ys (way more than needed for precautionary purposes) https://t.co/GGry0kCOk2
Global Markets Follow a Predictable Daily Playbook
Every single trading day the market runs the same playbook 🌏 Asia → builds the range 🇬🇧 London → makes the move 🇺🇸 New York → continues or reverses Register for our FREE class 👇 Saturday March 28th 7am ET / 11 GMT https://t.co/fn6x49CI6W https://t.co/S1azseaO9G
Japan’s Soft Inflation Is Temporary and Won’t Alter BoJ’s Rate Hike Cycle
Japan’s February consumer‑price inflation slowed to 1.3% YoY, driven by lower fresh‑food and utility costs, while core‑core inflation stayed near 2.5% above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Wage negotiations indicate a 5.26% average increase, and PMI readings remain in...
DXY‑Oil Pair Hides Slow Margin Tax
$DXY firm + oil firm is the combo nobody wants to model. It’s a slow tax on margins that shows up AFTER the ‘soft landing’ victory lap. https://t.co/ocSH3ICv0N
Volatility Controllers Push Rates Down, New Acronyms Loom
This chart really says it all from Torsten Slock. The volatility controllers will do anything in their power to get these rates down or things could really snowball in the wrong direction. Can't wait to see what acronyms come out of the...
Israeli Shekel Holds Above NIS 3/$, Highlighting Resilience Amid Conflict
The Israeli shekel remains above NIS 3 per U.S. dollar, its strongest post‑war level, driven by defense contracts, natural‑gas exports and high‑tech capital. At the same time, dozens of ancient shekel coins were seized in a smuggling bust, underscoring the currency’s...
Ukraine's Central Bank Boosts FX Intervention by 29.6% to $1.34 Bn
The National Bank of Ukraine increased its foreign‑exchange market intervention by 29.6%, reaching $1.34 bn. The move seeks to curb hryvnia depreciation, support inflation targets and signal resilience despite ongoing conflict.
Venezuela's Bolivar Plummets 86%, Dollarization Needed
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by 86% against the USD over the past year. The only thing that will salvage Venezuela is DOLLARIZATION. https://t.co/HsoegSMSO1
Baht Set to Fall Further Amid Mideast Wartime Pressures
Thailand’s baht is projected to weaken further, potentially reaching 33.5 per U.S. dollar this week as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify. The dollar’s safe‑haven appeal and rising U.S. bond yields are bolstering its strength, while regional currencies slide...
Dollar Reserve Growth Didn't Fund US Deficit
I spend a lot of time tracking dollar reserve growth. Probably more time than anyone at the Fund. And I absolutely believe that the surge in reserve growth contributed to the rise in imbalances before the...
Parsi Explains Rial’s 12% Surge Amid US‑Israel Conflict
Johns Hopkins PhD Trita Parsi is on to something. What Parsi reports helps explain why the Iranian Rial has soared by 12% against the USD during the first 3 weeks of the US-Israel war on Iran.
Ray Dalio’s Gold Playbook: Why He Now Sees Bullion as “The Safest Money”
Ray Dalio told the World Governments Summit in Dubai that the global monetary system is entering a "capital war" and that gold is now the safest form of money. He linked the erosion of fiat currencies and sovereign debt to...
BoE's MPC Scenario Guidance Will Become a Chaotic Puzzle
Scenario guidance is going to take some getting used to. Especially when the BoE gets hold of it, and each member of the MPC sets out their own different scenarios (3 scenarios each, 9 members) 🤣
New 2026 Rate Outlook Recalibrated From Hormuz to DC
Latest episode of our Trading Global Macro Podcast: From Hormuz to Washington DC: Recalibrating the 2026 Rate Outlook https://t.co/SWQ3mEPyhx
UBS Curbs Sale of Some FX Products to Swiss Clients After Losses
UBS Group AG has been barred from offering range target profit forwards (RTPFs) to Swiss retail clients after the products caused deep losses for a small group of investors last year. The bank now limits RTPFs to professional investors and...
War Hopes Nudge Fed Futures Toward Tiny Cut
The hope of a short-end to the war on Iran sees the Fed funds futures market swing back to a (small chance) of a cut this year--2 bp--. It was around 7 bp of tightening before the weekend and 61...
U.S. Backstop Rescues Nations Facing Currency Crises
It's amazing what getting backstopped by the U.S. can do for a nation with a currency crisis.
Strong Dollar, High Oil Trigger Emerging Market Crisis
India rupee: 94/USD. Rs 80,000 crore of foreign capital pulled from India in March alone. DXY near 100. Oil at $112. That combination is an emerging market wrecking ball. Few understand this. https://t.co/urDfdNX6YF
1990 Fed Warned of Dollar Risk After Kuwait Invasion
funny how things change. This is how Fed staff assessed the risks to dollar after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 https://t.co/XydwiGbPI5