Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
Baby Boomer Spending Helps Drive up Inflation
Australia’s Reserve Bank highlighted an unexpected surge in private demand, driven largely by heightened household spending from the baby‑boomer cohort. The increase in consumer‑durable price growth reinforced this trend, prompting the RBA to raise the official cash rate by 0.25%. Household consumption, which accounts for roughly half of GDP, surged in the December quarter, underpinning the policy decision. The move reflects the central bank’s effort to temper inflationary pressures linked to demographic‑driven demand.
USD/JPY Is Looking for Direction Around 153.00 with Key US Data in Focus
USD/JPY is hovering around the 153.00 level as traders await key US data. The pair was rejected at the 153.70 resistance, found support near 152.70, and settled back near 153.00. Weak Japanese Q4 GDP, which fell short of forecasts, kept...
Global Fiat Fears Boost Gold and USD Stablecoins
Wrong. Vast majority of gold buyers have been non Americans that are more worried that their own fiat currencies will lose value than they are about the USD losing value. And while foreign CBs purchased around $100B of gold...
North Korean Won Plummets, Ranks Third Worst Globally
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 3RD WORST currency. The won has depreciated by 41% against the USD over the past year. PLIGHT OF THE WON = ONE OF THE WORLD’S MOST UNREPORTED STORIES. https://t.co/7leiebPd5D
LSEG Partners with Bank of America to Unlock Next Generation Data, Analytics and AI Ready Content for Clients
London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) and Bank of America have entered a multi‑year partnership to embed LSEG’s data, analytics and workflow solutions across BofA’s platforms. The deal gives BofA clients governed, rights‑cleared data and AI‑ready content, powered by LSEG Workspace,...
ECB Favors High-Debt Nations, Sidelining Low-Debt Germany
Low-debt countries like Germany are hopelessly outnumbered at the ECB. That's why ECB policy is inexorably drifting to help high-debt countries at the expense of low debt ones. So no surprise BuBa President Nagel supports Eurobonds. Going with the flow......
UK Unemployment Surge Drives Sterling Lower Amid Pay Stagnation
UK Unemployment Rises and Private Pay Increases Slow to Five-Year Lows, Pulling Sterling Lower: The US dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies. A healthy reception to Japan’s five-year bond auction helped extend the rally in JGBs, and despite the…...
TNS Upgrades TNS Data Usage Optimizer with Launch of Interactive Customer Portal
Transaction Network Services (TNS) has upgraded its Data Usage Optimizer (DUO) with an interactive customer portal, giving buy‑side and sell‑side firms direct, on‑demand access to cost‑analysis tools. The portal transforms raw vendor entitlement files into actionable dashboards that pinpoint unused...
Weak UK Data, German Outlook Boost USD, Lift JPY
Disappointing UK jobs data and German ZEW expectations is helping the $USD extend its gains today. Robust reception to Japan's 5yr bond sales helped ignite JGB rally and lifted the $JPY. Softer US rates and heavier equities after US holiday....
38% Expect Warsh Chair to Push Yields Higher, Dollar Lower
"38% of FMS investors believe that, all else equal, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair will likely lead to higher US Treasury yields and a lower US dollar." - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey https://t.co/5m0L3ZjRg1
Philip R Lane: Bulgaria and the Euro
Philip R. Lane praised Bulgaria’s smooth euro cash changeover, noting that euros now represent 70 percent of cash in circulation as the dual‑lev/euro period ends on 31 January 2026. The speech highlighted Bulgaria’s new seat at the ECB Governing Council, giving the country a...
Christine Lagarde: Preparing for Geoeconomic Fragmentation
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that deepening supply‑chain interdependence now poses a security risk, prompting Europe to shift toward strategic autonomy. She outlined three policy levers—diversification, indispensability and independence—to reduce reliance on distant suppliers, especially in electronics, chemicals...
Quad3 Dynamics Active on Dollar up, Gold Down
Correlation Math #Quad3 Dynamics very much in play on a Dollar Up (Gold Down) morning https://t.co/QACdjs8zu2
Olaf Sleijpen: Repairing the Vending Machine - How the Savings and Investment Union Is Key to Europe's Future
Olaf Sleijpen, governor of De Nederlandsche Bank, highlighted Europe’s €10 trillion of low‑yield household deposits and the need to channel them into productive capital markets through the Savings and Investment Union. He warned that fragmented insolvency regimes and national rules act...
Piero Cipollone: The Digital Euro - Strengthening Europe's Payments Ecosystem
In a speech in Nicosia, ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone presented the digital euro as a cornerstone for Europe’s payment autonomy, security and competitiveness. He emphasized the ECB’s readiness to issue retail central‑bank digital money while maintaining wholesale settlement...
Philip N Jefferson: Economic Outlook and Supply-Side (Dis)inflation Dynamics
Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson said he is cautiously optimistic about the U.S. economy, noting a 4.4% annualized GDP surge in Q3 2025 and a modest 2.2% growth outlook for 2026. The labor market appears balanced with unemployment hovering near 4.4%...
Kazuyuki Masu: Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan
Kazuyuki Masu, a Bank of Japan policy board member, highlighted that U.S. auto tariffs rose to 12.5% in 2025, pressuring Japanese car exporters. He noted that the yen’s depreciation has partially offset the earnings hit for automakers. Masu added that...
Ida Wolden Bache: Economic Perspectives
Ida Wolden Bache, governor of Norges Bank, delivered her annual address on 12 February 2026, warning that geopolitical power plays and rapid AI advances are reshaping the economic landscape. She cited Mark Carney’s view that economic integration is being used...
Overseas and E-Commerce Payments to Be Made Easier in Ethiopia
The National Bank of Ethiopia announced sweeping foreign‑exchange reforms, letting exporters retain 100% of their foreign‑currency earnings in designated accounts and permitting banks to issue payment cards linked to those accounts. The minimum $100 requirement for foreign‑exchange savings accounts has...
Stablecoins Gain Ground for Paychecks and Daily Spending: BVNK Report
A BVNK‑commissioned YouGov survey of 4,658 crypto‑savvy adults across 15 countries shows that 39% receive income in stablecoins and 27% use them for everyday payments, attracted by lower fees and faster cross‑border transfers. Respondents hold an average of $200 in...
China’s Digital Yuan and the Fight for Southeast Asia’s Financial Infrastructure
China is accelerating the rollout of its interest‑bearing digital yuan (e‑CNY) across Southeast Asia, launching cross‑border pilots such as the China‑Laos settlement system and expanding access through commercial banks. The People’s Bank of China’s new management framework aims to turn...
BofA Survey Flags Dollar Bearish Bets at over a Decade High. Here's What It Means for Bitcoin
Bank of America’s February survey shows investor exposure to the U.S. dollar is at its most bearish since early 2012, marking a record underweight stance. Historically, a weaker dollar has acted as a bullish tailwind for bitcoin, but since early...
Yen Rises Slightly as JGB Auction Passes Test
The yen edged higher in thin Asian trading as the Japanese currency modestly strengthened. The latest five‑year JGB auction posted a bid‑to‑cover ratio of 3.10, the first rise since September, indicating easing election‑related stress. RBA minutes reinforced a tightening bias...
China Shifts Reserves to State Banks, Boosts Returns
Beijing really just outsourced its reserves to its state banks, and shifted out of US custodians High return on investment tho. Tons of folks swallow the fall in reported Treasury holdings hook, line and sinker https://t.co/MKw3EJlSuR
China's Hidden Bank Interventions Hit $800B Annual Record
The annualized measures of Chinese intervention over the last 3ms that capture backdoor intervention by the state banks are at all time highs in dollar terms -- over $200b a quarter/ over $800b annualized https://t.co/7vlh3tf4CX
New Zealand’s Housing Crash Restores Affordability
New Zealand’s housing market has entered a sharp correction, with the REINZ house‑price index falling 0.6% month‑on‑month and 16.2% from its early‑2022 peak, equating to a 30% real‑terms loss since 2019. Mortgage rates have dropped to pre‑pandemic levels after the...
US Dollar Positioning Hits Record Underweight in Bank of America Survey
Bank of America’s FX sentiment survey shows net US dollar exposure at a record underweight, the most negative level since the survey began in January 2012. Short positions have surged to extreme levels, surpassing the lows recorded in April 2023....
Iranian Rial Plummets, Becomes World's Second Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Iranian rial ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST currency. The rial has depreciated by 44% against the USD over the past year. RIAL = THE GREAT DESTABILIZER. https://t.co/06OiclsaSq
BOJ Likely to Raise Rates 25bp April, Former Board Member Says. Gradual Move Toward 1.25%
Former Bank of Japan board member Seiji Adachi says the central bank is most likely to raise rates in April rather than March, waiting for clearer wage and inflation data. The BOJ’s December hike to 0.75% marked the first move...
ICYMI: China to Remove Tariffs on Imports From 53 African Nations From May 1
China will eliminate tariffs on imports from 53 African nations starting May 1, 2026, expanding the preferential regime beyond the continent’s least‑developed economies. The zero‑tariff policy applies to every African country that maintains diplomatic ties with Beijing and is paired with a...
FX Option Expiries for 17 February 10am New York Cut
Investors received the FX option expiry list for 17 February 10 am New York cut, detailing strike levels and notional amounts across major pairs. EUR/USD options total roughly €2.6 billion at strikes 1.1900, 1.2000 and 1.2025. USD/JPY carries about $2.86 billion at 156.00 and 151.00,...
Soft Landing Looks More Plausible, but the Fed Isn’t Ready to Call It Done.
U.S. macro data are aligning for a potential soft landing, with core CPI easing to 2.5% year‑over‑year and unemployment slipping to 4.3% in January. While inflation is moving toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, the Fed’s preferred gauge remains near...
Germany‘s Central Bank President Touts Stablecoin and CBDC Benefits for EU
Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel endorsed the creation of a euro‑pegged retail CBDC and euro‑denominated stablecoins, arguing they would strengthen Europe’s payment independence. He highlighted that a wholesale CBDC would allow programmable payments in central‑bank money. Nagel warned that a surge...
Gold Overtakes Major Currencies as Dollar Reserve Share Plummets
⚠️The US Dollar's role in global reserves is FALLING: USD share in global currency reserves dropped to ~40%, the lowest in at least 25 years. This is down from ~58% a decade ago. During the same period, gold’s share has risen from 16%...
Venezuelan Bolivar Plummets 87%, Becomes World’s Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 87% against the USD in the past year. IT’S TIME TO DUMP THE BOLIVAR AND REPLACE IT WITH THE US DOLLAR. https://t.co/dHtPzNew81
AUD/USD Flat Amid US Dollar Strength, RBA Minutes Eyed
The Australian dollar held near 0.7072 against the U.S. dollar on Monday as a firmer greenback limited upside. The pair slipped from three‑year highs of 0.7147 after U.S. CPI showed inflation easing to 2.4% and unemployment edging down to 4.3%,...
Eurogroup Sets 2026 Priorities, Boosts Euro’s Global Role
Back in Brussels today for the #Eurogroup meeting, where we discussed: 🔹 euro area policy priorities for 2026 🔹 the international role of the euro https://t.co/FAa7OvZiMt
Plus500 CEO, CFO, CMO to Sell 1.5M Shares
Plus500’s chief executive, chief financial officer and chief marketing officer announced the sale of 1,500,000 ordinary shares, representing roughly 2.14% of the company’s issued capital. The transaction will be executed on the secondary market through Goldman Sachs International, with Panmure...
China's Surplus Doesn't Directly Boost US Treasury Holdings
Two things are simultaneously true -- a) China's surplus doesn't automatically flow into its fx reserves and then into Treasuries and Agencies b) China's large ongoing surplus (+ the increase in fx assets of the state banks) cautions against using the...
Foreign Central Banks Sell USTs Even as Dollar Weakens
One of a number of potentially important macro divergences that occurred in 2H25 is shown below. For the prior 10+ years, foreign Central Banks sold USTs when the USD rose and bought USTs when the USD fell. In 2H25, foreign CB’s sold...
RBI Issues Draft Norms for Reporting on Forex Derivative Transactions Involving Rupee
The Reserve Bank of India released draft norms requiring Authorised Dealer Category‑I banks to report all rupee‑denominated foreign‑exchange derivative transactions undertaken by their related parties worldwide. This follows earlier steps that mandated primary dealers and banks to disclose rupee interest‑rate...
Trading Week Signals Fed Cut Outlook for 2026
New trading week = big clues for rates 👀 Futures up, gold down, dollar strong… what is the market betting on for Fed cuts in 2026? Fed speakers, FOMC minutes, global data & a surprise risk event ahead Watch the video before you...
India’s Game-Changing Digital Money Model
India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) has become the world’s largest real‑time payments network, handling billions of free transactions daily. Built on a public, open‑source infrastructure managed by the National Payments Corporation of India, UPI lets banks, fintechs and merchants interoperate...
EUREP Expansion and the Euro – Going Global
The European Central Bank announced that, from the third quarter of 2026, it will expand its EUREP euro repo facility to a global €50 billion line available to any central bank that meets AML and sanctions criteria. The repo offers euro...
Euro's Neglect Highlights Geopolitical Weakness
We live in a beggar-thy-neighbor world. Everyone is trying to get their currencies down except for the Euro zone, another symptom of geopolitical weakness. While everyone else is managing their currencies down, the Euro is suffering from benign neglect... https://t.co/QpUo91Xcq2 https://t.co/7qByDtUMFN
Dollar Gains Strength Over G10 Amid Low FX Turnover
In subdued foreign exchange turnover, the dollar enjoys a firmer bias against most G10 currencies amid on broadly consolidative tone. https://t.co/cyTShaySWO
Forex Today: Japanese GDP Data Underwhelms
Japan’s Q4 GDP expanded only 0.1% YoY, well below the 0.4% consensus, nudging the economy away from a technical recession but dampening reflation hopes. The weak data erased much of the yen’s recent 3% rally sparked by the new government’s...
Euro Holds 1.1850 Amid 1.3bn Options Expiry
Note that there are 1.3 bln euro options at $1.1850 that expire today. The $euro just tested the strike and it held.
Prepare Today, Win This Week's Trades
Markets closed today… which means PERFECT time to prepare and talk about the week ahead The traders who win this week are already preparing today. ⏰ Join us LIVE at 8:45AM ET Learn. Prepare. Trade. Because the market rewards the prepared 👇 https://t.co/m6ZWYcjupv
FX Steadies as JPY Slips on Weak Data
US and China's mainland markets are closed today. The FX market is calmer and most G10 currencies are little changed. $JPY is the notable exception as disappointing data weighs on it. See https://t.co/cyTShaySWO https://t.co/ZB9uMP7xUC