Scaramucci Declares U.S. Economy Already in Recession, Citing Middle‑Class Strain
Former White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci told Business Insider the United States is already in a recession, pointing to flat growth, falling middle‑class spending and lingering energy shocks. His assessment adds a high‑profile voice to a growing chorus of economists warning of an imminent downturn.
New York Fed President Williams Worries War Will Slow Growth, Aggravate Inflation
New York Fed President John Williams warned that the ongoing Iran war is already nudging U.S. prices higher while dampening economic growth. He highlighted rising energy costs and broader supply‑chain pressures that could trigger a stagflation‑like environment. Williams reaffirmed the Fed’s...
Fed's Williams: Seeing Emerging Signs of Supply Chain Disruptions
New York Fed President John Williams warned that the Middle East conflict is already adding to inflation and that new supply‑chain disruptions are re‑emerging. He said monetary policy remains well‑positioned, leaving rates unchanged for now. Williams projects inflation at 2.75‑3%...
Initial Jobless Claims Fall 11,000 to 207,000
"In the week ending April 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level."
US Initial Jobless Claims 207K vs 215K Expected
U.S. initial unemployment claims dropped to 207,000, comfortably beating the 215,000 forecast and marking a decline from last week’s revised 218,000. The four‑week moving average steadied at 209.75 K, signaling a still‑tight labor market despite seasonal noise. Continuing claims rose modestly...
US April Philly Fed Business Index +26.7 vs +10.0 Expected
The Philadelphia Fed’s March manufacturing survey posted a robust index of +26.7, far outpacing the +10.0 forecast. New orders surged to 33.0 and shipments rose to 34.0, marking the strongest activity in months. However, the employment component slipped into negative...
Fed's Rate‑Cut Dilemma: Weak Economy vs Rising Inflation
Normally a weaker economy might lead the Fed to cut rates. But if inflation is also rising, rate cuts risk adding fuel to the price problem. Two goals, one instrument, lousy trade-off.
Treasury Secretary Bessent Forecasts 3%‑plus US Growth Amid Inflation Concerns
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a Washington audience that the U.S. economy remains strong enough to grow beyond 3% in 2026, despite higher oil prices and global inflation risks. His upbeat outlook clashes with recent IMF downgrades and rising energy...
Trump Threatens to Fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell Again, Heightening Political Clash
Former President Donald Trump announced on April 15 that he will fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell if the Senate does not confirm a successor by May 15. The threat comes amid a DOJ probe of a $2.5 billion Fed renovation...
March 2026 Rental Report: Renting Beats Buying in All 50 Major U.S. Metros — and the Savings Gap May Be...
The March 2026 Rental Report shows a 32‑month streak of year‑over‑year rent declines across the 50 largest U.S. metros, with the national median asking rent falling to $1,669, 1.5% lower than a year ago but still 17.5% above pre‑pandemic levels. Renting...
Record Buffett Indicator Flags Historic U.S. Market Overvaluation
The Warren Buffett Indicator just hit its highest level in history, signalling the most overvalued U.S. stock market on record. This is why Buffett is holding nearly $400 billion in cash much of it in Treasuries and now owns...
Fed Leadership Uncertain After Trump's Threat to Fire Powell
If no chair is confirmed by May 15, who leads the Fed? The Fed and the White House seem to have very different answers—a suddenly live dispute after Trump’s latest threat to fire Powell. It’s a question that a 28-year-old John Roberts...
Bipartisan Tax‑Cut Push Gains Traction in Congress, Raising Stakes for Wealth Managers
A coalition of Republican and Democratic lawmakers is intensifying a bipartisan effort to lower federal and local taxes, targeting bracket creep, property taxes, and IRS modernization. The push, described as a response to post‑pandemic inflation and rising living costs, could...
Consumer Sentiment Plummets Even as Retail Sales Surge
Consumer sentiment just hit a record low while retail sales are running the hottest they've been in over two years. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/gH4ALHEYBO
INFLATION BREAKEVENS HAVE NOT COLLAPSED!
The author argues that 12‑month inflation breakevens have not collapsed, despite social media chatter linking a recent equity rally to a dramatic drop in inflation expectations. Recent Treasury data shows the 1‑year breakeven rate hovering around 3.0%, essentially unchanged from...
