Economist Mark Zandi Flags Fragile U.S. Economy Amid 1% Spending Growth and Geopolitical Risks
Economist Mark Zandi warned Sunday that the U.S. economy is becoming increasingly fragile, citing barely 1% annualized consumer spending growth and heightened geopolitical risks. He cautioned that stalled job growth, low savings rates and looming war‑related headwinds could push the economy toward recession.
Fed Demands Detailed Private‑Credit Data From Top Banks, Targeting $1.8 T Market
The Federal Reserve has asked America’s largest banks to submit detailed information on their private‑credit holdings, a move aimed at gauging stress in the $1.8 trillion private‑credit market. The request follows a wave of redemptions from private‑credit funds and rising defaults,...
Housing Bust May Fuel Fed’s Push for Productivity Boom
One interesting cross-current in the mkt is watching the top of the housing market and the commensurate generational drag it could have on inflation. This bust could be the political capital the Fed needs to easy into a productivity boom. Notice...
US March Home Sales Drop 3.6%, Exceed Forecast
The @wsj on the US housing market: "Home sales declined 3.6% in March, getting the crucial spring selling season off to a poor start as the high cost of housing and economic uncertainty held buyers back.... The 3.6% month over month decline...
How Inflation Is Going to Impact Mortgage Rates
In the latest HousingWire Daily podcast, editor-in-chief Sarah Wheeler and lead analyst Logan Mohtashai examine how the March CPI jump to 3.3%—driven primarily by higher energy costs—will shape Federal Reserve policy and mortgage rates. They explain that persistent inflation could...
The Closer – Fedspeak, Housing Affordability, Positioning – 4/13/26
The Federal Reserve’s recent commentary has turned noticeably more hawkish, a shift that historically dampens forward equity returns. At the same time, mortgage rates have rebounded to roughly 6.5%, squeezing housing affordability. Existing‑home sales have slumped to their lowest level...
Alcohol Drinks Count in CPI Core, Not PCE Core
Today I learned that alcholic beverages are part of "commodities less food and energy commodities" in the CPI but not in "PCE goods excluding food and energy"
USD/CAD Stalls Near 1.3840 as Oil Spikes and Fed Hawkishness Offset Each Other
USD/CAD traded around 1.3840 on Monday, caught between a near‑7% jump in WTI crude that supports the Canadian dollar and persistent expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve that buoy the U.S. dollar. The tug‑of‑war left the pair essentially flat...
Economy Likely Faces Just Temporary Setback From Iran War: Survey
A Wolters Kluwer survey of corporate economists finds 59% expect the inflation surge from the Iran war to be short‑lived, projecting 2.2% U.S. GDP growth this year. Yet the conflict has nudged recession odds to 35% for the next 12 months...
Higher Oil Prices Need Weak Labor Market to Spare Inflation
We have had elevated oil prices before without much impact on core inflation, but back in 2011-2014, the labor market was softer, and wage growth was much lower with lower nominal growth https://t.co/sgut5B2XBG
Fed Holds Policy Rate at 3.5%-3.75% as Inflation Stays Near 3.3% Amid Oil Shock
The Federal Reserve kept its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5%‑3.75% after March CPI showed a 3.3% year‑over‑year increase. Traders now see a 97% chance of another hold at the April 28 meeting, while energy‑price volatility from...
Americans Hate the 2026 Economy
Despite solid macro indicators—4.3% unemployment, 3.3% inflation, flat S&P 500 and steady GDP growth—Americans remain overwhelmingly negative about the economy. A preliminary April 2026 University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to its lowest level since the survey began in...
US Deficit Not Caused by Dollar, Says Obstfeld
Don't blame America's current account deficit on the dollar Hugely important NEW essay by Maury Obstfeld @PIIE ahead of this week's G7/G20 global imbalances focus. https://t.co/sWxu77W2qk
2025 Regional and State-Level GDP Data
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that U.S. real GDP grew 2.1% in 2025, marking a modest expansion after stronger prior years. Every state posted positive growth, but the pace varied widely, from a 3.1% increase in Florida and South...
Fed Still Plans Rate Cuts Despite Geopolitical Uncertainty
I predicted in a couple interviews the Fed will LOWER interest rates this year, not raise them. Now March minutes show... "Federal Reserve officials still expect to lower interest rates this year, even with high uncertainty from the Iran war and...
Current Uses and Unmet Needs of Federal Economic Statistics
The Brookings Institution’s Economic Indicators Initiative released a paper outlining current uses and gaps in the Federal Statistical System (FSS). The system, which costs less than 0.1% of the federal budget, fuels Social Security inflation adjustments, retail inventory decisions, and...
