Fed's Williams: Seeing Emerging Signs of Supply Chain Disruptions
New York Fed President John Williams warned that the Middle East conflict is already adding to inflation and that new supply‑chain disruptions are re‑emerging. He said monetary policy remains well‑positioned, leaving rates unchanged for now. Williams projects inflation at 2.75‑3% this year, easing to 2% by 2027, GDP growth of 2‑2.5% in 2026, and unemployment steady at 4.25‑4.5%.
US Initial Jobless Claims 207K vs 215K Expected
U.S. initial unemployment claims dropped to 207,000, comfortably beating the 215,000 forecast and marking a decline from last week’s revised 218,000. The four‑week moving average steadied at 209.75 K, signaling a still‑tight labor market despite seasonal noise. Continuing claims rose modestly...
US April Philly Fed Business Index +26.7 vs +10.0 Expected
The Philadelphia Fed’s March manufacturing survey posted a robust index of +26.7, far outpacing the +10.0 forecast. New orders surged to 33.0 and shipments rose to 34.0, marking the strongest activity in months. However, the employment component slipped into negative...
INFLATION BREAKEVENS HAVE NOT COLLAPSED!
The author argues that 12‑month inflation breakevens have not collapsed, despite social media chatter linking a recent equity rally to a dramatic drop in inflation expectations. Recent Treasury data shows the 1‑year breakeven rate hovering around 3.0%, essentially unchanged from...
Fed Beige Book Highlights
The Fed’s Beige Book released on April 15 shows a patchwork of regional activity: New York and Boston districts slipped into slight contraction, while Cleveland, Richmond and Atlanta posted modest growth and other districts were flat or only slightly positive. Across the...
Beige Book Confirms Uncertainty, Fuel Costs Surged On Iran War As Economy Grew At "Slight To Modest" Pace
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book shows U.S. economic activity expanding at a slight‑to‑modest pace, but the Iran‑Israel conflict has driven fuel prices above $4 per gallon and heightened uncertainty. Eight of the twelve districts reported modest growth, while Boston and...
Tax Freedom Day Underestimates How Long You Work For The Government
Tax Freedom Day, the date when Americans have earned enough to cover federal taxes, landed on April 16, 2025 according to the Tax Foundation’s last calculation. Economists argue that this metric understates the true fiscal burden because it ignores government spending that...
Interview with Ellen McGrattan: Business Cycles and Intangible Capital
Interview with Ellen McGrattan, a leading macroeconomist at the Richmond Fed, highlights her adoption of the Kydland‑Prescott model‑data matching approach to study business cycles and total factor productivity. She explains how intangibles—customer lists, trademarks, recipes—are omitted from balance sheets, creating a...
US Homebuilder Depression Enters Second Year
The NAHB builder‑mood index fell to 34, a seven‑month low and the 24th straight month below the optimism threshold. The slump follows the Federal Reserve’s aggressive inflation‑fighting measures and is compounded by the Iran war, rising energy costs, and weak...
Against the Odds: US Is Relatively Resilient Despite Global Turmoil
Despite heightened policy uncertainty, trade barriers and a war in the Middle East, the U.S. economy remains on a growth path. Real‑time indicators such as the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index (2.7% YoY) and the Johnson Redbook Index show solid...
The Daily Feather — People-Watching Main Street
The Daily Feather uses a people‑watching metaphor to dissect four charts that track small‑business revenue, employment, loan activity, and digital adoption across the United States from 2005 to 2026. The data reveal a 45% rise in revenue per employee, a...
Fed Report Shows Trump Tariffs Prevented Trump From Meeting Inflation Goals
A Federal Reserve report found that Trump‑era tariffs added roughly 0.8% to overall U.S. prices and were responsible for the entire excess core‑goods inflation observed in 2025. The analysis shows tariffs kept inflation above the pre‑pandemic 2% target, undermining the...
Former Fed Chair Yellen Sees One Fed Cut Possible as Iran-Driven Inflation Clouds Outlook.
Janet Yellen, former Fed chair and current Treasury secretary, said a single Federal Reserve rate cut could still occur later in 2024 despite heightened inflation risks from the Iran‑driven energy shock. She noted that short‑term inflation expectations have edged higher...
The Closer – Reasons for Optimism, PPI, BDCs – 4/14/26
Truck orders surged 211% year‑over‑year in the three months ending February, underscoring robust demand for commercial vehicles before the war. ADP reported 157,000 private‑sector jobs added in the week to March 27, the strongest weekly hiring stretch on record. Yet consumer...
GDP Projections: One of These Is Not Like the Others
The latest chart juxtaposes U.S. real GDP growth forecasts from the Biden administration, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, the Wall Street Journal poll, the Fed’s GDPNow model, and Goldman Sachs. The administration’s projection, built on...
