1979 Again
John H. Cochrane notes that the newest consumer‑price index (CPI) data places inflation back at levels reminiscent of the late 1970s. He updates a side‑by‑side chart comparing 1972‑1981 inflation with the 2019‑2026 period, highlighting both similarities and key differences. While price pressures have re‑emerged, the monetary‑policy framework and fiscal backdrop differ markedly from the era of stagflation. Cochrane asks whether the comparison is fair, given today’s tighter labor market and more credible central banking.
US 10-Year Yield Risk Premium Continues To Rise
The market premium on the U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield has widened further as the Iran‑Israel conflict and heightened inflation risk push the yield above its fair‑value estimate. A May update shows the risk premium continuing its upward trajectory, confirming a...
The US Treasury to Auction 10 Year Notes. Why Is It so Important?
The U.S. Treasury will auction $39 billion of 10‑year notes, with the current yield at 4.534%. The previous auction set the yield at 4.468%, while the yield has fluctuated between 3.926% and 4.687% since the war began in February. A bid‑to‑cover...
Nowcast Data Suggest US Growth Is Accelerating In Q2
Nowcast models released in early June indicate that U.S. real GDP growth is picking up in the second quarter, revising the pace upward from earlier estimates. The acceleration appears to be driven by stronger consumer spending and a rebound in...
US International Trade Balance for April -$55.9B vs -$56.1B Estimate
The United States posted an April trade deficit of $55.9 billion, modestly better than the $56.1 billion forecast. Exports rose 2.6% to $327.1 billion, while imports increased 2.0% to $383.0 billion, narrowing the goods deficit by $2.4 billion. The services surplus slipped to $27.8 billion, offsetting...
InvestingLive Americas FX News Wrap 5 Jun:A Strong US Jobs Report Sends Bonds/Stocks Lower
U.S. non‑farm payrolls jumped 172,000 in May, far exceeding the 85,000 forecast, while Canada added 87,800 jobs, pushing its unemployment rate to 6.6%. The surprise strength lifted Treasury yields, with the 2‑year rate climbing to 4.15% and the 10‑year to...
U.S. Hiring Crushes Expectations With Third Straight Month Of Growth
The U.S. labor market posted a third consecutive month of solid job growth in May, adding 172,000 nonfarm payrolls and keeping the unemployment rate at 4.3%. Revised figures lifted March and April gains by a combined 93,000 jobs, far exceeding...
Large Upside NFP Employment Surprise and Business Cycle Indicators
The U.S. Labor Department reported May non‑farm payrolls (NFP) at a robust +172,000, more than double the Bloomberg consensus of +85,000. The 87,000‑job surprise eclipses the typical mean absolute revision of 53,000, underscoring an unexpectedly strong labor market. Upward revisions...
Strengthening Case for the Federal Reserve to Lift Interest Rates
The U.S. Labor Department reported a 172,000 increase in May non‑farm payrolls, more than double the consensus forecast, pushing the three‑month average to 188,000 jobs per month. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings slipped to...
Is GDP Failing to Capture AI?
A new policy brief from Anton Korinek and Patrick McKelvey estimates annual AI computing spend at roughly $250 billion, a figure that is fully captured in GDP. Yet AI hardware efficiency has driven compute capacity up more than 200% per year,...
U.S. Jobless Claims Hit Four-Month High While Productivity Growth Slows
U.S. initial unemployment claims rose to 225,000 for the week ended May 30, the highest level in four months, driven largely by the Memorial Day holiday effect. The four‑week moving average edged up to 214,750, still within the 190,000‑230,000 range...
US Hiring Quickest In Nearly Two Years, Alternative Metric Shows
The alternative hiring gauge from Revelio Labs reported 123,717 jobs added in May, the strongest monthly gain since July 2024 and more than double April's revised total. The surge was driven by public administration, construction, health care and social assistance,...
Why We Pay Attention to Personal Income Ex-Transfers (and Why We Wait for Revisions)
The BEA’s April release cut personal income excluding current transfers by roughly 0.5%, deepening the negative trajectory compared with disposable personal income. The downward adjustment is driven primarily by updated wage information from the QCEW and recent CES data, not...
Biggest Part Of US Economy Heats Up As Summer Nears
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services index rose to 54.5 in May, outpacing the 53.8 consensus forecast and marking the strongest reading since February. The price component surged to 71.3, reflecting heightened cost pressures across commodities and services. Meanwhile,...
Fed's Williams: I'm Not that Worried About Persistent Impacts on Inflation so Far
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Williams told investors that inflation will likely remain elevated through the rest of the year but is expected to peak in the next few months. He emphasized that current policy is appropriately calibrated, with no immediate...