The Market's Biggest Buyer May Be Disappearing
Retail investors, long the engine of market gains, are now cash‑strapped as credit‑card balances hit a record $1.25 trillion and delinquency rates rose to 13.1% in Q1, the highest in 15 years. Average credit‑card interest rates have surged to roughly 21%, while auto loans now average $43,952 with 19% of new loans requiring $1,000‑plus monthly payments. The personal savings rate has collapsed toward historic lows, leaving households dependent on debt to sustain spending. If rates stay elevated, consumer retrenchment could curtail the roughly 70% of U.S. GDP driven by consumer expenditure.
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: Coincident Index
The Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index, combined with a Bloomberg consensus on May ADP private payroll, points to continued economic expansion through April 2026. The index aligns with other gauges such as manufacturing output and real retail sales, suggesting a broad-based...
Fed's Paulson Says Healthy for Markets to Shift to Tighter Monetary Policy Outlook
Fed Governor Lisa Paulson said the central bank’s policy is now mildly restrictive and well‑positioned to bring inflation back toward target. She noted that inflation remains too high despite a slowdown in economic activity and that the labor market remains...
US April Wholesale Inventories +0.5% vs +0.8% Expected
U.S. wholesale inventories rose 0.5% in April, falling short of the 0.8% increase economists expected and down from a 1.3% gain in March. The data comes from the Census Bureau’s Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, which samples about 4,200 merchant‑wholesaler firms....
US April Advanced Goods Trade Balance -$82.40 Billion vs -$86.50 Billion Expected
The United States posted an advanced goods trade deficit of $82.4 billion in April, beating analysts’ expectation of $86.5 billion and improving from the prior estimate of $87.45 billion. Goods exports rose to $219.7 billion, up $8.5 billion from March, while imports increased to $302.1 billion,...
Inflation Hits 3.8% as GDP Slows and CNN Poll Shows Voters Turning on Trump over Rising Costs
U.S. first‑quarter 2026 GDP was revised down to a 1.6% annualized pace, below the previously reported 2.0% and expectations. Inflation accelerated, with the personal consumption expenditures index rising 3.8% year‑over‑year, the highest level since May 2023. Consumer spending growth slowed...
Eight Measures of the US Price Level
The latest chart of eight U.S. price indices shows headline CPI posting the smallest increase since January 2025, while the CPI for wage earners and the CPI excluding shelter have risen more rapidly. All series are plotted in logarithmic terms, using...
Personal Income, Corporate Profits
Recent BEA data show that both pretax and after‑tax personal income have declined, while consumption growth has decelerated. In the first quarter, after‑tax corporate profits, including inventory valuation adjustments and capital consumption allowances, fell 0.4% month‑over‑month, missing the 5.7% consensus...
Business Cycle Indicators: Personal Income Trending Down
The latest data show personal income excluding transfers fell 0.4% month‑over‑month and was revised lower, shifting the apparent income peak to September 2025. Both nonfarm payrolls and civilian employment are slowing, with ADP confirming the trend, while population‑adjusted series add...
On Second Thought…
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its second estimate for Q1 2026, trimming headline GDP growth to 1.6% annualized—0.4 percentage points below the advance reading. Personal consumption expenditures slowed to a 1.4% annualized gain, the weakest pace since Q1 2025,...
War-Torn: US Saving Rate Plunges As Annual Inflation Soars
U.S. inflation data for April showed mixed signals: core PCE rose 0.239% month‑over‑month, the slowest pace since November, while the year‑over‑year rate accelerated to 3.3%, the fastest since late 2023. Headline PCE increased 0.4% MoM and 3.8% YoY, the strongest...
One Key Signal Says Rate Hikes Could Be Coming
Bond markets are signaling a shift away from expected rate cuts toward possible further tightening. The spread between 5‑year and 30‑year Treasury yields compressed to 81 basis points, the narrowest in about a year, as short‑end yields climb. Traders now...
Measurement of “Computer Software and Accessories” Inflation
A sharp rise in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index’s “Computer Software and Accessories” category has drawn attention to structural market shifts and statistical quirks. Researchers estimate that a mismatch between the CPI and PCE baskets accounts for about...
ARIMA on Grocery Prices
Grocery‑at‑home CPI is climbing faster than the headline CPI, and a log‑scale chart shows the trajectory steepening from January to May 2026. The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) ARIMA model forecasts a 3.2% year‑over‑year rise in grocery prices for 2026,...
Key Events This Holiday-Shortened Week: PCE, Durables, Consumer Confidence And Fed Speakers
This week’s economic calendar is dominated by U.S. inflation data, with the April personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index slated for Thursday and a modest rise in durable‑goods orders expected. Fed officials, including Vice Chair Jefferson and Dallas President Logan,...