Initial Jobless Claims Fall 11,000 to 207,000
"In the week ending April 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level."
Fed Leadership Uncertain After Trump's Threat to Fire Powell
If no chair is confirmed by May 15, who leads the Fed? The Fed and the White House seem to have very different answers—a suddenly live dispute after Trump’s latest threat to fire Powell. It’s a question that a 28-year-old John Roberts...
Fed's Rate‑Cut Dilemma: Weak Economy vs Rising Inflation
Normally a weaker economy might lead the Fed to cut rates. But if inflation is also rising, rate cuts risk adding fuel to the price problem. Two goals, one instrument, lousy trade-off.
Record Buffett Indicator Flags Historic U.S. Market Overvaluation
The Warren Buffett Indicator just hit its highest level in history, signalling the most overvalued U.S. stock market on record. This is why Buffett is holding nearly $400 billion in cash much of it in Treasuries and now owns...
Consumer Sentiment Plummets Even as Retail Sales Surge
Consumer sentiment just hit a record low while retail sales are running the hottest they've been in over two years. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/gH4ALHEYBO
Foreign Share of US Treasury Demand Likely Overstated
The Largest Foreign Holders of US Treasury Securities and the “Basis Trade”: April 2026 Update. Foreign demand for the ballooning US Treasury debt is an increasingly important issue. But how much of that demand is actually “foreign?” https://t.co/qUbusfuVOx https://t.co/HYoQrWI8cP
Overtime Barely Rose, yet Remains Employer‑imposed
Overtime is up 0.1 hours over the last year https://t.co/PwOOy52yar More importantly, overtime is rarely voluntary for workers. The employer tells a worker they need to work late. But Bessent wouldn't know anything about that.
Higher GDP Buffers Developed Economies From Oil Shocks
It is not really a controversial statement When more GDP is produced or Energy Unit - the price of the energy unit becomes a little less relevant on a running basis The US economy (and other developed economies) can better...
2-Year Treasury Signals No Rate Cuts, Hikes Expected
The 2-year doesn't lie. It tracks Fed expectations closer than anything else in the market. And right now it's sitting above the Fed funds rate for the first time in a while. That's not pricing in rate cuts. That's pricing in rate...
Fed's Post‑War Policy: Cuts or Hikes?
Is the Fed gearing up for rate cuts or rate hikes after the war? https://t.co/rrlbTJ5MBC via @YouTube
White House‑Fed Tension Persists Beyond New Chair Appointment
Interviewer: Do you think the tension between the White House and the Fed goes away when Warsh becomes Chair. Me: No. It continues (form may change some) until the President backs off and lets the Fed do its job. And...
2026 Tax Refunds Rise, But Far Below Forecasts
NEW from me: The White House (and many economists) expected $700 to $1,000 higher refunds, on average. The reality is closer to $375. Bottom line: Yes, refunds are higher in 2026 (and likely to be the highest ever). But it's less...
Luxury Brand Slumps Signal Stagflation Ahead
This may have flown under the radar: Keep an eye on luxury brands starting to report weaker results. They’re often a leading indicator of what’s coming for the broader consumer. The current environment is deeply stagflationary. https://t.co/53453IX0Fd https://t.co/qvZM0cAjOO
Consumer Pessimism Stems From Perceived Price Pressures, Not Fundamentals
Excellent article attempting to explain why consumer sentiment is so bad (worst ever) while objective prices, wages, employement and economy are all fairly stable: "It's the prices, stupid" https://t.co/bqHARTz5JM
Rising Auto Repair Costs Signal Consumer Risk Amid Credit Strain
Wolf Street: "The CPI for motor vehicle maintenance and repairs jumped by 1.25% in March from February and by 6.1% year-over-year, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Since January 2020, those prices exploded by 50%." As I've travelled over...
