Cleveland Fed's Median and Trimmed CPI Outpace Core
In May, the Cleveland Fed's median and trimmed mean CPI measures rose 0.30% and 0.26%, respectively (both higher than 0.21% for core CPI) On a 12-month basis, the median CPI was 2.85%, the same as core CPI. The trimmed mean was 2.9%, up from 2.8% last month and 2.6% in March. https://t.co/GJtq3sx9k3
Rising CPI Undermines Fed’s Dovish Signal Ahead of FOMC
The Fed's dual mandate isn't sending a 'dovish' signal for the FOMC next week. Core CPI ticked up to 2.9% and headline accelerated to 4.2%. Kevin Warsh is going to have an interesting first meeting... https://t.co/M5GLQ5YmIn
May CPI Rises 0.5%, up 4.2% YoY
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, after rising 0.6% in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. https://t.co/iXeBfYPbKV Over the last 12 months, the all items index...
May Inflation Hits Expected Peaks, Core and Headline Rise
May Core #CPI prints at 2.9% as expected - previously 2.8% y/y Headline prints at 4.2% as expected- previously 3.8% y/y
2‑Year Yield Outpaces Fed Rate, Signaling No Cuts
Bond markets anticipated the Fed Notice the blue line (2-year Treasury yield). It began rising sharply in late 2021 while the Fed Funds Rate (red) was still near zero. Bond investors correctly anticipated large rate hikes before they happened. The Fed eventually caught up. Now...
Hot Economy, Geopolitics Fuel Inflation, Threaten IPO Momentum
Last week’s momentum-filled gains were abruptly reversed on Friday after the jobs report showed that the US economy is running quite hot while there is still no easy offramp from the conflict in Iran. Add them up and we get...
War Fuels Headline CPI Spike; Core Inflation Eases
May CPI estimates: Another hot headline print due to the war, but a milder core https://t.co/9ygRxNmfIy
Fed Cuts Rates While Stock Market Fuels Inflation
Duh, That Was Dump No risk in predicting the future, so here goes: Federal Reserve DTWD - Continuing to cut rates despite the stock market on a tear at more than 2x GDP, inflation above 2%, and rising T-bond yields signaling to stop -...
Real Rates Peak; Bond Market Plunge Signals Looming Policy Shift
The 2-year real interest rate has now climbed to its highest level since the Trump administration took office. At the same time, we are living through the deepest and longest drawdown in the history of the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index. We...
Rate‑rise Fears and AI Spend Spark Market Plunge
WSJ: "Fears of rising interest rates collided with worries about artificial-intelligence spending on Wall Street Friday, bringing an abrupt and painful end to weeks of gains and sending the Nasdaq composite to its worst day in more than a year.... The...
Robust May Jobs Data Sparks Market Sell‑Off
Strong May Jobs Report Triggers Broad Market Sell-Off U.S. employers added 172,000 jobs in May more than double the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 80,000- while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. The blowout report fueled fears that the...
Tariffs and Oil
GS: Tariffs, Higher Oil Prices, and (Mismeasured) Effects of AI Demand Are Likely to Keep Year-over-Year Core PCE Inflation Close to 3% All Year, but We Still Expect a Decline to Close to 2% in 2027 https://t.co/MtiVof1Eai
Fed Delays Cuts Until 2027 as Labor Remains Strong
GS: No Fed Cuts This Year We are pushing the final two rate cuts in our Fed forecast back to June and December of 2027 The labor market has been stronger than we anticipated, and we now expect the unemployment rate to...
Strong Job Growth Triggers Market Plunge, Chip Stocks Tumble
The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May — nearly double what Wall Street wanted. The reward? The Nasdaq's worst day in over a year and more than $1 trillion erased from chip stocks. Welcome to the regime where good...
May CPI to Spike Above 4%, Fed Likely Holds
I expect May CPI on June 10th to run hot, above 4% headline. That's the top. It comes down with the June number in July. The Fed won't hike this year. CPI hit 3.8% last month from 3.3%, energy was 40%....