Durable Goods Orders Rise, Defying Decline Forecasts
Durable goods orders jumped 0.7% in April, crushing expectations of a decline. 📈 Core business investment also ticked up, signaling a stable manufacturing sector. Good news for the economy. EconUpdate
DXY Hits 3‑year Low; July Rally Expected
$DXY monthly - Closed the month a bit higher. Made a 3 year cycle low in January. So far it hasn't rallied much since the January low but traders are pricing in a 60%-70% chance of a rate hike by...
Inflation Rises, Yet Spending, Hiring, Production Surge
Inflation is climbing to levels not seen since early 2023, yet consumers keep spending, businesses keep hiring, and manufacturers are surging to record production. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/dd8EF8klzi
PCE Inflation Near Double Fed Target, Services Prices Stubborn
PCE Inflation Surges Further from Fed’s Target, now Nearly Double Fed’s Target, 5+ Years above Target. Trend reversal a year ago. Services inflation stuck at high rate for a year. Now prices of food, energy, computers & software (AI boom),...
Sticky Inflation Forces Fed Hike, Eroding Savings to 2008
Fed’s inflation target came in hot & sticky in April, fueling Fed’s pivot to a rate hike instead of a cut. High inflation & loss of transfers for Medicaid and SNAP (food stamps) sapped income growth & drained saving to...
Core Inflation Matches Expectations at 3.3% in April
Core inflation hit an annual rate of 3.3% in April, as expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows: CNBC
Model Predicts Prolonged Inflation, No Fed Rate Cuts
Our Fed-Front Running (Fractal) Model continues to imply higher for longer on Inflation and no Rate Cuts https://t.co/th05xxbaQy
Cook Sees Disinflation Returning, Warns of Rate Hikes if Delayed
Cook: “In my baseline forecast, disinflation should resume in upcoming months without having to raise rates….” “…I am prepared to raise rates, if the expected disinflation does not appear in a timely manner.”
Core PCE Set to Hit 3.3%
Based on the CPI and PPI, forecasters anticipate the core PCE rose 0.28% in April. This would lift the 12-month rate to 3.3%, the highest since November 2023 (when the Fed still had a tightening bias). The 6-month annualized rate...
Traders Overprice Rate Hikes, 2‑Year Yield Gap Widens
Traders aren't listening as much to Fed speak as forward guidance and instead are pricing in rate hikes with more certainty than what's coming from US central bankers. Last week, US 2-year yields climbed to 50bp above the Fed funds...
Official Inflation Stats Understate Income Gap by Up to 90%
New @nberpubs: "Cheapflation Cycles" https://t.co/yk60z2ZkXb "Official statistics mask these within-category differences in inflation and thus understate the differences in inflation experienced by low- and high-income households by 70–90 percent." (Relevant for US input tariffs, too)
U.S. Growth Set to Outpace Peers Through 2030
The Economist on the U.S. economy’s consistent growth outperformance relative to other advanced countries: “America’s outperformance began decades ago, but in the 2020s it has become vast. And it is likely to last. The latest IMF forecasts show American growth besting...
Memorial Day Data
Memorial Day week brings light data but high stakes: Q1 GDP and core PCED Thursday could fuel rate hike bets already at 62.5% for December. We think July's in play. 🟢 Open https://t.co/Lfff4zB9Ia
Business Investment Outpaces Consumption, Adding 1.4% to Q1 GDP
Business fixed investment contributed a massive 1.4% to real GDP in Q1... a larger growth driver than consumption JPMAM #AI https://t.co/PAqtt2OUYa
Navarro Urges Fed Patience, Warns Against Rate Hikes
Navarro counsels against rate hikes (illustrating how the dovish position has changed): “Now we hear the rate hike drums beating louder from Wall Street trading desks to the regional Fed banks and into the bowels of the Eccles building. The right Fed...