New York Fed President Williams Worries War Will Slow Growth, Aggravate Inflation
New York Fed President John Williams warned that the ongoing Iran war is already nudging U.S. prices higher while dampening economic growth. He highlighted rising energy costs and broader supply‑chain pressures that could trigger a stagflation‑like environment. Williams reaffirmed the Fed’s confidence that inflation will ease and growth will stay modest, projecting 2‑2.5% GDP expansion and 2.75‑3% inflation for 2026. The central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 3.5‑3.75% and markets expect no cuts this year.
March 2026 Rental Report: Renting Beats Buying in All 50 Major U.S. Metros — and the Savings Gap May Be...
The March 2026 Rental Report shows a 32‑month streak of year‑over‑year rent declines across the 50 largest U.S. metros, with the national median asking rent falling to $1,669, 1.5% lower than a year ago but still 17.5% above pre‑pandemic levels. Renting...
OMB's Vought: CDFIs Funded 'Woke' Programs
Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought urged cuts to the Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFI) Fund, accusing the program of financing “woke” and DEI‑focused projects. He argued that CDFI loans lack traditional ability‑to‑pay underwriting, raising safety‑and‑soundness concerns. The...
Inflation: A Molehill, Not a Mountain
U.S. consumer prices jumped 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, driven largely by a sharp rise in oil and gas costs. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food, increased only 2.6% YoY and 0.2% month‑over‑month, below market expectations. Other gauges such...
Iran War Is a Major Source of Uncertainty for U.S. Businesses, Fed’s ‘Bei...
The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book flags the Iran war as a primary source of uncertainty for U.S. firms, prompting a wait‑and‑see approach to hiring and capital spending. Input costs, especially energy, have risen sharply, squeezing margins across manufacturing and...
Imports/Exports Favorable for March, BofA Beats in Q1
U.S. import prices for March rose 0.8% month‑over‑month, far below the 2.4% forecast, while core imports eased to just 0.2% after excluding fuel. Export prices increased 1.6% MoM and are up 5.6% year‑over‑year, the strongest pace since November 2022. Bank...
Trump Threatens Another Major Firing
President Donald Trump intensified his campaign against Federal Reserve leadership, warning he will fire Chair Jerome Powell if a new chair is not confirmed soon. He has nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Powell's successor, but Senate Banking Committee...
Americans Feel Miserable. Why Do They Keep Spending?
New research titled “Down But Not Out: Growth Strategies For The Pessimism Economy” reveals why U.S. consumers keep spending despite historically low confidence. Four forces—media amplification of bad news, personal‑finance proximity, polarized spending concentrated among the affluent, and a turn...
Builder Sentiment Posts Notable Decline on Economic Uncertainty
Builder confidence for new single‑family homes slipped to 34 in April, the lowest reading since September 2025, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. The decline reflects persistent high mortgage rates, rising material costs tied to higher fuel prices, and...
US Mortgage Payments Ease Slightly but Affordability Strain Persists
The average new mortgage payment in the United States slipped 2.4% year‑over‑year to $1,942 in 2025, offering modest relief to borrowers. Yet 24.3% of new homeowners still allocate at least 30% of their income to mortgage costs, a level deemed...
Why Is the Fed Holding Firm? The New Strategic Reality for Treasurers
The Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%‑3.75% for a second pause in 2026, moving from aggressive easing to cautious observation amid geopolitical energy shocks and a looming leadership transition. Simultaneously, the Fed is purchasing up...
US Set to Start Refunding $127 Billion in Tariffs
The U.S. Treasury will begin processing refunds on April 20 for $127 billion in tariffs that the Supreme Court struck down earlier this year. The Court of International Trade ordered the government to file a progress report by April 28. A new...
Report: Retail Sales Grew in March Thanks to Tax Refunds
Retail sales climbed for the sixth straight month in March, driven by larger-than‑expected tax refunds that offset rising gasoline prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Seasonally adjusted sales excluding autos and gas stations rose 0.4% month‑over‑month and 6.59% year‑over‑year,...
Scoop: Senate Plans to Grill Six Cabinet Officials on Trump's Budget
Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R‑Maine) will summon six Trump Cabinet secretaries for hearings on April 22, aiming to push a full‑year appropriations package through before the Sept. 30 fiscal deadline. The lineup includes Treasury, Health and Human Services, Commerce, Interior,...
Babies Beget Babies. That’s Both a Problem and a Policy Lesson.
The new NBER paper finds that exposure to babies increases the desire for children, creating a self‑reinforcing loop that may explain about 13% of the recent fertility decline. Economists argue that policies such as child subsidies, affordable housing, and better...
