Fixed Income Markets in a Higher for Longer Environment
Kevin Warsh has taken the helm of the Federal Reserve, signaling a shift toward a more measured, Greenspan‑style approach. He is expected to keep short‑term rates steady for the rest of 2026, reinforcing a higher‑for‑longer rate outlook. Persistent inflation expectations, reflected in mid‑2 % 10‑year TIPS breakevens, and rising Treasury issuance are pushing long‑term yields higher. The article argues that active fixed‑income management is essential as supply‑demand imbalances and term‑premium repricing reshape the bond market.
With Fed Set to Meet Next Week, December's Rate Cut Now Looks Questionable
In December 2025 the Federal Reserve voted for a third consecutive rate cut despite growing dissent, a decision now viewed as premature. Subsequent data show core PCE inflation accelerating to 4.1% year‑over‑year and overall PCE at 5.5%, while the labor...
Fed Faces Rising Rate Hike Expectations, Schwab Center's Martin Says
Collin Martin of the Schwab Center for Financial Research warned that the Federal Reserve’s threshold for an additional rate hike is dropping as the labor market stays robust and price pressures persist. Recent payroll data show continued job growth, while...
Goldman Sachs Pushes Fed Rate-Cut Call to 2027 on Strong US Jobs Data
Goldman Sachs now projects the Federal Reserve will keep policy rates unchanged through 2026 and only begin cutting in June and December 2027, a full year later than its prior outlook. The revision follows a surprisingly strong U.S. payrolls report...
Bond Traders Bet on a CPI Surge That Bolsters Case for Fed Pivot
Bond traders are betting that this week’s CPI will reveal the strongest inflation pressure in years, pushing the Federal Reserve toward more rate hikes. Ten‑year Treasury yields rose to 4.55% and two‑year yields hit 4.18%, their highest since early 2025....
Trump Pushes Back Against Fed Rate-Hike Bets Following Strong US Jobs Report
President Donald Trump told NBC’s Meet the Press that the Federal Reserve would be mistaken to raise interest rates, even as a stronger‑than‑expected May jobs report fuels market expectations of tighter policy. He urged Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who is...
Trump’s Top Economic Adviser Issues Surprise Verdict on Latest Jobs Report
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U.S. added 172,000 jobs in May, keeping the unemployment rate at 4.3%. National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett hailed the data as evidence of a robust, supply‑side‑driven labor market that is unlikely to...
Inflation's Comeback: Why the Fed May Be Losing the Fight Again
Mike Maharrey argues that inflation’s decline was premature, warning of a second wave driven by continued monetary expansion and fiscal spending. He points to a CPI rise to 3.8% in April and a 4.9% jump in the money supply to...
Making Sense of Conflicting Labour Market Signals
U.S. labor market data have become increasingly contradictory, with slowing payroll growth, falling vacancies, modest unemployment rises, and persistent wage pressure. Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago synthesize 94 monthly and quarterly indicators into four economically interpretable "narrative...
The Key to the Upcoming Fed Meeting? How Warsh Reacts to All the Hints Of...
The Federal Reserve’s June meeting is expected to be dominated by hints of a rate hike as a robust May jobs report underscores a still‑tight labor market and persistent inflation. Over the past eight weeks, Fed officials have grown nearly...
Good News for Labor Proves Bad for Stocks (E264)
DoubleLine analysts Jeff Mayberry and Mark Kimbrough highlighted a sharp sell‑off across tech, consumer discretionary and communications stocks during the June 1‑5 week, driven by a surprisingly strong May payrolls report. Bond yields flattened and most commodities weakened, except for energy,...
How Hot Is America’s Labour Market?
After a sluggish 2025 in which the U.S. added only about 10,000 jobs per month, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times to support the economy. Recent labor reports show hiring picking up and job openings climbing, suggesting the...
U.S. Economy Adds 172,000 Jobs in May
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non‑farm payrolls added 172,000 jobs in May, keeping the unemployment rate flat at 4.3%. Revisions boosted March’s gain to 214,000 and April’s to 179,000, lifting the combined March‑April increase by 93,000 jobs....
Rate Cuts Further Dimmed with Positive Employment Report
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that May added 172,000 jobs, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. Revisions lifted March’s payroll gain to 214,000 and April’s to 179,000, underscoring stronger labor momentum. Leisure and hospitality, local government, and...
U.S. Labor Market Remains Resilient in May
The U.S. labor market showed continued strength in May, with nonfarm payrolls adding 172,000 jobs for the third month in a row and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%. Job growth was led by leisure and hospitality, local government and...