Inflation Forecast Nearly Doubles to 6%, Raising Pressure on Mortgage Rates
The Survey of Professional Forecasters lifted its second‑quarter 2026 CPI projection to 6%, nearly double the current 3.8% rate, after a prior estimate of 2.7% three months ago. The revision also raised the Fed’s preferred PCE measure to 4.5% headline and 3.4% core for the quarter. The higher inflation outlook coincides with a pending Fed chair transition to Kevin Warsh and signals a tougher environment for mortgage rates. Growth and employment forecasts were trimmed, with GDP now seen expanding at 2.1% annualized and unemployment at 4.5% this year.
US Debt Load Could Undercut Warsh‘s Plan to Shrink Fed Balance Sheet
Incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh wants to shrink the central bank’s balance sheet, but soaring U.S. debt and a jump in long‑term Treasury yields could blunt his agenda. The 2‑year rate has risen above 4% and the 30‑year topped 5.1%,...
The Federal Reserve’s Independence Is Hanging by a Thread in the Age of Trump
Jerome Powell stepped down as Federal Reserve chair after steering the U.S. economy to a rare soft landing, curbing inflation without triggering a recession. During his tenure he repeatedly rebuffed President Donald Trump’s demands for rate cuts and publicly defended...
Bessent Sees 'Substantial Disinflation' Ahead as Warsh Takes over the Fed
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that despite April’s CPI rising 0.6 % and core inflation at 2.8 % YoY, he expects only one or two more hot inflation readings before a substantial disinflation period begins. He attributes the recent energy‑fed price...
Mortgage Rates Stabilized at 6.36%, Despite Inflation
Mortgage rates held steady this week, with the Freddie Mac 30‑year benchmark slipping to 6.36% after a one‑basis‑point decline. The dip occurred even as the 10‑year Treasury yield rose on fresh inflation concerns, thanks to higher prices for mortgage‑backed securities and...
KC Fed Pres Schmid: Inflation Remains Too High.
Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid warned that inflation remains too high, describing it as the most pressing economic risk. He highlighted the economy's resilience, noting solid fundamentals, a functioning labor market, and strong consumer spending driven by wealth gains....
US Import and Export Prices Jump Most Since 2022 on Fuel Costs
In April 2026 the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said the import price index rose 1.9% and the export price index jumped 3.3% from the prior month, the steepest gains since early 2022. The surge was driven by a 19%...
Bankrate and Freddie Mac Mortgage Rate Data : Using FRED to Compare Similar but Not Identical Datasets
The Federal Reserve’s FRED platform now hosts parallel mortgage‑rate series from Freddie Mac and Bankrate, letting users visualize and quantify differences between the two datasets. Freddie Mac’s rates reflect averages of thousands of loan applications, while Bankrate’s figures come from surveys of...
How Jerome Powell Managed a Chaotic Era
Jerome Powell’s tenure as Federal Reserve chair, spanning the COVID‑19 pandemic, the Russia‑Ukraine war, and a surge in inflation, is examined in a new New York Times video. The piece highlights his aggressive rate‑hiking cycle—11 hikes that lifted the federal...
Senate Confirms Kevin Warsh as the New Federal Reserve Chair — Here’s What This ‘Regime Change’ Will Mean
Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate as the next Federal Reserve chair in a 54‑45 vote, succeeding Jerome Powell on May 15. Warsh, a Wall Street veteran, promises a "regime change" as the Fed confronts rising inflation driven by higher...
Producer Prices Jump to Three-Year High, Spurred by War Shortages
U.S. wholesale prices jumped 1.4% in April, pushing the Producer Price Index to a 6% year‑over‑year gain—the strongest increase since December 2022. The surge is driven by war‑related spikes in oil, with wholesale energy prices up 7.8% and transportation costs...
Fed's Collins Says Rate Hikes May Be Needed to Quell Inflation
Boston Fed President Susan Collins warned that the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates if inflation does not ease, though she sees that outcome as unlikely. She linked the inflation outlook to the duration of the Middle East conflict,...
US Producer Inflation Surges by 6pc in April
U.S. producer prices jumped 6% year‑over‑year in April, the strongest rise since December 2022, as soaring energy costs tied to the Middle East Gulf war lifted the overall PPI. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the index up from a 4.3%...
The U.S. Inflation Problem Is Getting Worse
U.S. inflation is accelerating as the Producer Price Index jumped 1.4% in April and is up 6% over the past year. Core services inflation reached a 4.4% year‑over‑year increase, the strongest since 2023, driven by higher transportation and warehousing costs....
Why a Warsh-Led Fed May Keep Interest Rates Higher for Longer
Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's pick, is poised to become Fed chair as the Senate prepares a vote. He inherits a central bank confronting a three‑year‑high inflation rate of about 4.2 % and rising geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict. Economists...
What the Latest Inflation Upsurge Means for the Mortgage Market
April’s consumer price index jumped to 3.8%, the highest level in nearly three years, reigniting concerns that inflation will keep mortgage rates elevated. Freddie Mac’s 30‑year fixed‑rate benchmark rose to 6.37% for the week ending May 7, marking a second consecutive weekly...
April Budget Surplus Falls Short as Refunds Dent Tax Season Gains
The Treasury reported a $215 billion surplus for April 2026, $43 billion below the $258 billion surplus recorded a year earlier, marking a 17% decline. The drop is driven by a surge in tax refunds—corporate refunds up 87% and individual refunds up 17% to...
US Sees Smaller April Budget Surplus on Lower Tax Receipts
The U.S. Treasury reported a $215 billion budget surplus for April, 17% lower than the same month a year earlier. Total federal revenue fell 2% to $837 billion, driven by a 6% drop in individual tax withholdings and an 8% decline in...
Inflation Since 1872: A Long-Term Look at the CPI
The Consumer Price Index for April showed a year‑over‑year inflation rate of 3.81%, the first time since May 2023 that it has risen above the post‑World War II average of 3.72%. The rate also sits below the 10‑year moving average of...
Social Security’s COLA Could Rise as Much as 4.2% in 2027, Boosted by Iran War Impact and Inflation
Social Security’s cost‑of‑living adjustment (COLA) for 2027 may climb to 4.2%, up from the 2.8% slated for this year. The surge reflects a three‑year high in inflation, driven largely by higher gasoline, energy and grocery prices after the Iran war...
Did Rents Really Surge in April and Boost Inflation? Here’s the Real Story.
U.S. consumer prices rose 3.8% year‑over‑year in April, the strongest pace in three years. The increase was driven largely by a sharp jump in oil prices linked to the Iran conflict, while the shelter component – especially rents – showed...
The Latest CPI Data Came in Pretty Hot. This Is What It Means for Advisors
The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 3.8% year‑over‑year in April, edging past the 3.7% consensus, while the monthly figure climbed 0.6% after a 0.9% jump in March. Core CPI increased 0.4% versus the 0.3% forecast, reflecting higher energy costs and...
Inflation Outpaced Wage Growth in April
U.S. consumer prices rose 3.8% year‑over‑year in April, the strongest gain since May 2023, propelled by a 17.9% jump in energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. The surge pushed inflation above wage growth for the first time since May...
How the U.S.‑Israel War Against Iran Is Exposing the Limits of the Petrodollar System
U.S. public debt has risen to $31.27 trillion, edging past the nation’s $31.22 trillion GDP, reviving concerns about fiscal sustainability. Gulf Cooperation Council sovereign wealth funds, which collectively own roughly $2 trillion of U.S. assets, are reassessing those holdings after the U.S.-Israel campaign...
Inflation Hits 3.8%, Outpaces Wage Growth for First Time in 3 Years
U.S. inflation rose to 3.8% in April, outpacing wage growth for the first time in three years, according to the BLS CPI. The increase was broad‑based, driven by higher energy, grocery, rent, airfare and medical costs. Navy Federal’s chief economist...
Food Price Increase Contributes to Overall 3.8% Jump in Consumer Prices
The U.S. Consumer Price Index climbed 3.8% in April, with grocery prices rising 0.7% after a flat March. Beef led the food surge, up 2.7% and now 14.8% higher than a year ago, while fruits and vegetables jumped 1.8%. Energy...
US Inflation Shocks Analysts
U.S. consumer prices jumped 3.8% year‑over‑year in April, the strongest pace since May 2023, outpacing the Dow Jones consensus of 3.7%. Monthly CPI rose 0.6%, driven largely by a 3.8% surge in the energy index, while food prices added 0.5%...
Fed in Wait-and-See Mode on Hot Inflation Report; Mortgage Rates to Track Oil Prices, Mideast Talks
April’s consumer price index showed a modest 0.6% month‑over‑month rise, taking the year‑over‑year headline rate to 3.8% as energy prices surged amid the Strait of Hormuz closure. Core CPI climbed 0.4% month‑over‑month to 2.8% year‑over‑year, with shelter costs accelerating sharply...
Pres. Trump: Ships Are Coming to Texas and Louisianna to Load up with Oil
President Trump highlighted a surge in oil shipments from Texas and Louisiana, framing it as a win for U.S. exporters and energy producers. While export volumes are climbing, the national average gasoline price has risen to $4.50 per gallon, up...
Inflation Shock: US Stock Futures Drop as Oil Surges Amid Middle East Tensions
U.S. stock futures opened lower as April CPI rose 3.8% YoY, slightly above expectations, pushing the 10‑year Treasury yield near 4.45%. The surge in oil prices—WTI at $101.60 and Brent at $107.70—was driven by stalled U.S.–Iran talks and concerns over...
Inflation Contagion: April CPI Hits 3.8% as Energy Shock Bleeds Into Core
April 2026 CPI rose 3.8% year‑over‑year, matching forecasts, while core inflation edged up to 2.8% YoY. The report showed a 5.4% monthly jump in gasoline and a 2.8% rise in airline fares, signaling the energy shock is spilling into broader...
Fed's Goolsbee: We Have an Inflation Problem in This Country
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that the United States still faces an inflation problem, noting that recent CPI data came in hotter than expected and that services inflation remains the most persistent component. Since March 2021, CPI has hovered...
Energy Shock Drives Consumer Prices up 0.6% in April
U.S. consumer prices accelerated in April, with the CPI up 0.6% month‑over‑month and 3.8% year‑over‑year, driven largely by a sharp rebound in energy costs. Gasoline prices rose 5.4% after a 21.1% jump the prior month, keeping the energy index responsible...
Dollar Gains as Oil and CPI Lift Fed Hike Bets, but Risk Appetite Holds Firm
The dollar rose broadly as April CPI jumped to 3.8% YoY and core inflation to 2.8%, nudging Fed‑fund futures toward a 28% chance of another rate hike. Oil prices surged, with Brent above $107 and WTI over $100, driven by...
April Inflation Shoots 3.8% Higher on Surging Prices From War in Iran
U.S. consumer prices jumped 3.8% year‑over‑year in April 2025, largely driven by a surge in energy costs linked to the ten‑week war with Iran. Gasoline prices rose 5.4% from March and are now more than 28% higher than a year...
Treasury Yields Rise as Inflation Picks Up Speed
U.S. consumer prices rose 3.8% year‑over‑year in April, pushing core CPI to 2.8% and prompting Treasury yields to climb, with the 10‑year note reaching 4.43% and the two‑year at 3.97%. The stronger inflation reading fuels expectations of a more hawkish...
Inflation Surged in April to the Highest Rate Since 2023
U.S. consumer prices accelerated to a 3.8% year‑over‑year rise in April, the fastest pace since 2023, driven largely by a 17.9% surge in energy costs. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, climbed to 2.8% YoY, edging above expectations....
US April CPY 3.8% Y/Y vs 3.7% Expected
U.S. consumer price index for April increased 3.8% year‑over‑year, slightly above the 3.7% consensus. The monthly CPI rose 0.6% and core CPI climbed 0.4% after two months of 0.2% gains, largely propelled by a rebound in shelter costs. Energy inflation...
ADP NER Pulse Showed a Gain of 33K in the Current Week.
The ADP National Employment Report (NER) Pulse showed a weekly gain of 33,000 jobs, slightly below the 39,250 added the previous week. This figure falls within the 30,000‑40,000 range that has persisted over the past five releases, indicating a consistently...
USD Is Higher to Start the US Session. Yields and Oil Higher. Stocks Lower. CPI Awaited.
The U.S. dollar opened the North American session higher, gaining 0.36% against the euro, 0.27% versus the yen and 0.62% versus the pound as traders brace for the key CPI release. Core CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% month‑over‑month and...
Christopher J Waller: Update on Federal Reserve Bank Operations
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller outlined a plan to centralize and standardize back‑office functions across the twelve Reserve Banks. He argues that IT, human resources, finance, risk management and payments can be delivered by a single “contractor” Bank, lowering...
Stock Market Today: Nasdaq Leads Stock Losses After Jump in April Inflation
The Nasdaq composite fell sharply as April consumer‑price inflation rose to 3.8% year‑over‑year, edging above the 3.7% forecast and driven largely by higher gasoline costs. The hotter‑than‑expected CPI data cooled the tech‑led rally that had propelled U.S. equities higher in...
Stocks and Bonds Hold Losses After Inflation Data: Markets Wrap
JPMorgan warned that inflation will remain persistently higher after the latest CPI report highlighted elevated energy costs and supply disruptions linked to the war in Iran. The data pushed U.S. equities lower, eroding gains from all‑time highs, with chipmakers leading...
It’s Not Just Women Dropping Out of the Workforce. This Group Is, Too
April’s jobs report showed a modest gain of 115,000 jobs and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, but it also revealed a sharp decline in men’s labor force participation, now at its lowest level in decades with roughly one‑third of men...
Trump Takes Aim at Beef, Fuel Prices as Inflation Risks Mount
President Donald Trump announced a push to curb inflation‑driven costs by targeting beef and gasoline prices. He plans to sign executive orders that would expand beef imports and suspend the tariff‑rate quota, while also advocating a temporary halt to the...
Wall Street Giants Push Back Fed Rate-Cut Outlook After Resilient Jobs Data
Wall Street’s biggest banks have pushed back expectations for the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut, citing a surprisingly strong April jobs report. Goldman Sachs now sees the next move no earlier than December 2026, while Bank of America has extended its...
Dow Jones Futures: Techs Fall On $100 Oil, South Korea AI Comments; CPI Inflation Due
Dow Jones futures slipped 0.1% while the S&P 500 fell 0.4% and Nasdaq futures dropped 0.9% as crude oil surged past $100 a barrel. In South Korea, a presidential adviser floated an “AI dividend” from excess artificial‑intelligence profits, sending the memory‑chip‑heavy...
Trump Backs Suspension of US Gasoline Tax
President Donald Trump called for a suspension of the federal gasoline excise tax of 18.4¢ per gallon, arguing it would help curb soaring fuel prices as the Iran‑related oil market turmoil persists. The proposal has bipartisan backing, with Senate bills...
Trump Wants to Suspend the Federal Gas Tax to Lower Fuel Prices. Can He Do That?
President Donald Trump announced plans to suspend the 18.4‑cent‑per‑gallon federal gas tax, arguing it would help lower the recent surge in gasoline prices that have topped $4.50 per gallon. The proposal is unprecedented because the Constitution grants taxing authority solely...
Kevin Warsh Is Expected to Be Confirmed as Fed Chair This Week. This Is What It Means for Advisors
Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is poised to be confirmed this week as the next Federal Reserve Chair, succeeding Jerome Powell in May. His confirmation would clear the way for the rate cuts President Trump has been urging, with advisors...