Michelle W Bowman: Supporting Small Businesses
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman highlighted the outsized role of small businesses, which employed 59 million Americans and generated $16 trillion in revenue in 2023, accounting for roughly half of private‑sector jobs and 44% of GDP. She noted that community and regional banks hold about $600 billion in loans under $1 million, yet credit standards have tightened, with 9% of banks reporting stricter C&I lending criteria in Q3 2025. To spur more lending, the Fed and other regulators proposed lowering risk‑weight requirements—down to 65% for small‑business loans over $1 million and to 75% for smaller loans. Bowman urged stakeholders to comment on the proposals as they could free capital for expanding credit to entrepreneurs.
Fed Minutes Reveal Widening Policy Divide as Inflation Risks Cloud Rate-Cut Outlook
The Federal Reserve’s March 17‑18 meeting minutes reveal a growing split among policymakers on whether to cut rates or keep them steady as inflation remains above target. The Fed left the federal funds rate range at 3.50‑3.75% and warned that...
To Raise or Not to Raise Interest Rates? ‘Several’ Fed Policymakers Are Divided on Rate Hikes, March Minutes Show
The Federal Open Market Committee kept its policy rate at 3.5%‑3.75% during the March meeting, citing uncertainty from the recent US‑Iran conflict. Minutes reveal a split among officials: some fear lingering inflation could demand hikes, while others see labor‑market risks...
:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc():format(jpeg)/Term-Definitions_Economic-cycle-caf22d58aef949fcb919389e16db647a-2afc44d70b724ae5af20bc3757a06d15.jpg)
Understanding the Economic Cycle and Its Four Stages
The article outlines the four‑stage economic cycle—expansion, peak, contraction, and trough—and notes that U.S. cycles average about five and a half years. It explains how the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) uses GDP and other metrics to date cycles....
Ceasefire May Reduce Case for Fed Cuts as Inflation Risks Persist: Timiraos
A ceasefire between the United States and Iran has eased the growth‑downside risk that previously bolstered the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts. While markets have nudged up the odds of easing, analyst Nick Timiraos argues that inflation pressures remain...
ISM Services PMI: Continued Expansion In March
The Institute for Supply Management reported a March Services PMI of 54.0, signalling continued expansion but a slowdown from February. The Prices Index rose as oil and fuel costs increased, while the Supplier Deliveries Index showed weaker performance. The Employment...
:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc():format(jpeg)/PMI--f77e0dc1e4fe49b5985b22d1f5494bc0.jpg)
Understanding the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Economic Insight
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a diffusion index compiled monthly from surveys of supply‑chain executives, measuring new orders, production, employment, deliveries and inventories. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction. The Institute for Supply Management...
Fed Meeting Minutes Show Policymakers Weighed Economic Impact of Iran War
Federal Reserve officials highlighted the economic fallout from the U.S.-Iran conflict in the March 17‑18 FOMC minutes, noting that a prolonged war could lift energy prices and feed core inflation. The committee voted to keep the policy rate steady in...
Iran Ceasefire May Not Quell Mortgage Rate Volatility
Mortgage rates slipped on April 8 after the United States and Iran announced a two‑week ceasefire, with the 30‑year fixed rate dropping from 6.44% to 6.38%. Analysts say the dip is likely temporary, as lingering uncertainty over energy prices and inflation...
CoBank Quarterly: Economic Fallout of Rising Fuel and Energy Costs Will Be Most Acute in Rural America
CoBank’s latest quarterly report warns that surging fuel and energy prices will hit rural America hardest, even as the U.S. economy posted over 2 % GDP growth in Q1 and unemployment held near 4.3 %. Higher gasoline and diesel costs are expected...
Why More Americans Are Leaving the Workforce
The U.S. labor force participation rate slipped to 61.9% in March, the lowest level since 1977 when the pandemic is excluded. The decline is driven primarily by accelerating retirements among baby‑boomers and tighter immigration flows, which together shrink the pool...
Trump Again Proposes Eliminating Manufacturing Extension Partnership
President Donald Trump’s FY 2027 budget proposal seeks to eliminate the Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP), a NIST‑run program that aids small and medium‑sized manufacturers. The cut is part of a broader $993 million reduction to NIST, which would also scrap its Circular...
Workers Say They’re Staying Put Out of Fear, Not Enjoyment — and It’s Likely Costing Employers
A new Economist Enterprise study finds the U.S. quit rate has fallen to a decade‑low of 2%, as workers cling to jobs out of fear rather than satisfaction. About 62% say long‑term security outweighs new opportunities, and 30% have stopped...
March 2026 CPI Preview: What to Expect
The Center for Economic and Policy Research expects the March 2026 Consumer Price Index to spike sharply, driven primarily by a surge in gasoline prices. Food costs and higher import prices are also slated to lift the headline rate, while...
Homebuyer Mortgage Demand Drops Annually for the First Time in over a Year, as War Fuels Uncertainty
Mortgage demand slipped for the first time in over a year as applications to purchase a home fell 7% year‑over‑year and refinance requests dropped 4% YoY. The average 30‑year fixed‑rate contract slipped to 6.51% from 6.57%, but remains above the...
Online Labor Demand Increased in March
The Conference Board‑Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index climbed to 109.1 in March 2026, a 3.8% rise from February’s revised 105.1 reading. The gain lifts the index 2.7% above its level a year earlier, signaling expanding online job vacancies across...
JP Morgan Chief Warns of “Significant” Interest Rate Shocks
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the escalating conflict in Iran could trigger sharp oil and commodity price spikes, keeping inflation elevated and forcing interest rates higher than market expectations. He cited the war in Ukraine, Middle‑East hostilities, and...
:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc():format(jpeg)/GettyImages-1246652809-9232cebf0938444191353cddfc926f8e.jpg)
Dot Plot: Understanding Types, Uses, and Federal Reserve Insights
A dot plot is a simple visual tool that places each data point as a dot on a two‑axis chart, highlighting distribution, central tendency, and dispersion. The two dominant designs are the Cleveland style, which emphasizes position over length, and...
Fed Data Signals Consumers Pulling Back on Credit Card Spending
Federal Reserve data released on April 7 shows total consumer credit grew 2.2% year‑over‑year in February, up from 1.8% in January. Non‑revolving credit—auto, student and personal loans—accelerated to a 2.8% annualized pace, while revolving credit card balances slowed to a 0.6%...
White House Priorities on Full Display in FY2027 Budget Request
The White House unveiled its FY2027 budget request on April 3, proposing a $73 billion reduction from FY2026 enacted levels. The plan slashes the Environmental Protection Agency’s funding by 52%, cutting $4.6 billion and trimming $2.5 billion from clean and drinking water loan...
U.S. Jobs Rebound in March, but We Aren't Out of the Woods Yet
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. non‑farm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March, pulling the unemployment rate down to 4.3% from 4.4%. Health‑care led the gains, accounting for roughly 40% of the new jobs, while the public sector...
Consumer Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Iran War Price Pressure
Consumer inflation expectations surged to 3.4% for the next year in March, driven by a 9.4% anticipated rise in gasoline prices amid heightened geopolitical tension with Iran. The New York Fed reported wage‑growth expectations slipping to 2.4%, the lowest since...
March CPI Report: Iran War Is Expected to Boost Inflation
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the March CPI on April 10, with headline inflation projected to rise 0.8% month‑over‑month and 3.1% year‑over‑year. Energy prices, spurred by the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict, are expected to jump roughly 10% and dominate the headline...
US Tech Sector Lost Jobs in March, AI Enters Layoff Calculations
The U.S. technology sector shed roughly 15,000 jobs in March, even as the broader economy added 178,000 positions and the national unemployment rate held at 4.3%. CompTIA’s analysis of BLS data shows tech unemployment at 3.9%, slightly below the overall...
White House’s Proposed Budget Slashes SBA Funding by 67 Percent
The White House’s FY2027 budget proposal slashes the Small Business Administration’s funding from $1 billion to $329 million, a 67 percent reduction. The cut trims $309 million from entrepreneurial‑development programs, eliminates the SCORE mentoring service, and ends the $100 million community‑navigator pilot, while preserving a...
Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields: March 2026
The latest analysis shows the P/E10 ratio has surged to 37.1, well above its historical average of 17.7, while inflation sits at 2.66%—inside the long‑standing “sweet spot” of 1.4%‑3.0%. At the same time, the 10‑year Treasury yield has risen to...
Key Fed Official Says Interest Rate Hike Is Possible as Gas Prices Soar
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that soaring gasoline prices, now $4.14 per gallon, could force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates if inflation remains stubborn. The Fed has kept its benchmark rate steady at 3.5‑3.75% since December, but...
Rising Rates Weigh on Mortgage Activity
Mortgage activity slipped in March as the average 30‑year fixed rate climbed to 6.37%, up 13 basis points from February. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Market Composite Index fell 4.3% month‑over‑month, though it remains 30.8% above a year ago. Refinance applications...
Bond Traders Risk Being Wrongfooted by 2022 Playbook, UBS Warns
UBS chief strategist Bhanu Baweja warns bond traders that markets are pricing a 2022‑style, coordinated central‑bank tightening in response to the Iran war, which may be unrealistic. He argues that the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England...
Trump Budget Proposal Once Again Targets Affordable Housing, Homeless Assistance
The Trump administration’s FY 2027 budget proposes a 13% cut to the Department of Housing and Urban Development, shrinking its discretionary budget to $73.5 billion. It would eliminate the $3.3 billion Community Development Block Grant and the $1.3 billion HOME Investment Partnerships Program, and...
Businesses Are Spending for the Future Despite Uncertain Times — a Good Omen for the Economy
Business investment climbed for the seventh time in eight months, reaching an all‑time high as firms poured capital into robotics, artificial intelligence and high‑performance computing. Core orders for durable goods rose 0.6% in February, lifting the year‑over‑year increase to 5.1%....
ABC: Construction Employment Rebounds by 26,000 in March
Construction employment rose by 26,000 jobs in March, marking a 0.7% year‑over‑year increase and bringing total industry growth to 57,000 positions since last year. Nonresidential construction led the gains with 12,200 new jobs across building, specialty trade, and heavy‑civil categories....
Long-Term Bullish, Near-Term Cautious
Jeremy Siegel notes that the U.S. economy remains resilient, with March payrolls exceeding expectations and unemployment edging lower. However, a still‑tight labor market, accelerating M2 growth, and rising oil prices from an ongoing geopolitical conflict make near‑term Federal Reserve easing...
Manufacturing Bounces Back in March Amid Price and War Woes
U.S. manufacturing activity expanded in March, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbing to 52.7, a modest 0.3‑point gain over February and marking the third straight month of growth. While the New Orders Index cooled, the Production Index accelerated, and the...
Hiltzik: Exploring the Moon While Cutting NASA? Why Trump's 2027 Budget Misfires
The Trump administration’s 2027‑28 budget proposal earmarks $1.5 trillion for defense—a 42% increase and the highest level in U.S. history—while slashing non‑defense spending by $73 billion. NASA’s overall budget would be cut by $5.6 billion (23%) and its science division by $34 billion (47%),...
Jamie Dimon Warns Iran War Could Keep Rates Higher for Longer — Why It Hits Your Money
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that a renewed conflict involving Iran could disrupt global energy markets, pushing oil prices higher and reigniting U.S. inflation. He explained that supply‑side shocks make inflation “sticky,” forcing the Federal Reserve to keep policy rates...
Jamie Dimon Warns of “Significant Challenges”
J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned in his annual shareholder letter that the war in Iran could trigger oil and commodity price shocks, keeping inflation sticky and pushing interest rates above market expectations. He highlighted broader geopolitical risks, including Ukraine,...
Construction Sector Leads Job Growth in March
The U.S. labor market posted modest gains in March, with the unemployment rate slipping to 4.3%. Construction led the recovery, adding 26,000 jobs, split between 14,300 in residential and 12,200 in non‑residential projects. Average hourly earnings rose 3.5% year‑over‑year, continuing...
US Fed's Austan Goolsbee, Beth Hammack Say Inflation Is Flashing 'Orange' Or Worse
Federal Reserve officials Austan Goolsbee and Beth Hammack warned that inflation remains the dominant risk, rating it at least orange and possibly moving toward red amid rising energy costs and lingering tariff effects. They both emphasized the need for tighter...
NY Fed Says March Supply Chain Pressures Highest Since Start of 2023
The New York Federal Reserve’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index rose to 0.68 in March, up from 0.54 in February, marking the highest level since early 2023. The increase follows a peak of 4.49 in December 2021, but remains well...
March Services PMI Signals Continued Growth as Costs and Global Tensions Weigh on Outlook
The Institute for Supply Management reported a March Services PMI of 54.0, marking the 21st consecutive month of expansion but a 2.1% dip from February. New orders surged to 60.6, while the employment sub‑index slipped to 45.2, indicating job contraction....
Trump’s 2027 Budget Again Aims to Halve EPA Spending
President Trump released his FY 2027 budget proposal, featuring a $1.5 trillion defense allocation—a 44% jump from the prior year—and a 10% cut to non‑defense spending, saving roughly $73 billion. The plan slashes the EPA’s discretionary authority by 52% to $4.2 billion while preserving...
S&P Global Services PMI: First Decline Since January 2023
The S&P Global U.S. Services PMI slipped to 49.8 in March, marking the sector’s first contraction since January 2023 and missing the 51.1 forecast. The dip reflects a near‑stalled 0.5% annualized growth rate, with consumer‑facing services experiencing one of the steepest...
US Bonds Steady as Traders Bet War Uncertainty Keeps Fed on Hold
Bond traders entered the week expecting the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged through the next year, leaving Treasury yields largely flat. Two‑year yields hovered near 3.86% and 10‑year yields around 4.34% after strong payroll data revived a bond‑bearish bias....
Trump’s FY27 Budget Slashes Climate and Disaster Funding, Shifting Costs to Cities and States
President Donald Trump’s FY27 budget proposes a 10% cut—about $73 billion—in non‑defense spending, targeting climate, disaster and environmental programs. The plan eliminates key FEMA preparedness grants, slashes more than $1 billion from EPA categorical grants, and trims NOAA’s budget by $1.6 billion. Funding...
US Bonds Steady as Traders Bet War Uncertainty Keeps Fed on Hold
Bond traders entered the week betting the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold, leaving two‑year Treasury yields near 3.86% and 10‑year yields around 4.34%. The market’s steadiness reflects lingering uncertainty from the Iran‑U.S. conflict, especially after President Trump...
As Minimum Wages Rise in 21 States, McDonald’s and Burger King Offer a Cautionary Tale
California's $20 fast‑food minimum wage, effective April 2024, boosted hourly pay by roughly 25% for workers at large chains. Internal data from Burger King and McDonald’s franchises show daily labor hours fell 15‑20% and overtime disappeared, even as job applications...
Elizabeth Warren Wants Wealth Tax On Jeff Bezos To Cover Insulin, Free School Meals—Crypto Analyst Calls It Moving Capital From...
Senator Elizabeth Warren has unveiled a 3% wealth tax targeting Jeff Bezos' roughly $222 billion fortune, aiming to fund insulin subsidies and free school meals. The levy would still leave Bezos with about $215 billion, prompting sharp criticism from cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo,...
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Declined in March
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) slipped to 105.72 in March, down from a revised 105.84 in February. The index, a leading composite for payroll employment, fell as five of its eight components turned negative, including consumer sentiment that...
Dems Eyeing 2028 Want Huge Tax Cuts — but Big Hikes for the Rich
A cohort of 2028 Democratic hopefuls is championing sweeping tax cuts for working‑class and middle‑income Americans, including proposals to eliminate federal income tax for roughly half of all workers and make the first $75,000 of married‑couple earnings tax‑free. At the...