Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields: March 2026
The latest analysis shows the P/E10 ratio has surged to 37.1, well above its historical average of 17.7, while inflation sits at 2.66%—inside the long‑standing “sweet spot” of 1.4%‑3.0%. At the same time, the 10‑year Treasury yield has risen to 4.25%, marking a departure from the ultra‑low‑yield environment that followed the 2008 crisis. This combination places today’s market in the same extreme‑valuation territory observed during the late‑1990s tech bubble, suggesting heightened downside risk. Investors should therefore temper return expectations amid these valuation pressures.
Key Fed Official Says Interest Rate Hike Is Possible as Gas Prices Soar
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that soaring gasoline prices, now $4.14 per gallon, could force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates if inflation remains stubborn. The Fed has kept its benchmark rate steady at 3.5‑3.75% since December, but...
Rising Rates Weigh on Mortgage Activity
Mortgage activity slipped in March as the average 30‑year fixed rate climbed to 6.37%, up 13 basis points from February. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Market Composite Index fell 4.3% month‑over‑month, though it remains 30.8% above a year ago. Refinance applications...
Bond Traders Risk Being Wrongfooted by 2022 Playbook, UBS Warns
UBS chief strategist Bhanu Baweja warns bond traders that markets are pricing a 2022‑style, coordinated central‑bank tightening in response to the Iran war, which may be unrealistic. He argues that the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England...
Trump Budget Proposal Once Again Targets Affordable Housing, Homeless Assistance
The Trump administration’s FY 2027 budget proposes a 13% cut to the Department of Housing and Urban Development, shrinking its discretionary budget to $73.5 billion. It would eliminate the $3.3 billion Community Development Block Grant and the $1.3 billion HOME Investment Partnerships Program, and...
Businesses Are Spending for the Future Despite Uncertain Times — a Good Omen for the Economy
Business investment climbed for the seventh time in eight months, reaching an all‑time high as firms poured capital into robotics, artificial intelligence and high‑performance computing. Core orders for durable goods rose 0.6% in February, lifting the year‑over‑year increase to 5.1%....
ABC: Construction Employment Rebounds by 26,000 in March
Construction employment rose by 26,000 jobs in March, marking a 0.7% year‑over‑year increase and bringing total industry growth to 57,000 positions since last year. Nonresidential construction led the gains with 12,200 new jobs across building, specialty trade, and heavy‑civil categories....
Long-Term Bullish, Near-Term Cautious
Jeremy Siegel notes that the U.S. economy remains resilient, with March payrolls exceeding expectations and unemployment edging lower. However, a still‑tight labor market, accelerating M2 growth, and rising oil prices from an ongoing geopolitical conflict make near‑term Federal Reserve easing...
Manufacturing Bounces Back in March Amid Price and War Woes
U.S. manufacturing activity expanded in March, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbing to 52.7, a modest 0.3‑point gain over February and marking the third straight month of growth. While the New Orders Index cooled, the Production Index accelerated, and the...
Hiltzik: Exploring the Moon While Cutting NASA? Why Trump's 2027 Budget Misfires
The Trump administration’s 2027‑28 budget proposal earmarks $1.5 trillion for defense—a 42% increase and the highest level in U.S. history—while slashing non‑defense spending by $73 billion. NASA’s overall budget would be cut by $5.6 billion (23%) and its science division by $34 billion (47%),...
Jamie Dimon Warns Iran War Could Keep Rates Higher for Longer — Why It Hits Your Money
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that a renewed conflict involving Iran could disrupt global energy markets, pushing oil prices higher and reigniting U.S. inflation. He explained that supply‑side shocks make inflation “sticky,” forcing the Federal Reserve to keep policy rates...
Jamie Dimon Warns of “Significant Challenges”
J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned in his annual shareholder letter that the war in Iran could trigger oil and commodity price shocks, keeping inflation sticky and pushing interest rates above market expectations. He highlighted broader geopolitical risks, including Ukraine,...
Construction Sector Leads Job Growth in March
The U.S. labor market posted modest gains in March, with the unemployment rate slipping to 4.3%. Construction led the recovery, adding 26,000 jobs, split between 14,300 in residential and 12,200 in non‑residential projects. Average hourly earnings rose 3.5% year‑over‑year, continuing...
US Fed's Austan Goolsbee, Beth Hammack Say Inflation Is Flashing 'Orange' Or Worse
Federal Reserve officials Austan Goolsbee and Beth Hammack warned that inflation remains the dominant risk, rating it at least orange and possibly moving toward red amid rising energy costs and lingering tariff effects. They both emphasized the need for tighter...
NY Fed Says March Supply Chain Pressures Highest Since Start of 2023
The New York Federal Reserve’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index rose to 0.68 in March, up from 0.54 in February, marking the highest level since early 2023. The increase follows a peak of 4.49 in December 2021, but remains well...
March Services PMI Signals Continued Growth as Costs and Global Tensions Weigh on Outlook
The Institute for Supply Management reported a March Services PMI of 54.0, marking the 21st consecutive month of expansion but a 2.1% dip from February. New orders surged to 60.6, while the employment sub‑index slipped to 45.2, indicating job contraction....
Trump’s 2027 Budget Again Aims to Halve EPA Spending
President Trump released his FY 2027 budget proposal, featuring a $1.5 trillion defense allocation—a 44% jump from the prior year—and a 10% cut to non‑defense spending, saving roughly $73 billion. The plan slashes the EPA’s discretionary authority by 52% to $4.2 billion while preserving...
S&P Global Services PMI: First Decline Since January 2023
The S&P Global U.S. Services PMI slipped to 49.8 in March, marking the sector’s first contraction since January 2023 and missing the 51.1 forecast. The dip reflects a near‑stalled 0.5% annualized growth rate, with consumer‑facing services experiencing one of the steepest...
US Bonds Steady as Traders Bet War Uncertainty Keeps Fed on Hold
Bond traders entered the week expecting the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged through the next year, leaving Treasury yields largely flat. Two‑year yields hovered near 3.86% and 10‑year yields around 4.34% after strong payroll data revived a bond‑bearish bias....
Trump’s FY27 Budget Slashes Climate and Disaster Funding, Shifting Costs to Cities and States
President Donald Trump’s FY27 budget proposes a 10% cut—about $73 billion—in non‑defense spending, targeting climate, disaster and environmental programs. The plan eliminates key FEMA preparedness grants, slashes more than $1 billion from EPA categorical grants, and trims NOAA’s budget by $1.6 billion. Funding...
US Bonds Steady as Traders Bet War Uncertainty Keeps Fed on Hold
Bond traders entered the week betting the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold, leaving two‑year Treasury yields near 3.86% and 10‑year yields around 4.34%. The market’s steadiness reflects lingering uncertainty from the Iran‑U.S. conflict, especially after President Trump...
As Minimum Wages Rise in 21 States, McDonald’s and Burger King Offer a Cautionary Tale
California's $20 fast‑food minimum wage, effective April 2024, boosted hourly pay by roughly 25% for workers at large chains. Internal data from Burger King and McDonald’s franchises show daily labor hours fell 15‑20% and overtime disappeared, even as job applications...
Elizabeth Warren Wants Wealth Tax On Jeff Bezos To Cover Insulin, Free School Meals—Crypto Analyst Calls It Moving Capital From...
Senator Elizabeth Warren has unveiled a 3% wealth tax targeting Jeff Bezos' roughly $222 billion fortune, aiming to fund insulin subsidies and free school meals. The levy would still leave Bezos with about $215 billion, prompting sharp criticism from cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo,...
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Declined in March
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) slipped to 105.72 in March, down from a revised 105.84 in February. The index, a leading composite for payroll employment, fell as five of its eight components turned negative, including consumer sentiment that...
Dems Eyeing 2028 Want Huge Tax Cuts — but Big Hikes for the Rich
A cohort of 2028 Democratic hopefuls is championing sweeping tax cuts for working‑class and middle‑income Americans, including proposals to eliminate federal income tax for roughly half of all workers and make the first $75,000 of married‑couple earnings tax‑free. At the...
The High Price of Everything, Explained
Vox’s Explain It to Me podcast breaks down why everyday essentials—gasoline, coffee, and milk—are hitting record prices. Gas prices surge as the Iran‑Houthi conflict chokes the Strait of Hormuz, limiting crude supplies and forcing the U.S. to import heavier grades...
Inflation or Recession? The Tug of War in Bond Markets
The yield on the benchmark ten‑year U.S. Treasury bond has swung dramatically, dipping below 4% on Feb. 27, spiking above 4.4% by March 27, and then retreating again. The rapid movement reflects heightened market sensitivity to geopolitical shocks, notably the American‑Israeli war...
How Trump’s Budget Request Will Keep Everyone Guessing
President Trump’s new budget request leverages the Office of Management and Budget’s pocket rescission tool to push a $1.5 trillion defense increase, $73 billion domestic cuts, and a $350 billion defense aid package via reconciliation. The administration hopes to force Congress into a...
US Inflation Seen Spiking in First Snapshot Since Iran War
The U.S. consumer price index for March is expected to rise 1% month‑over‑month, the steepest gain since 2022. The jump is largely attributed to a roughly $1‑per‑gallon increase in gasoline prices following the Iran‑Israel conflict. This surge will be the...
What’s an ‘E-Shaped’ Economy — and Where Do You Fit in It?
U.S. economists are now labeling the post‑pandemic recovery an “E‑shaped” economy, where the middle class forms the central bar of the letter while the upper and lower tiers diverge upward and downward. The model builds on the earlier K‑shaped narrative...
College Grads in ‘AI-Proof’ Careers Like Psychology and Education Are Seeing Negative Returns on Their Degrees
A new report from the Postsecondary Education and Economic Research Center finds that graduate degrees in traditionally "AI‑proof" fields such as psychology and education generate negative cost‑adjusted returns, with psychology at –8% and clinical psychology at –5%. Even high‑earning majors...
Mortgage and Refinance Interest Rates Today, April 4, 2026: Down a Quarter Point Since Last Weekend
Mortgage rates have fallen for five consecutive days, with the national 30‑year fixed rate dropping to 6.22%, a quarter‑point decline since last weekend. The 15‑year fixed rate also eased to 5.72%, while refinance rates remain higher, averaging 6.43% for a...
New Proposal to Send $1,000 Direct Payments to Millions of Americans
Representative Henry Cuellar introduced the American Consumer Tariff Rebate Act of 2026, a House proposal that would issue direct payments of roughly $1,000 to $2,000 to eligible U.S. households. The legislation aims to offset an estimated $231 billion in consumer costs...
AGC's Data DIGest: March 30-April 3, 2026
Construction employment in March 2026 reached 8.33 million, up 0.7 % year‑over‑year, driven by a 1.7 % rise in non‑residential jobs while residential employment fell 0.9 %. Average hourly earnings for production workers jumped 5 % to $38.62, outpacing the broader private sector. Job openings...
White House Seeks 12% Cut to HHS in 2027
The White House’s FY 2027 budget proposal slashes the Health and Human Services (HHS) discretionary budget by $15.8 billion, a 12.5% cut from FY 2026. The National Institutes of Health would see funding drop $5 billion to $41 billion, and several agencies—including the National Institute...
White House Seeks 12% Cut to HHS in 2027
The White House’s FY 2027 budget request calls for a 12.5% cut to the Department of Health and Human Services, slashing $15.8 billion from the agency’s discretionary budget. The proposal trims NIH funding by $5 billion, eliminates the National Institute on Minority Health...
Policy Week in Review – April 3, 2026
The White House unveiled its FY27 budget request, calling for $2.2 trillion overall with a 44% boost to national defense spending. Non‑defense outlays are slated to shrink by 10%, including a 26% cut to the Department of Labor’s $9.9 billion budget and...
President's Budget Would Slash USDA Spending by $4.9B
The FY2027 budget request from the Trump administration proposes a $4.9 billion, or 19 percent, cut to USDA, eliminating the Food for Peace and McGovern‑Dole international aid programs and slashing other key initiatives. It earmarks $50 million to move USDA staff to regional...
Manufacturing Employment Bounces Back in March, Adding 15K Jobs
U.S. manufacturing employment rebounded in March, adding 15,000 jobs—a 400% year‑over‑year increase after earlier losses. The transportation equipment and fabricated metal products sectors drove most of the gains, while the chemical industry posted the largest decline. Unemployment in manufacturing rose...
Why Is the Labor Market Stuck?
Chief economics correspondent Ben Casselman explains that the U.S. labor market is caught in a "low‑hire, low‑fire" cycle, where hiring has stalled even as job openings stay elevated. Unemployment hovers around 3.7% while the quits rate dropped to a decade‑low...
Job Growth Rebounds in March
The U.S. labor market posted a modest rebound in March, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 178,000 after a revised February loss of 133,000 jobs. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.3%, while job gains were led by healthcare, construction, and transportation...
U.S. Economy: Growth Projections Amid Rising Public Pessimism
The Federal Reserve’s March outlook projects the U.S. economy to grow at roughly 2% annually through 2028, with inflation hovering near 2.5% and unemployment edging toward 4.0%. At the same time, the latest consumer confidence index slipped below 60, marking...
What to Know About the Report.
The March 2026 jobs report showed employers added 178,000 positions, pulling the unemployment rate down to 4.3%. Health‑care led the gains with 76,000 jobs, while wage growth slowed to a 3.5% annual pace, barely keeping up with inflation. Federal employment...
Truck Transportation Jobs Running at an 8-Year Low: BLS
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that truck‑transportation employment fell to 1,464,100 jobs in March, the lowest level since December 2017. The three‑month series—January 1,465,600, February 1,464,900, March 1,464,100—shows a steady decline, erasing pandemic‑era gains. This figure is down 27,300 jobs...
Economist Slok Sees ‘Nike Swoosh’ Recovery for US
Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok predicts a "Nike swoosh" recovery for the U.S. economy, citing a three‑month average of 68,000 jobs—well above the Federal Reserve’s 10,000 break‑even threshold. He points to three emerging tailwinds: accelerated AI‑related data‑center spending, an industrial...
Construction Employment Rebounds by 26,000 in March
The U.S. construction sector added 26,000 jobs in March, lifting year‑over‑year employment by 57,000 positions, a 0.7% increase. Nonresidential construction drove the bulk of the gain, contributing 12,200 jobs across building, specialty trade, and heavy civil categories. The industry’s unemployment...
Unemployment Falls to 4.3% in March as Spring Housing Market Looks for Firmer Footing
The March jobs report showed the unemployment rate slipping to 4.3% as non‑farm payrolls rose by 178,000, outpacing expectations. February’s employment figures were revised down to a loss of 133,000, highlighting volatility in recent labor data. Wage growth eased to...
Unemployment Has Increased for U.S.-born Workers in the Face of Mass Deportations: Trump’s Draconian Immigration Enforcement Is Harming All Workers
During the 2024 campaign, Trump and Vance claimed mass deportations would free jobs for Americans. Recent labor data contradicts that promise: the three‑month average unemployment rate for U.S.-born workers rose to 4.3% in 2026, up from 4.0% in 2024. Economic...
U.S. Added 178,000 Jobs In March; Movie And Music Employment Declines
The U.S. labor market added 178,000 jobs in March, pulling the unemployment rate down to 4.3%. Health care, construction, and transportation and warehousing posted the strongest gains, while the movies and music sectors shed 1,100 jobs. The Bureau of Labor...
US Bonds Fall as Strong Jobs Data Undermines Fed Cut Outlook
U.S. Treasury prices slipped after March employment numbers outperformed expectations, pushing yields up three to four basis points across the curve. The robust jobs report reinforced the view that the labor market is stabilizing, prompting traders to discard bets on...