US March Non-Farm Payrolls +178K vs +60K Expected
U.S. non‑farm payrolls surged by 178,000 in March, far outpacing the 60,000 jobs analysts expected. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% versus a forecast of 4.4%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month‑over‑month and 3.5% year‑over‑year, slightly above expectations. Strong gains appeared in health care (+76K) and construction (+26K), whereas government employment slipped by 8,000. Despite the headline strength, labor‑force participation dipped to 61.9%, hinting at underlying slack.
Locked and Loaded for the March Edition of Non-Farm Payrolls
The U.S. non‑farm payroll (NFP) report is being released on Good Friday, a day when U.S. equity and bond markets are closed. Despite the holiday, the data will still drive market sentiment, with S&P 500 futures already down 17 points....
US Job Market Cools as Openings Fall
US labor market showed signs of cooling in February as job openings dropped to 6.9 million, the lowest level in months. Private payroll growth slowed to an average of 18,000 jobs per month while layoffs held steady, indicating employers are pausing...
Kudlow -Thursday, April 2
On Thursday, April 2, Fox Business aired a special episode of Larry Kudlow's program, featuring a roundtable on domestic and global economic policies. The show highlighted a presidential address and an interview with former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi focusing...
Mortgage Rates Climb for 5th Week as Iran War Weighs on U.S. Housing Market
The average 30‑year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.46% on Thursday, according to Freddie Mac, marking a five‑week streak of increases and the highest level since early September. The climb follows a dip below 6% earlier in the year, which was...
Another Fed Rate Cut Still Possible but Far From Guaranteed
The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.5‑3.75 % after the March 2026 meeting, with only one dissenting vote for a cut. The latest dot‑plot shows 12 of 19 policymakers still expect at least one more reduction this year,...
Fed's Logan: I Wasn't Convinced Inflation Was Easing Enough Even Before the War Started
Dallas Fed President Logan said he remains unconvinced that inflation is easing sufficiently, even before the Ukraine war escalated. He highlighted the difficulty of forecasting amid geopolitical uncertainty, but noted that a swift war resolution could limit economic damage. Logan stressed...
US Trade Deficit Widens in February As Imports Offset Record Exports
The U.S. trade deficit widened 4.9% in February, reaching $57.3 billion as a 4.3% jump in imports offset a record‑high $314.8 billion export total. Imports were buoyed by AI‑related capital equipment, while goods exports surged 5.9% to an all‑time high. The goods...
Total Nonfarm Payrolls for March 2026 Are Projected to Rise By 60,000
The median forecast for March 2026 non‑farm payrolls predicts a gain of 60,000 jobs, a sharp rebound after February’s 92,000‑job decline. This estimate far exceeds the 12‑month average increase of 13,000, indicating a potential turnaround in hiring momentum. Unemployment is expected...
IMF Says US Fed Has Little Scope for Rate Cuts This Year
The International Monetary Fund’s latest Article IV review finds U.S. inflation on track to meet the Federal Reserve’s 2 % target in early 2027, but signals minimal room for rate cuts this year. IMF staff project only a single policy rate reduction...
Challenger Report: March Cuts Rise 25% From February, AI Leads Reasons
U.S. employers announced 60,620 job cuts in March, a 25% increase from February but still 78% lower than March 2025. Technology, transportation and healthcare accounted for the highest cuts, with technology up 40% YoY and transportation soaring 703% YoY. Artificial...
Stagflation Fears Are Back: These 3 Stocks Can Help You Ride Out the Storm
Search interest in “stagflation 2026” has surged 650% as the U.S. economy shows signs of stagnation and rising inflation, highlighted by a 92,000‑job loss in February and a 40% recession probability. Analysts point to oil price spikes as the likely...
STAT+: Trump Administration Prepares 100% Tariffs on some Imported Drugs
The Trump administration is poised to issue an order that would levy a 100% tariff on imports of patented medicines and their active pharmaceutical ingredients. A draft of the order suggests the tariffs could be announced as early as Thursday,...
Premature Termination of Unemployment Benefits Increased COVID-19 Transmission and Deaths in the USA
A new study in Nature Human Behaviour finds that states that ended pandemic unemployment insurance (UI) in summer 2021 saw sharp spikes in COVID‑19 outcomes. Weekly case rates rose by 0.18 percentage points, hospitalizations increased by 0.18 per 1,000, and deaths grew...
Black Work, and the Myth of a Gender Divide: What the Employment Numbers Really Say About Family Stability
In February 2026 Black unemployment rates were nearly identical—7.0% for men and 7.1% for women—yet both far exceed the national adult average of about 4%. Black women accounted for the larger share of employed Black adults (10.6 million versus 9.4 million men)...
All Unemployment Is Local
Chief economist Gad Levanon of the Burning Glass Institute shows that, between 2022 and 2025, U.S. metros with higher concentrations of college‑educated workers experienced a sharp rise in unemployment, reversing a decade‑long trend. Cities such as San Jose, San Francisco, Boston,...
US Retail Sales Rebound in February, Beating Projections
U.S. retail sales rebounded in February, climbing 0.6% from January after three months of decline. Clothing sales led the recovery, rising 2% month‑over‑month and 6% year‑over‑year. Department stores posted a 3% gain and health‑and‑personal‑care stores rose 2.3% month‑over‑month. The uptick...
March ISM Report: Manufacturing PMI Reaches Highest Level Since August 2022
The Institute for Supply Management’s March 2026 Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7, the strongest reading since August 2022 and a modest gain over February. New orders slowed while production stayed robust, and the employment index remained in contraction territory. The...
Bowman Says Capital Changes Will Fuel Small-Business Lending
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michele Bowman unveiled a proposed capital framework that could free up to $100 billion for small‑business lending by lowering risk‑weightings on bank assets under Basel III. The change targets community and regional banks that hold roughly...
No Foolin': ADP Jobs Led by Small Companies
ADP’s March payroll report shows 62,000 private‑sector jobs added, surpassing the 39,000 forecast. Small firms with fewer than 50 employees drove the surge, creating about 85,000 positions, while large corporations lost 4,000 jobs. Education and healthcare led hiring with 58,000...
US Manufacturing Showing Greater Resilience
U.S. manufacturing showed unexpected strength in March as the ISM Manufacturing index rose to 52.7, the highest level since August 2022 and above consensus forecasts. Production accelerated to 55.1, buoyed by a solid backlog of new orders, while new‑order sentiment...
Private Sector Added 62K Jobs in March
ADP reported that private‑sector payroll added 62,000 jobs in March, with small businesses (1‑19 employees) accounting for 112,000 of those positions. While firms with 20‑49 and 50‑249 employees shed jobs, larger establishments added modest gains, resulting in a net increase...
Retail Sales See Gains, Reports Commerce
United States retail sales in February rose 0.6% month‑over‑month to $738.4 billion, marking a 3.7% increase year‑over‑year. Non‑store retailers, led by e‑commerce, posted a 7.5% annual gain while food services rose 5.2%. The National Retail Federation (NRF) now forecasts 2026 retail...
Job Openings Fall to 6.9 Million in February, Another Hint of Sluggish Hiring in America
U.S. job openings fell to 6.9 million in February, down from 7.2 million in January, while quits dropped to the lowest level since August 2020. Gross hires slipped to 4.85 million, the fewest since April 2020, pushing the hiring rate to 3.1 percent, also a pandemic‑era...
Iran War Threatens Trump Dream of Lower Interest Rates
The Iran‑Russia war has reignited a supply‑side shock, pushing 10‑year Treasury yields up about 35 basis points to roughly 4.30%, the steepest monthly decline since President Trump returned to the White House. The closure of the Hormuz Strait, which carries...
Consumer Confidence Inches up Despite Iran War, Rising Gas Price
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index edged up to 91.8 in March, despite the Iran‑related war driving gas prices to $4 per gallon and inflating short‑term inflation expectations to a six‑month high. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan survey showed a...
The Macroeconomic Budget and Health Care Projection Dashboard, Revisited: Can You Put the US Back on a Sustainable Path?
The American Enterprise Institute released an updated macroeconomic projection model that forecasts U.S. federal debt, deficits, and health‑care spending far exceeding CBO estimates. A new interactive dashboard lets users adjust tax rates, Social Security benefits, health‑care elasticities, and investment levels...
Republicans Have Come Up With the Worst Budgeting Idea Possibly Ever
Republican House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington is pushing a plan to fund up to $200 billion for the Iran war and stricter immigration enforcement by reviving cost‑sharing health‑care reductions. The Congressional Budget Office estimates these cuts could save $30 billion but...
Interpreting Labor Signals in a High-Revision Regime
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly nonfarm payroll reports have become increasingly unreliable, with initial figures routinely overstating job growth and subsequent revisions pulling numbers down sharply. Over the past year, the amplitude of these revisions has surged, prompting concerns...
Soft Construction Labor Market Shows Decline for Open Positions
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that construction job openings fell to 202,000 in February, down from 230,000 in January and 255,000 a year earlier. Overall U.S. job openings slipped to 6.88 million, a decline from January’s 7.24 million. The...
Chicago PMI Expands for Third Straight Month
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index fell 4.9 points to 52.8 in March, marking the third consecutive month of expansion despite missing the 54.8 forecast. A reading above 50 signals growth, but the decline suggests weakening momentum. Historically, 52.8 is lower...
March 2026 Jobs Report Preview: What to Expect
The March 2026 jobs report is expected to show a further slowdown, with total job gains likely falling below the already‑weak three‑month average of 8,000. Health care and social assistance should remain the only sector posting net hires, while restaurants...
Credit Card APRs Have an 'Economically Meaningful' Impact on Consumer Spending, Boston Fed Finds
The Boston Federal Reserve’s new paper shows that a one‑percentage‑point rise in credit‑card APR cuts overall card spending by about nine percent, roughly $74 per consumer each month, and up to fifteen percent for balance‑carrying borrowers, especially lower‑income households. Average...
What a US Fed Rate Hike Could Mean for These Key Stock Sectors
The Federal Reserve’s odds of raising rates in 2026 have jumped to about 20% after the Iran war sparked a 30% surge in gasoline prices and renewed inflation worries. Analysts warn that a rate hike would push investors into a...
Jerome Powell Says the $39 Trillion National Debt Is ‘Not Unsustainable,’ but Warns the Trajectory ‘Will Not End Well’
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Harvard students that the United States’ $39 trillion national debt is not immediately unsustainable, but the current fiscal trajectory is. He warned that debt is growing faster than the economy, pushing the debt‑to‑GDP ratio toward...
Adam Lewis, General Manager, Talent and Workforce Management, Viventium — Founder, Apploi
Health care hiring remains a primary engine of U.S. job growth, projected to add 693,000 positions by 2025. Without those additions, the broader economy would lose roughly 570,000 jobs, highlighting a stark labor gap. Viventium’s acquisition of Apploi positions the...
Jeffrey Sherman: Oil Price Causing Its Own Rate Hike | CNBC
Jeffrey Sherman of DoubleLine told CNBC that soaring oil prices are effectively creating a self‑inflicted rate hike, urging the Federal Reserve to look beyond commodity‑driven inflation and focus on labor‑market dynamics. He cautioned against aggressive cuts to the federal‑funds rate,...
Fed Chair Powell Sees No Threat of Private Credit 'Contagion,' Says Interest Rates Are in a 'Good Place'
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told a Harvard audience that private‑credit markets are experiencing a correction but pose no immediate contagion risk to the broader financial system. He said the Fed is closely monitoring any links to banks and finds...
BIG NUMBER 3.73%
Investors now expect the Federal Reserve’s benchmark federal funds rate to end 2026 at 3.73%, near the top of its current 3.50‑3.75% range. This marks a 70‑basis‑point increase from a month ago when three cuts were anticipated, driven by heightened...
Treasury Curve Steepens After Weeks of Flattening
The U.S. Treasury yield curve, which has been flattening throughout 2026, showed a modest steepening on Friday as the 5‑year note held at 4.07% and the 30‑year bond nudged up to 4.98% by market close. The move came after bullish...
Treasury Yields Slip as Trump Talks About Peace, Ahead of Labor Data
Treasury yields slipped as President Trump hinted at progress in peace talks and investors turned to upcoming labor data. The 10‑year yield fell to about 4.37% and the two‑year to 3.86% early, later adjusting to roughly 4.40% and 3.89% per...
Markets Move to Price in Rate Hikes as Inflation Fears and Geopolitics Reshape Fed Expectations
Markets have shifted from expecting Federal Reserve cuts to pricing in rate hikes for 2026. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows about a 30% chance rates will end the year higher than the current 3.50‑3.75% range, while odds of cuts...
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U.S. Unemployment Rate by President
The analysis ranks average annual unemployment rates for U.S. presidents from Truman through Biden, noting that Lyndon B. Johnson posted the lowest post‑World War II average at 4.18% while Gerald Ford recorded the highest at 7.76%. It explains that unemployment is...
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Understanding Producer Price Index: A Key Inflation Indicator
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures price changes at the wholesale level, capturing the cost producers receive for goods and services. It is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and is broken into crude, intermediate, and core...
US Job Market Likely Thawed Out This Month After February Chill
U.S. employment is projected to rebound in March after February’s sharp 92,000‑job loss, the steepest payroll decline since the pandemic began. Bloomberg’s median survey predicts roughly 60,000 new jobs for the month, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold...
It Was an Ugly Week on Wall Street, Andrew Bary Says
Andrew Bary described the past week on Wall Street as "ugly," highlighting a sharp decline in major equity indexes and heightened volatility. The S&P 500 slipped more than 3% as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone and weaker...
Consumer Confidence Continues to Drop as Gas Prices Rise
U.S. consumer confidence slipped 6% in March, reaching its lowest level since December, as gasoline prices rose to an average $3.98 per gallon—a full dollar increase from the prior month. The University of Michigan’s survey shows short‑run economic outlook plunging...
Rising Treasury Yields Are Spooking Investors: Should Buy-and-Hold Investors Care?
The 10‑Year Treasury yield, which peaked above 5% in late 2023, has rebounded to roughly 4.4% after a dip to 3.8% in August 2024, reflecting lingering inflation and geopolitical risks. The Federal Reserve has held rates steady this year, but...
Analysis: What Might Trip up Kevin Warsh and His Agenda as Fed Chair
Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor backed by President Trump, is poised for a contentious nomination as Federal Reserve chair. He advocates rapid rate cuts despite $100‑a‑barrel oil prices and rising inflation forecasts, while also promising to slash the Fed’s...
Morgan Stanley Gets Fed Green Light to Realign German Unit
The Federal Reserve voted 4‑3 to grant Morgan Stanley an exception allowing its German investment bank to be folded into its U.S. holding company, sidestepping Section 23A limits on foreign affiliate ownership. All three Democratic board members dissented, arguing the move...