Rising Crude Prices May Push US Towards Recession, Warns Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi
Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warned that a 49% chance of a U.S. recession looms within the next year as crude oil prices surge amid the U.S.-Iran conflict. Brent crude jumped nearly 40% in March, reaching $119.50 per barrel, while the U.S. economy grew at a sluggish 0.7% annualized rate in Q4, its weakest performance since early 2025. Zandi’s machine‑learning indicator flags oil price spikes as a key recession trigger, echoing patterns seen in every post‑World War II downturn except the pandemic. Continued price pressure could tip the economy into contraction.
The US Consumer Is Hitting a Rough Patch
U.S. consumers showed surprising resilience in January, with discretionary retail sales climbing 6% year‑over‑year despite a dip in sentiment. Analysts, however, warn that rising credit‑card debt, higher delinquency rates and mounting fuel costs could erode that strength by 2026. Forecasts...
February Pending Home Sales Edge Up 1.8% Amid Shifting Market
Pending home sales in February rose 1.8% month‑over‑month but slipped 0.8% year‑over‑year, reflecting a modest rebound after a brief dip in mortgage rates. Active inventory jumped 7.9% YoY, giving buyers more leverage in many regions. The South and West posted...
Redfin Economists’ Weekly Take: Rates Will Jump Around As Markets Weigh Iran War and Fed Outlook
Redfin economists expect mortgage rates to keep oscillating as the Iran‑Israel conflict pushes energy prices higher and markets brace for the Federal Reserve’s second‑to‑last FOMC meeting this week. Mortgage rates have climbed from roughly 6.0% to 6.36%, while the ten‑year...
Rates Spark: The Impact Is No Longer Transitory
The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield is projected to climb into a 4.25‑4.5% band before easing back toward 4%, driven by higher nominal and real yields after the war’s shock. Even as the conflict winds down, inflation expectations remain structurally elevated,...
The Health Care Job Market
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total non‑farm payrolls fell by 92,000 jobs in February, with health‑care employment shrinking by 28,000 jobs after a wave of worker strikes. Despite the dip, the health‑care sector has added an average of...
PS Quarterly Interview: Desmond Lachman
In a recent Project Syndicate interview, economist Desmond Lachman warns that President Donald Trump’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy could revive bond‑market vigilantes and destabilize the U.S. Treasury market. He argues that such stress may puncture the soaring AI‑related equity rally and...
It Was Unthinkable a Couple of Weeks Ago, but Could the Next Move by the Fed Be a Rate Hike?
The Federal Reserve’s March 18 meeting may break the recent easing trend as traders assign a roughly 25% probability to a rate hike, driven by a sharp oil‑price surge linked to the Iran conflict. Chief economist Carl Weinberg warns that...
Democrats Propose Erasing Income Tax for Half of U.S. Workers
Senators Cory Booker and Chris Van Hollen introduced separate bills that would essentially erase federal income tax for households earning under $75,000, expanding the tax‑free income shield to as much as $92,000 for married couples. Van Hollen’s Working Americans’ Tax...
The Iran War Is a New Test of America's Economic Superpower
Despite the Iran‑Iran war threatening oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and pushing crude prices above $103 a barrel, the United States economy continues to show resilience. Recent data show unemployment at 4.4% and Q1 2025 GDP growth projected...
Trump Seeks to Close $1.6 Trillion Revenue Gap with Raft of New Tariffs
The Trump administration is launching a series of Section 301 investigations and new duties to recoup roughly $1.6 trillion in tariff revenue lost after a Supreme Court ruling. The probes will examine 16 economies for excess factory capacity and dozens more for...
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Federal Funds Rate Vs. LIBOR: Key Differences Explained
The Federal Reserve sets the U.S. federal funds rate, an overnight benchmark that shapes domestic liquidity, inflation, and employment. LIBOR, by contrast, is a London‑based multi‑currency benchmark derived from bank submissions and has long guided global short‑term lending. While both...
What Happens at $200 a Barrel?
Economists warn that a sustained $200 per barrel WTI price would trigger a systemic shock to the U.S. economy. At that level, gasoline could top $7 per gallon, eroding over $400 billion in discretionary consumer spending and deepening energy poverty. The...
U.S. Job Openings Rise to a Better-than-Expected 7 Million Despite Sluggish Labor Market
U.S. job openings rose to 6.95 million in January, surpassing economists' expectations. Layoffs edged lower while quits slipped modestly, indicating tepid worker confidence. Despite the higher posting count, hiring remains weak, with the market described as a hiring recession. The broader...
Hiring Remains Flat While Layoffs Edge Down in January
January job openings increased by 396,000 to 6.9 million, lifting the openings rate to 4.2% after a five‑year low in December. Hires held steady at 5.3 million, while total separations fell, with quits down 88,000 and layoffs decreasing by 35,000 to the...
U.S. Economy Has Lost Jobs Under Trump Tariffs, 'Gold Standard' Jobs Data Shows
The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) – the “gold standard” of jobs data – shows U.S. employers added only 123,000 jobs in the 12 months through September 2025, far below the 636,000 reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics...
Flat Conditions for Open Construction Jobs
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that construction job openings were essentially flat in January, with 231,000 vacancies, matching the level a year earlier. Overall U.S. job openings rose to 6.20 million, up from December but down from a year ago....
U.S. Economy Expanded at Just 0.7% in 4th Quarter
The Commerce Department revised fourth‑quarter 2023 GDP growth to a modest 0.7% annualized, far below the initial 1.4% estimate and the 3.8%‑4.4% pace of the prior two quarters. The downgrade reflects a 16.7% plunge in federal government spending after the...
Barclays Pushes Back Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts
Barclays economists now expect the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in September 2024, pushing the next reduction to March 2027. This postpones the earlier June and September 2024 cuts the bank had forecast. Market pricing has collapsed to just 22.5...
China’s Import Silence Is Deafening. The Corn & Ethanol Report 03/13/2026
USDA’s TOTAL survey shows over 2.1 million landlords control 347.8 million rented acres, generating $34.1 billion in rent, with non‑operating entities owning 79% of this land. Meanwhile, US sorghum prices remain flat as Chinese import demand stays silent, leaving future demand uncertain pending...
Why Jerome Powell Is Going to Focus on Stagflation
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is shifting focus to stagflation as sluggish growth meets persistent core‑PCE inflation, prompting the Fed to keep policy rates steady. The resulting “higher‑for‑longer” stance is lifting 10‑year Treasury yields, which directly raise 30‑year mortgage rates....
Economy Expanded at Sluggish 0.7% in Q4
The Commerce Department’s third estimate cut fourth‑quarter 2025 GDP to a 0.7 percent annualized rate, half the 1.4 percent advance figure. Growth fell sharply from a 4.4 percent surge in Q3 2024, driven by a 43‑day federal shutdown that slashed government spending and...
US Economy Ended 2025 on Weaker Footing than Previously Thought
The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth‑quarter 2025 data, showing GDP growth slowed to 1.5% annualized, well below the 2.2% forecast earlier this year. The downgrade reflects weaker consumer spending, a modest rebound in inflation, and a softening labor market....
JOLTs Job Openings for January 6.946M vs 6.700M Estimate
The Labor Department’s JOLTS report showed January job openings at 6.946 million, surpassing the 6.7 million forecast. Hires rose modestly to 5.294 million, while quits slipped to 3.137 million and layoffs edged down to 1.631 million. Looking ahead, the 2025 annual averages project job openings...
University of Michigan Sentiment (Preliminary) for March 55.5 versus 55.0 Estimate
The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index slipped to 55.5 in March, missing the 55.0 forecast and marking the year’s lowest reading. Current‑conditions sentiment rose to 57.8, while expectations fell to 54.1, the weakest since last November. Year‑ahead inflation...
GDP Downgrade Puts Fed in a Bind as Inflation Stays Elevated
The Commerce Department revised fourth‑quarter 2025 GDP down to a 0.7% annualized gain, half the initial estimate and far below the 1.4% growth economists expected for the year. The downgrade reflects weaker consumer and government spending, softer exports, and a...
Custom Home Building Expanded in 2025
Despite a 6% decline in overall single‑family housing starts in 2025, custom home building posted growth. NAHB data show 186,000 custom starts for the year, a 3% increase over 2024, even though fourth‑quarter starts slipped 4% year‑over‑year. Custom homes now...
Daily Spotlight: Can GDP's Engine Run on $4 Gas?
The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its second estimate for fourth‑quarter GDP today, following an advance reading of 1.4% annualized growth, down from 4.4% in the prior quarter. Analysts will focus on the resilience of consumer spending and business...
Inflation Holds Steady but Economic Pressures Persist as Americans Question Real Income Growth
U.S. inflation has plateaued, with the consumer price index rising about 3.2% year‑over‑year in March, down from the double‑digit peaks of 2022. Core price pressures, however, stay above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, keeping monetary policy on hold. Meanwhile, wage...
Fed Reveals Plan to Ease Banks’ Capital Requirements, Boost Mortgage Lending
The Federal Reserve announced it will overhaul capital rules for large banks, moving to a single standardized risk‑based framework that explicitly accounts for loan‑to‑value ratios. Under the proposal, lower‑LTV mortgages would carry lighter capital charges, while high‑LTV loans face higher...
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Republicans Propose Cutting Capital Gains Taxes on Home Sales to Boost the Housing Market
Republican lawmakers have asked Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to use executive authority to index capital gains on primary residences to inflation. Indexing would adjust the cost basis, potentially reducing taxable gains for long‑term homeowners, especially higher‑income sellers. The proposal builds...
Market Wrap
The U.S. economy showed resilience in early 2026 despite a sharp drop in consumer confidence, which fell to 84.5 – the lowest since May 2014. Manufacturing activity rebounded, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbing to 52.6, the strongest pace in...
Gundlach Unlocked: Positioning for Inflation and a Weaker Dollar
In the inaugural Gundlach Unlocked webcast, DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach warned that inflation is likely to stay above the Fed’s 2 % target, long‑term rates remain elevated despite recent cuts, and the U.S. dollar may enter a weaker phase. He outlined...
How AI Spending Is Impacting the U.S. Economy
AI-driven capital expenditures are currently contributing just over one percentage point to U.S. GDP growth, buoyed by a stock‑market rally that has turned consumption into a bubble‑like surge. Much of this spending is financed through vulnerable credit structures, raising concerns...
U.S. Trade Deficit Falls in January
The U.S. trade deficit shrank to $54.5 billion in January, a 25 percent drop from December. Exports rose 5.5 percent to $302.1 billion, driven by gold, computers and other precious metals, while imports slipped 0.7 percent to $356.6 billion. The narrowing gap appears amid a tariff...
The Relationship Among Oil Prices, Food Costs, and Consumer Inflation
U.S. military actions in the Middle East have driven Brent crude sharply higher, reviving scrutiny of oil’s influence on broader price levels. Historical FRED data reveal that oil price movements have consistently co‑moved with the Global Food Price Index and...
3 Consumer Staples Mutual Funds Amid Inflation, Global Turmoil
The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in February, bringing the year‑over‑year CPI to 2.4% while core inflation held steady at 2.5%. Higher inflation typically pressures discretionary spending more than essential consumer staples, whose demand remains relatively inelastic. In this...
Placer.ai Macroeconomic Indicators Analysis, February 2026 – Placer.ai Blog
Placer.ai’s February 2026 macro analysis shows a bifurcated U.S. consumer—price‑sensitive shoppers gravitate toward value retailers while still allocating funds for discretionary indulgences. Retail foot‑traffic remains broadly positive YoY despite weather‑driven dips, and e‑commerce fulfillment centers are logging high‑single‑digit visit growth fueled...
Implications of the Trump Retirement Accounts Proposal
President Trump’s proposed Trump Retirement Accounts (TRA) would offer a federal match up to $1,000 per worker, aiming to extend retirement savings to the 63 million Americans without employer plans. RAND modeling shows the program is deficit‑neutral after 23‑31 years if account...
Peter Linneman On AI And Why The Economy Is Healthier Than It Appears
Peter Linneman told the University of Miami conference that recent data shows the U.S. economy is healthier than many fear, with modest job growth and 2.2% GDP expansion in 2025. He argued AI will boost productivity and generate new jobs...
Market Update: TPR, EQR, CBOE
U.S. headline CPI held steady at 2.4% year‑over‑year in February, matching January, while core CPI remained at 2.5%. The data largely met expectations, leaving inflation pressure unchanged. Equities were mixed to lower at midday, with financial services and real estate...
Iran Conflict Stalls Big Purchases Like Homes and Cars For 1 in 4 Americans; Most Are Undeterred
A Redfin‑commissioned survey finds 25% of Americans are delaying or canceling major purchases such as homes or cars because of the military conflict with Iran, while 56% say the war has no impact on their buying plans. The conflict’s effect...
Federal Science Cuts May Have Ripple Effect on Universities
The 2025 Canadian federal budget mandates a 15% operating‑cost reduction for most departments by 2030, while research granting agencies see only a 2% cut. Cuts target Innovation, Science and Economic Development, Fisheries and Oceans, Environment and Climate Change, among others,...
US Inflation Stable Ahead of Iran Shock
US consumer price index held steady in February at a 2.4% year‑over‑year increase, matching the previous month. The pause came just before the US‑Israel conflict in Iran sparked a sharp jump in oil prices, pushing gasoline above $3.50 per gallon....
Single-Family Permits End 2025 on a Soft Note
Single-family housing permits slipped to 909,280 units in 2025, a 7.4% year‑over‑year decline, while multifamily permits rose to 516,886 units, up 5.6%. The downturn was most pronounced in the South and West, where single‑family activity fell 8.5% and 10.4% respectively,...
Since February, Rising Gas Prices Have Added to Inflation.
U.S. gasoline prices have surged 20% since the Feb. 28 strikes by the United States and Israel drove oil higher. The increase will not appear in the February CPI, which is released later this week, but it will feed into overall...
Trump’s Iran War Is Costing American Taxpayers $1 Billion a Day as the National Debt Spirals Out of Control
The Iran war, launched by the United States and Israel, is costing U.S. taxpayers roughly $800 million to $1 billion per day, far exceeding budgeted amounts. Analysts estimate that a two‑month conflict would add about $65 billion in direct war spending plus $1.4 billion...
Online Labor Demand Increased in February
The Conference Board‑Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) Index rose to 103.7 in February 2026, up 3.2% from January’s revised 100.5 reading. This marks a modest month‑over‑month gain after a 0.5% increase in December, but the index is still 9.3% lower than...
US-China Trade Update: Imports, Exports, Fentanyl Flows, and Beyond
The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted a virtual briefing that delivered fresh 2025 trade‑flow data between the United States and China, alongside analysis of fentanyl shipments and export‑control policies. Experts Chad Bown, Marcus Noland, Mary Lovely and Martin Chorzempa...
Financial Services Roundup: Market Talk
European asset managers recorded net inflows equal to 0.8% of assets in February, driven primarily by passive funds while active equity also posted modest gains. Citi analysts warn that escalating Middle East tensions could reverse the trend, prompting outflows in...