US Consumer Sentiment Slips to a Three-Month Low in March
U.S. consumer sentiment fell to a three‑month low in March, with the University of Michigan’s index slipping to 53.3, the weakest reading since December. The decline was driven by a sharp rise in oil prices—up more than 30% after the Iran conflict—and a $1 jump in gasoline to $3.98 per gallon. Inflation expectations for the next year rose to 3.8%, while middle‑ and higher‑income households with stock wealth saw the steepest sentiment drops. Economists had forecast a milder dip to 54.0, indicating broader uncertainty.
$30 an Hour by 2030: New Pushes to Increase Minimum Wage in New York and California
Campaigns in California and New York City are pushing to raise the minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030 for large employers, with Oakland and Alameda County placing ballot initiatives on the November 2026 ballot. New York City councilmember Sandy Nurse introduced...
Mortgage Rates Are Rising Again — and the Housing Market Is Feeling It
Mortgage rates have jumped from about 5.99% to roughly 6.38% according to Freddie Mac, nudging monthly payments higher and unsettling a market already wary of the spring buying season. The rise, driven by higher 10‑year Treasury yields, oil price volatility and...
Why We Should Worry About Stagflation
Economists warn that a new oil‑price shock, sparked by recent Middle‑East conflicts, is reviving stagflation risks in the United States. Phillip Braun of Kellogg notes that the current environment mirrors the 1970s, where supply disruptions and accommodative monetary policy fueled...
Fed's Miran Makes Case for Small Balance Sheet
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran urged a substantial reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet, proposing a cut of $1‑$2 trillion to restore a more neutral monetary stance. He suggested easing liquidity‑coverage‑ratio rules, destigmatizing repo and discount‑window facilities, and allowing securities to...
Goldman Says the US Could Lose 10,000 Jobs a Month This Year as the Oil Shock Ripples Through the Economy
Goldman Sachs warns that the recent oil price shock could erase about 10,000 new jobs each month in the United States through the end of 2026. The bank projects the unemployment rate climbing to roughly 4.6% by year‑end, driven by...
US Sells 7-Year Notes at 4.255% vs 4.252% WI
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $44 billion of 7‑year notes at a 4.255% yield, just 0.3 basis points above the when‑issued rate, a tighter tail than the 2.0 bps and 1.3 bps seen in recent 2‑year and 5‑year sales. Meanwhile, 2‑year yields surged 8.8 bps...
How Marketplaces Are Navigating the K Shaped Economy
The February 2026 jobs report revealed a modest 92,000‑person decline in U.S. payrolls, driven largely by government layoffs and the resolution of a nurses’ strike. While overall employment slipped, service and frontline positions remained stable, with quit rates climbing and...
The Bright Spot in the Family Budget
Since 2017, most household expenses have surged—groceries up 32%, electricity 45%, car insurance nearly doubled—yet wireless services have become cheaper. The BLS wireless telephone services index fell 10.4% from 51.7 in Q1 2017 to 46.3 in Q3 2025, delivering faster data and...
US February Import Price Index +1.3% vs +0.5% Expected
The U.S. import price index jumped 1.3% month‑over‑month in February, the strongest gain since March 2022, driven by a 3.8% rise in fuel imports and a 1.1% increase in non‑fuel goods. Capital goods such as computers and industrial machinery posted...
Inflation Remains Steady for Now
UK inflation held steady in February 2026, with the consumer price index unchanged at 3% and CPIH at 3.2%, while the retail price index slipped to 3.6%. The ongoing US‑Israeli war with Iran has sparked an energy crisis deemed worse...
America’s War, America’s Recession
The United States’ decision to go to war in Iran is poised to unleash a sharp energy and food‑price shock, compounding existing inflationary pressures. Disruptions to Middle‑East oil flows could lift gasoline and heating costs, while import‑tariff policies already stoke...
Why US and UK Monetary Policy Responses to the Iran War Differ
The article examines why the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have taken divergent monetary‑policy paths in response to the Iran‑Israel conflict. While the Fed has kept policy tight, emphasizing inflation control and using liquidity facilities to cushion market...
Powell Reveals ‘Concern’ About Job Creation in America Right Now
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that the Fed’s policy committee is increasingly concerned about a stagnating U.S. labor market. The February jobs report showed a loss of 92,000 jobs and revisions that erased gains from December and January, leaving...
The Great Easing Pause: Treasury Strategy in a Wartime Economy
The Federal Reserve paused its easing cycle in March, keeping the federal funds rate at 3.50‑3.75% after three consecutive quarter‑point cuts. This “hawkish hold” arrives amid a wartime‑style energy shock that could lift headline inflation by 0.8 percentage points and...
Retail Sales Expected to Grow 4.4% This Year
The National Retail Federation, partnered with Oxford Economics, forecasts U.S. retail sales to grow 4.4% in 2026, reaching about $5.6 trillion. This rate outpaces the ten‑year pre‑pandemic average growth of 3.6%, indicating renewed consumer momentum after the pandemic dip. The outlook,...
How the Economy Would Weather Private-Credit Defaults Rising to Financial Crisis-Like Levels
Goldman Sachs’ latest research argues that even if private‑credit defaults surge to 10%—a level seen during the 2008‑09 financial crisis—the macroeconomic fallout would be modest, trimming U.S. GDP by only 20‑50 basis points. The sector, with roughly $1.7 trillion in leveraged...
How Democrats Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Tax Cuts
Democratic lawmakers such as Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Sen. Cory Booker are proposing sweeping income‑tax cuts that would eliminate federal taxes for earners up to roughly $46,000 and $75,000 respectively, while pairing those cuts with a surtax on incomes...
Fed Continues to Hold Rates Steady
The Federal Reserve left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75%, extending the pause announced in December 2025. Officials cited elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook and the potential impact of Middle‑East tensions on U.S. growth....
Comparing New and Resale Prices: 4Q25
In Q4 2025 the median price of a new single‑family home was $405,300, about $9,600 lower than the $414,900 median for existing homes. This marks the third straight quarter where existing‑home prices exceed new‑home prices, a reversal of a decade‑long premium....
Fed's Goolsbee Says He Could See Circumstances for Rate Hike
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC he could envision the Federal Reserve raising interest rates if inflation accelerates amid the Middle‑East conflict, while also acknowledging the possibility of multiple rate cuts if price pressures ease. The Fed left policy...
Chart Of The Day: Treasuries Trashed As Inflation Fears Mount
U.S. Treasury prices have sharply declined as inflation concerns intensify, driven by surging energy commodities. Over the past month, long‑bond futures dropped six points and the 30‑year yield climbed roughly 30 basis points from its pre‑war low to 4.93%. The...
Fed Disappointment May Make This Bond ETF Appealing
The Federal Reserve has signaled no rate cuts until late 2026, disappointing many investors. With rates expected to stay steady and inflation still above target, fixed‑income managers are seeking duration‑neutral options. WisdomTree’s Floating Rate Treasury Fund (USFR), a $16.66 billion ETF...
DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Sherman on the Fed’s TACO Trade & Fixed Income Strategy
At the Exchange conference, DoubleLine deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman warned that the market’s expectation of a quick Fed rate cut—dubbed the TACO trade—is premature. He said the Fed will stay on autopilot until labor market weakness appears, and he pinpointed...
Nasdaq Tumbles 2% Amid Rate-Hike Fears: Fear & Greed Index Remains In 'Extreme Fear' Zone
The Nasdaq Composite slid 2% to 21,647 points on Friday, driven by heightened market anxiety. The CNN Money Fear & Greed Index dropped to 14.6, keeping the reading in the “Extreme Fear” zone. Investors are pricing roughly a 50% chance...
SA Asks: What Happens if the Social Security Fund Runs Dry?
The Congressional Budget Office warns that the Old‑Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund will be exhausted by 2032, primarily because fewer younger workers are contributing. Once the surplus disappears, payroll taxes will continue to fund Social Security but will only...
Washington Ignores America's Fiscal Cliff
The article warns that Washington is ignoring a looming fiscal cliff as deficits and debt surge. Recent policy moves—including a $200 billion request to fund the Iran war, the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, and tax cuts that add $3.4 trillion to ten‑year...
Fed Rate Cut Chance Hits Zero, Threatening Stagflation Where Bitcoin Thrives as a Hedge Against Long Term Inflation
Traders now price a greater than 60% chance the Federal Reserve will raise rates by October, after the March meeting left the policy range unchanged. A surge in Brent crude above $109 per barrel has pushed 10‑year Treasury yields to...
Ross Gerber Warns Inflation's Persistence Diminishes Market Optimism For Stocks And Bonds
Market strategist Ross Gerber warned that persistent inflation is dampening optimism for both equities and bonds. He observed a surge in selling pressure, indicating investors are turning more bearish. Gerber stressed that inflation is unlikely to subside soon, undermining the...
Chair Powell Has ‘No Intention’ of Leaving Fed Until DOJ Probe Ends
Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced he will stay in the role pro tem until the Department of Justice investigation into his comments concludes, extending his leadership beyond the May term expiry. Mortgage rates climbed above 6.5%, threatening the pent‑up demand...
Wholesale Prices Rise Sharply in February, Driven by Food Costs
Wholesale prices for fresh and dry vegetables surged nearly 50% in February, propelling the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final‑demand goods up 1.1% month‑over‑month—the fastest rise since August 2023. Overall wholesale food prices climbed 2.4%, with egg prices jumping over...
Feds Waller: If Oil Stays High for Months on End, at some Point It Bleeds Into Inflation
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warned that a prolonged oil price surge could seep into core inflation, making any shock more than a transitory blip. He noted that while structural inflation is edging toward the Fed’s 2% target, tariffs are...
February Retail Sales Reveal Moderate Gains
Retail sales in February rose 0.28% from January and surged 6.24% year‑over‑year, marking the fifth straight month of monthly gains. Over the first two months, total sales were up 6.04% YoY and core sales climbed 5.76%. Growth was broad‑based, with...
Map: States Where Electricity Costs Went Up the Most in 2025
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that residential electricity bills rose nearly 7 percent in 2025, double the overall inflation rate. Democrats on the Joint Economic Committee used federal data to show that while New Jersey, Indiana and Illinois saw price...
US Federal Debt Becoming ‘Alarmingly Unsustainable’ as Iran War Fuels Spending: Analysts
U.S. sovereign debt surged to $39 trillion, a level analysts deem alarmingly unsustainable, as war‑related spending on Iran adds pressure. The debt rose $2 trillion in just a few months, with Biden’s administration issuing $4.7 trillion of new 10‑year debt since 2021. Experts...
Rising Gasoline Prices and Their Impact on US Inflation and Economy
U.S. regular gasoline prices jumped nearly 90 cents to about $3.80 per gallon, while diesel rose $1.40 to just over $5, according to AAA data. The surge could cost the average household more than $600 in extra fuel expenses this...
US Household Net Worth Climbs $2.2 Trillion to Fresh Record
U.S. household net worth surged to a record $184.1 trillion in Q4, up $2.2 trillion from the previous quarter. The jump was powered by a $1.6 trillion rise in equity holdings as the S&P 500 rallied on AI‑driven earnings optimism. At the same time,...
Mortgage Rates Increase to 6.22%, Highest Level of 2026
Freddie Mac’s 30‑year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.22% this week, the highest level recorded in 2026. The 11‑basis‑point jump reflects heightened geopolitical tension, rising energy costs and renewed trade uncertainty, which have pushed inflation expectations higher despite a modest 2.4%...
The Markets Contend with Powell’s Long Goodbye at the Fed
Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell told investors he has no plans to step down, emphasizing a historic slowdown in private‑sector job creation and labor‑force growth. His remarks triggered futures markets to price in steady rates through June 2027 with only a...
Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 3/16/2026
U.S. primary market leveraged loan yields rose to 8.09% in March, the highest level since April 2025. The increase reflects broader pricing pressure on first‑lien institutional term loan Bs with a three‑year repayment horizon. Single‑B rated credits led the yield...
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Up 0.7% In February
Wholesale inflation accelerated in February, with the Producer Price Index rising 0.7% month‑over‑month, surpassing the 0.3% consensus. Core PPI, which strips out food and energy, increased 0.5% m/m and 3.9% year‑over‑year, indicating persistent underlying price pressure. Finished‑goods prices jumped 1.0%...
New Fed "Dot Plot" Sends Markets Sliding
The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged at 3.50‑3.75% and, via the latest dot‑plot, signaled only a single 25‑basis‑point cut for 2026 and another in 2027. The announcement sent the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 down between 1.3% and...
Dow Slides 768 Points on Inflation Fears: Stock Market Today
U.S. equities fell sharply on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged but highlighted persistent inflation, sending the Dow Jones down 1.6% to 46,224. Elevated producer‑price index numbers—0.7% month‑over‑month and 3.4% year‑over‑year—exceeded expectations, reinforcing concerns about price...
Global Economic Prospects: Spring 2026
The Peterson Institute for International Economics released its spring 2026 Global Economic Prospects, outlining the latest outlook for the United States and major world economies. Karen Dynan warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict and volatile energy prices are tightening growth...
Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement
The Federal Reserve’s March 18 FOMC statement kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent, pausing further hikes. The Committee noted solid economic expansion, modest job gains and a stable unemployment rate, while inflation remains somewhat elevated...
Higher Energy Prices Might Eat Your Tax Refund, Economists Say
Stanford economists estimate that rising gasoline prices could cost the average U.S. household about $740 this year, roughly matching the projected $750 boost from the 2023 tax refund legislation. Their model assumes a brief Strait of Hormuz closure, with gasoline...
Building Material Price Growth Remains Entrenched Above 3%
The Producer Price Index shows residential construction inputs rising 0.7% in February, pushing the year‑over‑year price index for new‑home inputs to 3.4%. Goods components, which make up roughly 60% of the index, climbed 1.1% month, the strongest gain since August...
Fed Meeting Updates: FOMC Set to Hold Rates Steady as Oil Prices Soar
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the March 2026 meeting. The decision follows a February jobs report that revealed a loss of roughly 100,000 positions and a sharp rise in oil...
Fed Set to Hold as Deutsche Bank Flags Geopolitics Clouding Outlook
Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to keep its policy rate unchanged at the March 2024 meeting, with only modest tweaks to the post‑meeting statement. The bank says the Fed will downplay volatile payroll data and instead spotlight rising geopolitical...
New CBO Federal Outlook Defined by Rising Costs, Imbalances, Tough Choices
The Congressional Budget Office’s 2026‑2036 outlook projects annual deficits of 6‑7% of GDP, pushing total federal debt above the size of the economy by 2026 and setting a record for publicly held debt. Social Security’s trust fund is projected to...