The Myth of an Independent Fed
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host David Bonson examines the myth of an independent Federal Reserve, using the recent appointment of Kevin Warsh as a lens. He explains how the Fed’s legal framework—created by Congress in 1913 and shaped by the Humphrey‑Hawkins Act—places it in a gray zone between the executive and legislative branches, making true independence a legal impossibility. Bonson argues that while political pressure on monetary policy is inevitable, the Fed should be insulated from short‑term political manipulation, and calls for clearer congressional legislation to define its role and accountability. He remains cautiously optimistic that Warsh will act independently within these constraints, emphasizing that the real danger lies in policy decisions driven by the Phillips curve rather than political interference.
Trump's "Systematic" Undermining of the Economy - with Justin Wolfers
In this Talking Feds episode, economist Justin Wolfers breaks down the recent 3.8% headline inflation spike, explaining the difference between headline and core CPI and why real wages are falling as price growth outpaces wage growth. He discusses how inflation...
What to Expect From a Warsh-Led Fed
J.P. Morgan chief U.S. economist Michael Ferole breaks down what to expect from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose past statements swing between hawkish and dovish. Ferole notes the FOMC is already shifting toward a more hawkish stance, with limited...
Voya's Stein: Rates Are Rising Now so They Can Fall Again Soon
In this episode, host Chuck Jaffe talks with Bryce Doty of SIT Investment Associates and Eric Stein, CIO of Voya Investment Management, about the near‑term trajectory of interest rates. Both guests argue that rates are likely to rise briefly—driven by...
Baird's Mayfield: The Fed Is Done Cutting; Market's Not Done Rising
In this episode, Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield argues that the Federal Reserve has likely finished cutting rates, despite lingering market optimism and mixed inflation data. He warns that investment theses predicated on further cuts should be reconsidered, and he...
The 4% Problem
The episode highlights three main market stories: the upcoming Trump‑Xi summit in Beijing and its potential impact on trade and rare‑earth supply, rising U.S. inflation driving a shift in Fed rate expectations toward a hike within the next year, and...
Inflation: No Quick Fix
In this episode of Inside Economics, Mark Zande, Chris Dorides, and Matt Collier dissect the latest CPI report, noting a 0.6% month‑over‑month rise in headline inflation and a 3.8% year‑over‑year rate—the highest since early 2023—driven largely by energy and food...
Sanjac Alpha's Wells: Interest Rates Will Rise This Year, Even if the Fed Cuts
In this episode, host Chuck Jaffe talks with three experts—Martha Moore on the NABE Business Conditions Survey, Matt Harris on market technicals, and Andy Wells, CIO of Sanjak Alpha—about the current economic landscape. The discussion highlights rising input costs from...
Inflation Data, War News Could Dominate Week Ahead
The Schwab Market Update for Monday, May 11, highlighted a quiet start to the week, giving investors time to digest the strong April jobs report that showed 115,000 new jobs and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate. Upcoming key data includes...
Monday: Fed on Hold as US Jobs Market Stabilises
The episode reviews a stabilising US labour market, solid April non‑farm payrolls and soft wage growth, which keep the Federal Reserve on hold as new chair Kevin Walsh prepares to take over. It also covers geopolitical tension from the closed...
Week in Review: Big Oil Bets, Jobs and Tariffs
In this episode, Reuters reporters expose roughly $7 billion in coordinated oil futures trades that timed market moves around geopolitical events, prompting regulatory scrutiny. They also discuss President Trump's renewed tariff threats on EU autos and the legal pushback that limited...
Why Is US Consumer Confidence at a Record Low?
The BBC World Business Report episode examines why US consumer confidence has plunged to a record low despite strong job growth and a booming stock market. Joanna Hsu of the University of Michigan explains that persistent high prices—especially surging gasoline...
Jobs: Soft, Stable, or Something Else
In this Inside Economics episode, Mark Zandi, Chris Derides, Mercedina Talley, and guest Dr. Dante D'Antonio dissect the April jobs report. Payroll data showed a surprisingly strong gain of 115,000 jobs, driven mainly by healthcare, transportation & warehousing, and retail,...
Macro Matters: BI’s Ira Jersey Talks Fed & US Rates Outlook
In this 11‑minute Macro Matters episode, Bloomberg Intelligence chief interest‑rate strategist Ira Jersey outlines the Fed’s likely stance over the next two to six months, predicting a hold on policy through at least September and noting the difficulty of cutting...
The Outbreak of Warsh
The episode examines the revival of Gulf public bond issuance after a two‑month war‑induced pause, highlighted by Emirates NBD’s $750 million AT1 bond that priced at 6.25% and attracted a $2 billion order book with roughly 24% international demand. Analysts discuss why...