The Metric Taking Over Earning Season
In this episode, Morgan Stanley’s Global Head of Fixed Income Research, Andrew Sheets, explains why capital expenditure on AI infrastructure is becoming the dominant metric in earnings season, eclipsing traditional earnings focus. He highlights that U.S. hyperscalers like Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta are set to spend over $600 billion this year—roughly equal to the total capex of all non‑tech S&P 500 firms in 2025—and that this spending is accelerating toward a projected $1 trillion annual rate by 2028. The massive outlays are driving a surge in semiconductor stocks and record corporate bond issuance, creating a credit‑market tension: higher capex supports AI suppliers and equity markets but also raises borrowing needs. Sheets also notes the broader macro implications, suggesting that sustained investment could boost productivity, lower inflation, and influence Federal Reserve policy.
Ray Dalio: The World Order Has Unraveled
In this episode, Ray Dalio explains his "big cycle" framework, outlining five forces—monetary, debt, political/social, geopolitical, and natural/technological—that shape the global economic order. He describes how the debt cycle functions like a circulatory system, where rising debt service relative to...
Fed Holds Rates Steady and Ends the Powell Era Deeply Divided
The Wall Street Journal’s "What's News" episode covers the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady amid an unprecedented four‑member dissent, marking the end of Jerome Powell’s chairmanship and foreshadowing a transition to Trump‑picked nominee Kevin Warsh. Powell announced he...
Wednesday - April 29, 2026
In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, host Brian Seitel reviews a mixed market day marked by a dip in major indices, rising bond yields, and a surge in oil prices driven by Middle East tensions and the UAE’s exit...
Thursday: Fed Holds with 'Hawkish' Dissenters
The episode reviews the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady, noting three dissenting governors who opposed an easing bias, and examines the market reaction, including a dip in U.S. equities and a rise in oil prices after Donald Trump’s comments...
US Consumer Confidence and Electric Vehicles
The episode examines the plunge in US consumer confidence to a record low, driven primarily by soaring gasoline prices amid the Iran‑related conflict and its ripple effects on inflation and everyday budgets. Experts Joanne Hsu and financial adviser Jacob Chen...
Global Rates: Central Banks Likely to Wait-and-See Against a Backdrop of Ongoing Middle-East Uncertainty
The episode examines upcoming policy meetings of the Fed, ECB, and BoE against the backdrop of the Middle‑East conflict and rising energy prices. Analysts attribute the US rate rise to solid consumption data and a dovish‑leaning Fed nominee, Kevin Warsh,...
Trump’s Big Bet on Immigration Isn’t Paying Off for Most Workers
The Wall Street Journal’s "What's News" episode examines President Trump’s immigration crackdown, finding little evidence that reduced immigration has boosted wages or job prospects for U.S.-born workers. Labor Department data show average hourly earnings rose 3.8% overall, but only 3.5%...
US Senators Grill New Fed Chair
The episode examines the Senate hearing of President Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh, for Federal Reserve chair, focusing on concerns about his independence, wealth, and proposed reforms to Fed policy and communication. Senators probe Warsh on his relationship with Trump, his...
Tuesday - April 21, 2026
In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, host Brian Seitel reviews a down day in the markets, noting the impact of the Iran‑U.S. tension on oil prices, inflation expectations, and rising Treasury yields. He highlights stronger‑than‑expected March retail sales, pending...
Trump's Pick for Fed Chair Heads to Capitol Hill
The episode covers President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, highlighting Warsh's testimony that balances a claim of Fed independence with the President's desire for lower interest rates. It then shifts to energy companies seeking new...
The Unemployment Spike Nobody's Talking About, Why the SpaceX IPO Doesn't Add Up, and More
In this episode the hosts examine a recent, unexpected rise in unemployment among young women, debunk the hype around a $1.7 trillion valuation tied to a potential SpaceX IPO, and discuss the economic benefits of expanding childcare infrastructure. They argue that...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Much Ado About Oil
In this J.P. Morgan Weekender episode, Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton dissect the implications of a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a broader U.S.-Iran agreement on oil markets. They outline a baseline scenario where a modest, sustained...
Is the Labor Market About to Tip Us Into Recession?
In this episode of Prop G Markets, hosts Ed and Scott discuss the looming risk that a weakening labor market could push the U.S. economy into recession, drawing on insights from labor economist Catherine Anne Edwards. They explore key indicators...
What a Time to Be a Central Bank
In this brief Marketplace segment, chief economist Diane Swank of KPMG breaks down the Federal Reserve’s looming decision on interest rates, highlighting how the war in Iran and lingering supply‑chain disruptions are pushing policymakers toward higher rates despite a surprisingly...
Trump Wants Regime Change at the Fed
In this episode, Paul Krugman warns that former President Donald Trump is attempting to undermine the Federal Reserve’s independence by pressuring for lower interest rates and targeting Fed officials. Krugman explains why monetary policy is a technical, credibility‑driven tool that...
Trump Threatens to Fire Fed Chairman
The episode examines President Donald Trump's threat to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell unless he steps down within a month, highlighting the political pressure on monetary policy and the potential fallout of such interference. Economist Claudia Ray‑Sarm explains why...
U.S. Spring Home Selling Season Is Off to a Rough Start
The episode covers three main stories: the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on global oil markets, a disappointing start to the U.S. spring home‑selling season with existing‑home sales falling 3.6% in March, and Goldman Sachs...
The “Ceasefire” Won’t Save The Economy — with Mark Zandi
In this episode of Prof G Markets, chief economist Mark Zandi discusses the economic fallout from the recent U.S.-Iran ceasefire, focusing on the $2 million per‑ship toll Iran plans to impose on the Strait of Hormuz. Zandi explains how the ceasefire...
U.S Consumer Spending Meets Caution
Morgan Stanley strategist Michelle Weaver discusses the mixed signals in U.S. consumer spending, noting that while overall spending remains positive, consumer confidence is slipping. Her AlphaWise survey shows a net spending outlook of +18% but a net confidence outlook of...
After Ceasefire Rally, Focus Turns to Inflation
The Schwab Market Update highlighted how a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East is shifting market focus back to inflation and economic data, while noting that shipping disruptions and fragile peace keep risks alive. Key data points include the upcoming...
What Keeps Big Bank CEOs up at Night
In this episode, David Brancaccio breaks down Jamie Dimon's latest shareholder letter, highlighting the CEO’s concerns about persistent inflation, rising government debt, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions that could tighten credit conditions. Experts Ari Schwader and Pavlina Czerneva explain how these...
March Jobs Report: Healthy Labor Market, Slower Supply, More Volatility
In the March employment report, the U.S. added 178,000 jobs—well above expectations—driven by rebounds in construction, leisure, hospitality, and a resolution of a health‑care strike that had hurt February’s numbers. Chief U.S. Economist Michael Ferole highlighted that the unemployment rate...
Curb Your (Job Market) Enthusiasm
In this Inside Economics episode, Mark Zandi and co‑hosts Marissa Di Natale and Chris Dorides dissect the March 2026 jobs report, highlighting a volatile payroll picture—178,000 jobs added after a revised February loss of 133,000—and a modest three‑month average gain...
Monday - March 30, 2026
The Dividend Cafe episode dissected the recent market turbulence, highlighting a volatile day where the Dow barely rose while the S&P and Nasdaq fell, and noting the outsized losses in high‑valuation tech and AI stocks like NVIDIA and Palantir. Host...
Weighing Recession Probabilities
In this Inside Economics episode, Mark Zandi and co‑hosts discuss the rising probability of a U.S. recession amid the Iran‑Israel conflict, higher oil prices, and tightening financial conditions. Using a random‑forest model that aggregates dozens of leading indicators—especially labor market...
How Do We Fix America’s Tax Problem? — with Senator Cory Booker
In this episode Senator Cory Booker discusses the "Keep Your Pay Act," which proposes making the first $75,000 of household income tax‑free while funding the loss by tightening loopholes for the ultra‑wealthy, raising the top marginal rate, and increasing the...
Why Fed Rate Cuts Could Be Pushed Back
In this episode, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. economist Michael Gapin and macro strategist Matthew Hornbach dissect the March FOMC meeting, noting the Fed’s decision to hold rates and retain an easing bias while pushing expected rate cuts from June/September to...
WATCH: The Next Inflation Wave Is Already Here
In this episode the hosts drift from light‑hearted banter about coffee‑infused drinks, relationship quirks, and upcoming birthday celebrations to a brief segue into the looming "next inflation wave" and its potential impact on everyday expenses. They share personal anecdotes about...
‘March Madness’ for Markets Too
In this brief episode, Andrew Sheets draws a parallel between March Madness basketball and the sudden shift in market narratives caused by the Iran conflict and a potential oil shock. He outlines how, after a period of strong economic signals—low...
WATCH: The 35% Recession Warning Markets Are Ignoring — with Ed Yardeni
In this episode, host Scott Yalloway recounts his surreal experience at the Vanity Fair Oscars after‑party before diving into a focused interview with Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. Yardeni explains why his team raised the probability of a U.S....
Robertson's Garretty Says War Has Put 'Recession' Back Into Conversation
In this episode of Money Life, chief economist Jeanette Garrity warns that the war in Iran has revived recession and bubble concerns, estimating a 30‑35% chance of a recession. Technical analyst Adam Grimes argues that current market volatility—especially in stocks...
Is Stagflation Creeping Into the Picture?
In this episode of Motley Fool Money, hosts Travis Hoyam, Jason Moser, and Lou Whiteman dissect the risk of stagflation in 2026, highlighting the recent dip in Q4 GDP growth to 0.7% and persistent inflation above 3%. They explore how...
Stocks at 3-Month Lows Awaiting PCE, Job Openings
The Schwab Market Update highlighted that U.S. equities slipped to three‑month lows ahead of key economic data, notably the January PCE price index and the JOLTS report, which will shape expectations for the Fed’s upcoming meeting. Rising crude oil prices,...
Macro Matters: Yield-Curve Scenarios with BNY’s Granet
In this episode, BNY Mellon CIO Jason Granet discusses the current and future shape of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, arguing that recent flattening is a temporary, cyclical retracement and that a steeper curve is likely to resume. He and...
Value Manager Smead: 'This Is One of the Most Overvalued Markets in U.S. History'
The episode examines the current overvaluation of the U.S. stock market, with value manager Bill Smead warning that metrics like the CAPE ratio and Buffett’s indicator place it in the 95th‑100th percentile of historical valuations. Smead explains his disciplined, low‑risk...
Wednesday - March 11, 2026
In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, host Brian Seitel reviews the latest market volatility driven by geopolitical tensions in Iran and rising energy prices, while noting that overall equity indices have been relatively flat. He breaks down the February...
Peter Conti-Brown on a New Fed-Treasury Accord
In this episode, host David interviews Peter Conti‑Brown about his recent essay outlining three possible reforms to the Fed‑Treasury relationship, focusing on discount‑window liquidity and its stigma. They discuss recent remarks by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Treasury Secretary Janet...
Stocks Slide After Weak February Jobs Report
The episode breaks down the surprisingly weak February jobs report, which showed a loss of 92,000 jobs and a rise in unemployment to 4.4%, highlighting sectoral declines in health care, construction, manufacturing, and hospitality. WSJ economics reporter Justin Layhart explains...
When Lower Inflation Hurts
In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, host David Bonson examines the current U.S. economic landscape, focusing on the paradox of disinflation that may arrive in 2026 but could be economically painful. He breaks down recent data—including a weaker-than-expected GDP...