U.S. Spring Home Selling Season Is Off to a Rough Start

The United States activated a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on April 13, halting vessels bound for Iranian ports. By deploying more than 15 warships, including the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, the move aims to squeeze Iran’s oil exports, which could remove up to two million barrels per day from the market. Brent crude futures have already nudged toward $100 a barrel, and analysts warn that even a brief disruption could reverberate through global energy markets, pressuring OPEC output and inflating fuel costs for consumers worldwide.

Meanwhile, the spring housing season has stumbled. The National Association of Realtors reported a 3.6% drop in existing‑home sales for March, bringing the seasonally adjusted annual rate down to 3.98 million—its lowest level since June 2025. Even though mortgage rates briefly slipped below 6% in February, buyer confidence remains fragile amid job‑market worries and the emerging Middle‑East conflict. With April data pending, analysts caution that the traditionally robust spring market may struggle to deliver the 14% annual growth once forecast, reshaping inventory strategies for builders and lenders alike.

Corporate earnings reflect the mixed backdrop. Goldman Sachs posted a 19% rise in first‑quarter profit, driven by record banking and trading revenue, while its stock slipped modestly as investors weigh Middle‑East risk. In tech, Meta is on track to overtake Google as the world’s top digital‑advertising platform, buoyed by Reels and a shift in ad spend. At the same time, a shortage of AI compute power is forcing firms such as Anthropic and OpenAI to prioritize customers and raise prices, potentially slowing the broader AI adoption curve that many investors had expected to accelerate.