10-Year Treasury Yield Trades Below Key Level After a Drop in Oil Prices Eased Inflation Fears
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields edged up to about 4.11% on Tuesday, remaining below the 200‑day moving average of 4.20%. The modest rise came as oil prices fluctuated around the $100 per barrel mark, tempering inflation concerns. Investors noted that the yield’s position under the long‑term trend line signals continued demand for safe‑haven assets. Market data from FactSet highlighted the yield’s resilience despite recent geopolitical tensions.
How Labor Market Power Shapes the Impact of Monetary Policy
A new Federal Reserve paper shows that labor‑market power dramatically reshapes how monetary policy affects employment and wages. Firms with low monopsony power increase their wage bills about 50% more than high‑monopsony firms after a 25‑basis‑point rate cut. Oligopsonistic markets...
AD&C Loan Volume Falls Despite Declining Financing Costs
Single‑family acquisition, development and construction (AD&C) loan stock slipped 1.5% in Q4 2025, reaching $456.3 billion despite two Fed rate cuts. While overall AD&C volume fell, 1‑4‑family residential construction loans rose 1.7% year‑over‑year, marking a second consecutive YoY gain. Nonaccrual and...
Retail Sales Rise for Fifth Straight Month in February, Outpacing January Gains
Retail sales in February posted modest month‑over‑month growth and robust year‑over‑year gains, marking the fifth straight month of increases. Total retail sales, excluding auto dealers and gasoline stations, rose 0.28% from January and were up 6.24% compared with February 2025....
Private Canaries
A new University of Chicago paper shows that private‑sector data—ADP payroll figures, Vanguard income and hiring metrics, and JPMorgan Chase checking‑account transactions—can reliably forecast the first and third releases of the BLS non‑farm payrolls and core CPI. The study argues that...
US February NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 98.8 vs 99.6 Expected
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped to 98.8 in February, missing the 99.6 consensus. Despite the dip, the reading stays above the 52‑year historical average of 98. NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg noted higher sales and profits but warned...
Private Sector Pay Rises Climb to 3.4 Percent as Cost of Living Pressure Persists
Private‑sector median pay awards rose to 3.4% in the three months to January 2026, up from 3.0% previously. One‑fifth of private settlements now exceed 4%, indicating growing pressure to offset lingering cost‑of‑living stresses despite easing inflation. Manufacturing saw its median...
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Workers Hold on Tight to Jobs as Hiring Slows and Layoffs Rise
The New York Federal Reserve’s February consumer survey shows the expected quit rate fell to 15.9%, the lowest in more than a decade, as employers shed 92,000 jobs. Hiring slowed dramatically, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting a 3.3%...
Redfin Economists’ Weekly Take: Mortgage Rates Poised For Volatility As Iran Conflict Escalates and Inflation Data Looms
Redfin economists warn that mortgage rates could remain volatile as the Iran‑Israel conflict drives oil prices toward levels last seen during the Ukraine war and fresh inflation data arrives. February core CPI is projected to rise 0.2% month‑over‑month, while the...
Recession Odds Jump on Kalshi After Oil Tops $100
Prediction‑market platform Kalshi saw recession odds climb above 34% on Monday, the highest level since November, after U.S. crude oil breached the $100 per barrel threshold. The surge in oil prices follows recent Middle‑Eastern output cuts and the closure of...
Construction Loses 11,000 Jobs in February
The construction sector shed 11,000 jobs in February, according to ABC’s analysis of BLS data. Despite the monthly decline, employment is up 42,000 jobs year‑over‑year, a modest 0.5% gain. Nonresidential construction fell 3,800 positions, driven by a 6,500‑job loss in...
Can the US Afford Trump’s Iran War?
President Donald Trump has launched a direct military campaign against Iran despite a domestic economy plagued by rising unemployment and stubborn inflation. The article argues that the conflict will further erode public finances, adding new pressure on the federal budget....
Mortgage and Refinance Interest Rates Today, March 9, 2026: Moving Higher with Bond Market Anxiety
Mortgage rates rose on March 9, with the average 30‑year fixed climbing to 5.98% and the 15‑year fixed to 5.50%, driven by bond market anxiety from Middle East tensions and a weak jobs report. Refinance rates are higher, with the 30‑year...
US Gold Revaluation Could Wipe Out 70% of Budget Deficit Amid West Asia Conflict
A new SBI Research report suggests that revaluing the United States’ gold reserves at current market prices could eliminate roughly 70% of the federal budget deficit. The reserves are still recorded at 1973 valuation levels, creating a massive accounting gap....
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Edged Up Again in February
The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index edged higher in February, reaching 105.37 from 105.18 in January. The modest rise was driven mainly by a drop in involuntary part‑time work and a slight improvement in firms’ ability to fill vacancies. However,...
Bad Jobs Report: Blame It on the Weather
The February 2026 jobs report showed a modest gain that was largely distorted by severe weather disruptions, according to Dean Baker’s analysis. While the headline numbers suggested a stable labor market, underlying data reveal that job growth has slowed sharply...
When Neighbours Stop Knocking: The Hidden Impact of Canada’s 2025 Tourism Decline on US Local Labour Markets
In 2025, Canadian tourism to the United States dropped 25% after heightened geopolitical tensions and Trump‑era rhetoric. The decline hit service‑oriented ZIP codes where Canadian visitors comprised at least 1% of foot traffic, leading to a 6% employment contraction in...
Fed ‘Utterly Paralyzed’ as Iran Conflict Stokes Stagflation Fears
The Federal Reserve entered 2026 optimistic about a soft landing, but the sudden Iran‑Israel conflict has driven crude above $95 per barrel, pushing gasoline prices to record highs and reviving cost‑push inflation concerns. A weak jobs report further erodes labor‑market...
Fed's Hammack: Dollar Dominance Remains Intact as Fed Stays Patient
Federal Reserve President Christopher Hammack warned that inflation remains too high and broadly based, signaling that the central bank will likely keep interest rates on hold for an extended period. He reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to its inflation mandate while...
February Logistics Manager’s Index Heads up to 61.5 as Lean Inventories Tighten Transportation Capacity and Push up Freight Rates
The Logistics Manager’s Index rose to 61.5 in February, the strongest reading since February 2025 and above the long‑term average of 61.3. Inventory levels slipped to 53.8 while inventory cost pressure eased, yet warehousing utilization accelerated and transportation prices jumped...
Fed's Collins: Expects the Fed Rate Target to Hold Steady for some Time
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Collins signaled that the central bank’s policy rate will likely remain unchanged for the foreseeable future. He emphasized that any future rate cuts will require clear evidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward the 2% target....
Fed Governor Miran Says Job Losses in February Add to the Case for More Interest Rate Cuts
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said the February jobs report, which showed a loss of 92,000 non‑farm payrolls, strengthens the case for additional rate cuts. He argued that inflation is not a pressing problem and that monetary policy is currently...
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Restaurants and Bars Lost Nearly 30K Jobs in February
The February 2026 jobs report showed U.S. employers shed 92,000 positions, pushing unemployment to 4.4%. Within hospitality, restaurants and bars shed nearly 30,000 jobs, marking the first monthly decline after eight straight gains. The loss is largely attributed to Winter...
Senate Democrat’s New Tax Proposal Could Change Paychecks for Millions
Senator Chris Van Hollen introduced a bill to eliminate federal income tax for individuals earning up to $46,000 and married couples earning up to $92,000, potentially covering nearly half of U.S. workers. The measure would raise the number of taxpayers...
Kevin Warsh Is in for a Rude Awakening
Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor and Donald Trump’s pick, has been nominated to chair the Federal Reserve. Warsh is known for advocating aggressive rate cuts and a loose monetary stance that many analysts deem risky in the current inflationary...
U.S. Economy Loses 92,000 Jobs in February
The U.S. labor market contracted in February as nonfarm payrolls dropped by 92,000, marking the second‑largest monthly loss since early 2025. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% and the labor‑force participation rate fell to 62.0%, the lowest level since...
Trucking Jobs Post Slight Decline in Unexpected Total Payroll Drop
The February nonfarm payroll report showed an unexpected 92,000‑job decline, with truck transportation employment slipping by 500 to 1,462,500 positions. This marks a 22,100‑job shortfall compared with a year earlier and a net loss of 4,700 jobs since December. Warehouse...
US Stocks: US Retail Sales Decline as Consumer Pullback Deepens
US retail sales slipped 0.2% month‑on‑month in January, bringing total sales to $733.5 billion, though they remain 3.2% higher than a year ago. The decline outperformed the modest growth forecast but was attributed to severe winter weather curbing brick‑and‑mortar traffic. Health‑care,...
The Day Million-Dollar Earners Get Richer by Stiffing Social Security
The article explains that once a worker’s earnings exceed the Social Security payroll tax ceiling—$160,200 in 2024—high‑income earners stop paying the 6.2 % tax on additional wages. This “cap” lets million‑dollar earners retain more of their income while their future benefits...
U.S. Economy Lost an Alarming 92,000 Jobs in February: Private Sector Experienced Vast Majority of Losses, One-Third Were Due to...
The U.S. labor market contracted sharply in February, shedding 92,000 jobs, with the private sector absorbing the bulk of the loss. Temporary strikes in health care accounted for roughly one‑third of the decline, while manufacturing shed another 12,000 positions, bringing...
US Stocks: Fed Rate Cut Bets Rise After Weak Jobs Data
Weak February employment data, showing a loss of 92,000 jobs, coincided with oil prices climbing to $90 a barrel and U.S. gas prices jumping 10%. The mixed signals have revived investor expectations that the Federal Reserve could pivot to a...
Dollar Falls After Weak U.S. Jobs Data
U.S. non‑farm payrolls unexpectedly dropped 92,000 in February, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.4% and prompting analysts to anticipate further Federal Reserve rate cuts. The dollar index (DXY) slipped to 99.063 from 99.308 as markets digested the weaker labor...
Builders Identify Key Long-Term Forces Shaping Housing Demand and Industry Health
Home builders surveyed by NAHB/Wells Fargo evaluated 14 long‑term forces that could shape housing demand over the next decade. They identified five risks—government debt, declining fertility, long‑term inflation, falling marriage rates, and energy costs—as likely to weigh on industry health....
CPA Business Executives Have Renewed Optimism About the U.S. Economy
CPA executives showed a notable lift in optimism about the U.S. economy in Q1 2026, with 39% expressing a positive outlook—up from 28% a quarter earlier. Confidence in their own firms also rose, reaching 47% versus 41% in Q4 2025, and 55%...
Affordability Posts Mild Gains in Second Half of 2025 but Crisis Continues
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Cost of Housing Index shows a modest uptick in affordability in Q4 2025, with a median‑priced new home requiring 34 % of a typical family’s income and an existing home 34 % as well. Low‑income households still face severe strain, needing...
What Makes America Strong?
In 2025 the United States recorded a negative net migration rate as legal immigration was sharply curtailed, a trend that economists warn will dampen economic growth. President Donald Trump has framed this demographic shift as part of a broader “Golden...
Challenger Report: February Cuts Plunge, YTD Hiring Falls 56%
U.S. employers announced 48,307 job cuts in February, a 55% drop from January and 72% lower than February 2025. Year‑to‑date cuts total 156,742, the lowest Jan‑Feb figure since 2022 but still the fifth‑highest since 2009. While overall cuts fell, sectors...
Bond Traders See Increasing Chance Of No Fed Cuts This Year
Bond options traders are increasingly betting the Federal Reserve will not cut rates this year. The probability of a no‑cut scenario rose to 25% by Wednesday, up from 17% before the Iran‑Israel conflict escalated. Higher oil prices from the Middle‑East...
Mortgage Rates Dipped Below 6% in February Amid Treasury Rally
Mortgage rates slipped further in February, with the 30‑year fixed‑rate mortgage averaging 6.05% and briefly dipping below the 6% mark, while the 15‑year rate fell to 5.43%. The 10‑year Treasury yield held near 4.18% for most of the month before...
Missouri House Panel Advances Plan to Phase Out State’s Income Tax, But Hurdles Remain
Missouri’s House Commerce Committee advanced a constitutional amendment that would let voters approve a plan to phase out the state’s 4.7% individual income tax in favor of higher sales and use taxes. The proposal, championed by Gov. Mike Kehoe and...
Trump Officially Nominates Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair as Iran War Complicates Path for Rate Cuts
President Donald Trump formally nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, aiming for quicker interest‑rate cuts. Warsh, known for advocating balance‑sheet reduction and lower rates, faces a skeptical FOMC amid the escalating U.S.-Israeli...
US Activity Was Surging Ahead of Military Action
U.S. ISM surveys show the economy accelerating in early 2026, with the February services index climbing to 56.1 and overall business activity reaching 59.9, the strongest pace since May 2024. New orders and order backlogs also surged, supporting a projection...
EPI’s Updated Family Budget Calculator Shows that Higher Minimum Wages Are Needed in States Like Oklahoma to Afford the Cost...
The Economic Policy Institute’s updated 2025 Family Budget Calculator reveals that the federal‑state minimum wage of $7.25 is far below the hourly earnings needed to cover basic expenses in every U.S. county, with Oklahoma exemplifying the shortfall. In Oklahoma’s cheapest...
Abercrombie & Fitch Forecasts Muted Annual Sales Amid Tariff Uncertainty
Abercrombie & Fitch announced it will factor a 15 percent U.S. tariff into its fiscal 2026 outlook, projecting net‑sales growth of 3‑5 percent and earnings per share between $10.20 and $11. The company estimates the tariff will shave about 70 basis points...
Sanders, Khanna Introduce Wealth Tax Bill Targeting Billionaires
Senators Bernie Sanders and Rep. Ro Khanna introduced the Make Billionaires Pay Their Fair Share Act, proposing a 5 percent annual wealth tax on the 938 U.S. billionaires who hold $8.2 trillion collectively. The tax would raise about $4.4 trillion, funding $3,000 direct payments...
Indian Rupee Tumbles to a New Record Low Amid the US-Iran War. What's Next?
The Indian rupee fell to a new record low as the US‑Iran conflict sparked safe‑haven buying of the dollar and pushed oil prices higher. Higher oil costs and the realization that U.S. rate cuts may be delayed have lifted inflation...
Trump’s Unaffordable Midterm Stimulus
The Congressional Budget Office released a stark outlook showing U.S. deficits expanding by nearly $1.5 trillion and the debt‑to‑GDP ratio surpassing 115 percent. President Donald Trump is proposing a fresh stimulus package—accelerated infrastructure grants, tax rebates, and expanded credit for small firms—designed...
US Dollar Index Rises Above 99.00 as Middle East Tensions Drive Inflation Fears
The US Dollar Index surged past the 99‑point mark, trading around 99.20 for a third consecutive day, as investors reassessed Federal Reserve rate‑cut expectations. The 10‑year Treasury yield steadied near 4.06%, reflecting higher real yields amid rising inflation concerns. Escalating...
IVOO: Multiplier Effects Gone In The AI-Age, Avoiding Cyclicals And Discretionary
The Vanguard S&P Mid‑Cap 400 ETF (IVOO) is heavily weighted toward cyclical sectors, with about 65% in discretionary, financials, industrials, materials and real estate. The analyst warns that uncertain U.S. consumer demand, rising unemployment and AI‑driven productivity gains could dampen...
Multifamily Absorption Rate Remains Below 50%
The Census Bureau’s SOMA report shows the three‑month absorption rate for new apartments stayed below 50% for the fourth consecutive quarter, slipping to 47% in Q2 2026. Despite modest growth in completions—over 90,000 units for the seventh straight quarter—median asking...